Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
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« on: March 04, 2005, 06:59:28 PM » |
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Not 2006, but it is possible in 2008.
Why not in 2006
1) In 2006, the Democrats won't have the presidential race to bring out the voters they need to knock off those GOP incumbents.
2) There are just to many seats to take back in one go. Unless their is a major scandal that takes President Bush's campaign advantage out of the picture, Democrats can't make big enough gains.
3) Their leadership sucks. If Nancy Pelosi got hit by a tour bus tommorrow, their chances of 5-10 seat pickup in '06 go up considerably.
Why in 2008,
1) There will be a presidential race to bring out the voters. If not for the Texas gerrymander, the Democrats would've picked up seats this year. They most likely will in '08.
2) The key states are already pretty gerrymandered. The GOP got all they will get in 2002/2004, except maybe a Georgia seat this time around.
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