An early look at 2006 House races

[Jake]

RS-Rock Solid
SF-Safe
ST-Strong
LN-Lean
TO-Tossup

PA  1 RS Dem
PA  2 RS Dem
PA  3 SF GOP
PA  4 ST GOP if Heinz runs
PA  5 RS GOP
PA  6 LN GOP imcubency for Gerlach
PA  7 SF GOP
PA  8 LN GOP RINO factor can't be discounted, now they need a good candidate
PA  9 RS GOP
PA 10 SF GOP
PA 11 SF Dem unless Kanjorski retires
PA 12 RS Dem
PA 13 ST Dem I'll leave this one for Phil & ID
PA 14 RS Dem
PA 15 SF GOP
PA 16 RS GOP
PA 17 SF Dem Unless Holden runs for Senate, in which case  ST GOP
PA 18 SF GOP
PA 19 RS GOP

As of now, competitive races are PA 6, 8 maybe 4,13

Shout me down

[Jake]

RS-Rock Solid
SF-Safe
ST-Strong
LN-Lean
TO-Tossup

PA  1 RS Dem
PA  2 RS Dem
PA  3 SF GOP
PA  4 ST GOP if Heinz runs
PA  5 RS GOP
PA  6 LN GOP imcubency for Gerlach
PA  7 SF GOP
PA  8 LN GOP RINO factor can't be discounted, now they need a good candidate
PA  9 RS GOP
PA 10 SF GOP
PA 11 SF Dem unless Kanjorski retires
PA 12 RS Dem
PA 13 ST Dem I'll leave this one for Phil & ID
PA 14 RS Dem
PA 15 SF GOP
PA 16 RS GOP
PA 17 SF Dem Unless Holden runs for Senate, in which case  ST GOP
PA 18 SF GOP
PA 19 RS GOP

As of now, competitive races are PA 6, 8 maybe 4,13

Shout me down

Wait. How can PA 4 be strong Republican if Heinz runs? If anything, it would be closer. I still think Hart can beat him though.

Also, PA 13 will never be "strong" Dem.

I was going to put a ? after the If Heinz runs.  If he runs maybe Lean Hart.

As for PA 13, Schwartz smacked down Melissa Brown by what, 20 points?  Incumbency and that beating make it Strong Dem in my eyes. But, you know it best.

[Jake]

STOP WITH THE PENNSYLVANIA SEATS ITS MAKING ME SICK

I think PA politics is the best covered area on this site.  I love it

[Jake]

Hopefully Kanjorski can retire so PA-11 can become competitive for a change.  BTW, has any else heard anything about Kanjorski retiring. I saw one little blurb in the paper back in October, that mainly said he was just going term by term.

[Jake]

Hopefully Kanjorski can retire so PA-11 can become competitive for a change.  BTW, has any else heard anything about Kanjorski retiring. I saw one little blurb in the paper back in October, that mainly said he was just going term by term.

Think we could really have a chance in PA 11?

Unless the Luzerne Cty Democrats implode even more, I'd say at the very least it leans Democrat.  I can't think of a big name Republican besides Mayor Barletta who ran in '02 and the Minority Commishioner Urban who isn't extremely popular.  State Senator Lemmond could run for the GOP.  He is quite uninspiring and dry, but would be decent.

The Democrats will have Kevin Blaum, who I would give the advantage in a primary to.  State Senator Robert Mellow could run.  Also, State Rep Ed Staback is a conservative Democrat who could win easily.  He is quite old and influential in the PADems so he may not run.

The most likely race IMO, would be Blaum vs. Urban, mostly due to name recognition.  The result of that would be 57-63% Blaum & 37-43% for Urban.  The best GOP candidate is probably Lemmond, though I doubt he'd give up his safe Senate seat for a likely loss.