Walking for President; Lodge 64

[Jerseyrules]

So Henry Cabot Lodge won several early primaries in 1964 as a write-in candidate, and then made a speech declairing that he wasn't a presidential candidate.  What if he decided to run?  Would he do better than Barry?  Who would be his running mate?  Would this have any lasting effect on Rocky's career if all the GOP liberals/moderates jump ship?  Would Lodge have a snowball's chance in Hell of beating Johnson?  What about if his opponent was JFK?  Discuss.

[Jerseyrules]

Map would be somewhat reversed. Instead of Goldwater getting the South and AZ, we see Lodge get VT, ME, and maybe NH. But as far as I'd say, that's it. LBJ wins a landslide reminiscent of the 1936 map, or if Lodge is lucky, the 1940 map.

How bout Lodge vs. JFK: the rematch?  Might he carry NY or MA?  How about Lodge / Goldwater vs. Johnson / HHH?

[Jerseyrules]

By far the most optimistic case I can think of:

Henry Cabot Lodge / Nelson Rockefeller (or Miller) vs. John F. Kennedy / Hubert Humphery vs. George Wallace / Happy Chandler

[Jerseyrules]

Affairs come out, Nixon wins govship in 62 and campaigns tirelessly nationwide, LBJ begins to go too far in being "his own man," etc. causes HCL to win in an upset.  Goldwater actually endorses Lodge, and Congress is anyone's guess.

[Jerseyrules]

Man, why ya hatin' on JFK? Lodge never really cared about the Presidency, but if he did get off as his white Massachusetts ass to actively campaign, I doubt he'd excite the base that much. Conservatives were organizing throughout the early sixties in preparation to beat back Rockefeller and start a revolution. With Lodge, that's one more disappointment. While I like the man more than Rocky, when he joined the Senate he was known as one of the new class of post-New Deal moderates and in later years (1952), he was known more as a relatively fiscally conservative, but foreign policy moderate Senator. He'd probably try to pull a Nixon and unite the party around its center, but probably fail.

I love the Kennedy's; I'm just trying to think of someone who could crash and burn less than Goldylocks in 1964

[Jerseyrules]

Man, why ya hatin' on JFK? Lodge never really cared about the Presidency, but if he did get off as his white Massachusetts ass to actively campaign, I doubt he'd excite the base that much. Conservatives were organizing throughout the early sixties in preparation to beat back Rockefeller and start a revolution. With Lodge, that's one more disappointment. While I like the man more than Rocky, when he joined the Senate he was known as one of the new class of post-New Deal moderates and in later years (1952), he was known more as a relatively fiscally conservative, but foreign policy moderate Senator. He'd probably try to pull a Nixon and unite the party around its center, but probably fail.

I love the Kennedy's; I'm just trying to think of someone who could crash and burn less than Goldylocks in 1964

Lots of people could do it less. few to nobody could actually win under OTL circumstances.

So let's say that the GOP does better with either Rocky or Lodge; someone with a bit more electability than Goldwater in 64.  The GOP does better in Congressional elections, actually gaining some senate and house seats, and takes back the House in 66, coming close to doing so in the senate.  Goldwater beats out Romney for the nomination; takes out either McCarthy, Bobby, or HHH in 64, and then what?  (This is kind of a TL I've had brewing .)

[Jerseyrules]

Lodge couldn't win in 1964 whether the Democratic candidate was either LBJ or JFK. Lodge was uncharismatic, and relatively boring and both LBJ and JFK were wildly popular at the time.
On the other hand it would of suppressed the "Silent Majority" in the GOP, but I think it was inevitable that a Goldwaterite eventually wins the nomination. This could very well let Reagan win in 68', because the scare over getting wacked like in 64' by nominating a conservative probably wont resonate as much.

This was the reason why Reagan was so timid to enter the race in 68 and why Nixon became the anointed one (Goldwater's ass-whooping 4 years earlier), and arguably why Perry, the arch conservative from Texas, was the anointed one this time around.

[Jerseyrules]

JFK/LBJ (353) - Lodge/Romney (168) - Uncommitted (17)

VA and TN and KY but no California?

[Jerseyrules]

JFK/LBJ (353) - Lodge/Romney (168) - Uncommitted (17)

VA and TN and KY but no California?

VA, TN and KY had gone to Nixon by a healthy margin 4 yrs earlier. CA was very close in 1960, and I think JFK would improve his performance there.

But LODGE?  The guy who ruined it for Nixon in the South by pledging a black appointee to the cabinet?  And I'll have to check on this, but he may have been a Catholic as well

[Jerseyrules]

JFK/LBJ (353) - Lodge/Romney (168) - Uncommitted (17)

VA and TN and KY but no California?

VA, TN and KY had gone to Nixon by a healthy margin 4 yrs earlier. CA was very close in 1960, and I think JFK would improve his performance there.

But LODGE?  The guy who ruined it for Nixon in the South by pledging a black appointee to the cabinet?  And I'll have to check on this, but he may have been a Catholic as well

No, Lodge was a "Boston Brahmin" Episcopalian.  A good case could be made for flipping those states to JFK, but I think it would have been close either way.

Interesting.  But what about if Nixon had won the CA governorship, could he have done better than both Barry and Lodge in 64?  Could he win?

[Jerseyrules]

Lodge vs. JFK the rematch?  Lodge was Nixon's running mate in 1960.

Yep, and he was defeated by JFK for senate in 52.  So I was also thinking: would MA be close?  What if Lodge ran for Governor of MA in 58, wins, and then challenges Kennedy as a moderately popular 3-term governor of his (and JFK's) home state?

[Jerseyrules]

Lodge vs. JFK the rematch?  Lodge was Nixon's running mate in 1960.

Yep, and he was defeated by JFK for senate in 52.  So I was also thinking: would MA be close?  What if Lodge ran for Governor of MA in 58, wins, and then challenges Kennedy as a moderately popular 3-term governor of his (and JFK's) home state?

1960 demonstrated that it was the Kennedy's and such that had sway in MA. Only twice since then has MA gone Republican, and the first was by less than 50%, and both were during land-slides. It wasn't even close in 1960 as I recall.

You're right about that.  But that was with Lodge out-of-office eight years, and without any real campaigning done by Lodge or Nixon in that state.  So if Lodge has been an effective governor for six years, would that change anything?

[Jerseyrules]

Maybe make it "reasonably close", but I don't think seriously contested.

Alright.  Even if it was a generally close election to begin with?

[Jerseyrules]

I know I would've voted for him!!!

So would he have carried the banner better than Rocky?