PUTTING YOUR OWN VIEWS ASIDE, WHO WILL REALLY WIN?

[Jake]

Casey is obviously the favorite, but we'll see how everything shakes out.  Santorum will have more money in this race due to pro-choice group not giving as much as they would to Hafer, but heavy hitters like Rendell, Gore, Dean, Clinton compare well to Santorum's possible campaigners like Specter, Guliani, Bush, Frist, etc.  In the end, I guess Casey will win by around 4-5 points.

[Jake]

Casey will win if and only if he can keep the pro-abortion radicals from destroying his warchest and reputation in the primaries and from running a third party candidate in the general.

There will probably be no Green or Constitution party candidates. The Libertarians, however, will probably run someone and could attract some votes on the abortion issue.

No, I think there is a good chance of a Green candidate running and possibly doing as well as Clymer did this year.  Even if Casey loses 3 points to a Greenie, that could cost him the race.

[Jake]

The important thing to note is, Santorum, ideologically is closer to the philly burbs than casey is...

they might both be far out...but Santorum's to the moon, Casey...Mars.

OK, PA types, how do these two candidates match up ideologically in Pittsburgh and its suburbs...or the T...or Erie, etc.? Who is closer, and how much difference will it make? Enough to counter the RINO's of Philadelphia?

Those are really the questions it all hinges on, right?

Erie- Casey fits perfectly
North/Central- Santorum will win by large margins
NEPA- Casey's home turf and an ideological perfect fit for him
York/Lancaster- Santorum by alot
Capital/Central- Santorum will win handily
Outer Philly Burbs- Santorum has the advantage
Montco/Bucks- Ask Phil
Philly- Rendell turnout will drive Casey to large margins here
Pittsburgh- Santorum's home area, but also close to Casey ideologically, toss up I would guess

[Jake]

It's not *all* the name...he did a really good job as Auditor General.

It's the name.

He could have done a crappy job as Auditor General, and his name wouldn't have got him anywhere.

It's the name.  A Democrat doesn't win by 30+ points by "doing a good job". Not in PA.  The reason almost 15% of Bush voters also voted for Casey was the name.  Same reason why Bill Scranton is still in the running to be Governor.  Casey isn't a fool, but he would never be where he is today without the name.