Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If he really gets a 150K lead then he likely wins but things are murkier with only 125K. So far it’s 90K with only 1,1% of Peruvian vote to go (which means around 120K to be counted).

I thought that calculation was based on how much he needed to be ahead in the domestic vote to counter the expat vote? He's at 110k in Peru and will almost certainly reach 130k. It doesn't seem logical to mix the domestic vote and the already counted expat vote when making a prognosis.

That was what Lustration said. We’re all fumbling around in the dark here.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.

Lmao literally everyone is dooming.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I'm starting to feel comfortable calling this for Castillo. Not there yet though...

Yeah, he’s at a 125k vote lead in Peru with 1% left to count. Keiko will need a Miami miracle to pull this out.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yeah, this feels like a November 2020 situation, where after some initial confusion the eventual result has only grown more and more apparent, but the media is too cautious to officially call it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So who do we think will be Castillo’s (first) PM?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

the actas to count are much more, also the actas sent to JNE are to count

more than what??

I guess he means the comparatively larger number of boxes sent to the JNE because of some administrative error. However these will likely be negligible partisan wise, cause errors should be random and not correlated to anything.

Unless, of course, one thinks that Perú Libre is committing a systematic fraud in Lima.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New vote dump from within the country (looks like Huancavelica?) pushes Castillo’s lead back up to over 80,000 votes. Lead within Peru is close to 150,000.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ayacucho went from 90% to 95% in. Castillo’s overall lead is now over 92,000.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

A bit off topic, but I just think about this: in case Keiko Fujimori lose the election (which is appearing very likely now), she would join the very exclusive club of ‘politicians having lost three presidential runoffs in a raw, each time against a different candidate’ whose, to my knowledge, the only other member is Álvaro Noboa from neighboring Ecuador. Noboa was firstly defeated in 1998 presidential runoff 48.8-51.2 by Jamil Mahuad (who was overthrown two years later in a civic-military coup), was again defeated in 2002 45.2-54.8 by Lucio Gutiérrez (who was impeached and forced to flee the country in 2005) and once more defeated in 2006 43.3-56.7 by Rafael Correa. He made two other presidential bids, one in 2009 when he placed third in the first round with 11.4%, and another one in 2013 when he placed fifth and received a pitiful 3.7%. He unsuccessfully tried to once more embarrass himself run for president this year but his candidacy was rejected by the electoral authorities.

The comparison with Noboa is especially unflattering for Fujimori because the Ecuadorian banana tycoon is a spectacularly catastrophic politician (as exemplified by the fact he became more and more unpopular at each presidential bid and that he received his best result when actively supported by Abdalá Bucaram, a literal populist buffoon who had lasted six months as president before being removed from office for his corruption, incompetence and whimsical behavior, then living in exile) who literally tried to buy the election with massive distribution of ‘freebies’ if not bank notes to voters but never had any coherent political strategy (the fact he just doesn’t care at all about what is happening in politics between each presidential election doesn’t help; I remember having read an article quite accurately describing his presidential bids as ‘a hobby’) nor half-credible platform in addition of being exceptionally uncharismatic and a nutcase who became increasingly hard to take seriously to the point he is now widely seen as a living political meme.

She will be seen as the biggest failure in Peruvian political history.

And speaking of her likely loss, the overall margin is 107k votes in favor of Castillo, over 170k within Peru itself. We are approaching the land of mathematical impossibility.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Looks certain that Castillo’s margin will be bigger than PPK’s in 2016 when all is said and done.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Julio Guzmán is retiring from politics.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So the reality is that this JNE issue may be bigger than previously thought. Domestically, two-thirds of stations sent to the JNE were due to contested ballots (by campaigns/observers/etc) or material errors. A bit over 70% of these stations are in Lima. As I heard, Peru Libre was being quite liberal with ballot challenges, which means if all of these stations' votes have left to be counted, the domestic JNE totals could skew quite substantially to Keiko. The expat stations won't have such skewing because there aren't campaign presences and meddling along the same lines.

Enough for her to win? I doubt it. But if she's sitting at 70% or more among these combined JNE totals (domestic + expat), it might not be over.

Aren’t they already included in the Actas Procesadas? That’s what I was about to say in answer to Nathan’s question - contabilizadas + observadas (sent to the JNE) = procesadas. Am I making a mistake somewhere?

Edit: looking at the ONPE they are definitely included in the Actas Procesadas, but not in the Actas Contabilizadas. So they technically do have left to be counted, but I assume they’re already included in the topline ONPE numbers that we’ve all been working with.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So the reality is that this JNE issue may be bigger than previously thought. Domestically, two-thirds of stations sent to the JNE were due to contested ballots (by campaigns/observers/etc) or material errors. A bit over 70% of these stations are in Lima. As I heard, Peru Libre was being quite liberal with ballot challenges, which means if all of these stations' votes have left to be counted, the domestic JNE totals could skew quite substantially to Keiko. The expat stations won't have such skewing because there aren't campaign presences and meddling along the same lines.

Enough for her to win? I doubt it. But if she's sitting at 70% or more among these combined JNE totals (domestic + expat), it might not be over.

Aren’t they already included in the Actas Procesadas? That’s what I was about to say in answer to Nathan’s question - contabilizadas + observadas (sent to the JNE) = procesadas. Am I making a mistake somewhere?

Edit: looking at the ONPE they are definitely included in the Actas Procesadas, but not in the Actas Contabilizadas. So they technically do have left to be counted, but I assume they’re already included in the topline ONPE numbers that we’ve all been working with.

Yes, as far as overall turnout numbers go, they are included. See the formula on the page:



Currently, this produces 84727 and 86488, respectively. This produces a non-JNE number of 97.96%.

Actas procesadas are currently 85965: as a share of 86488, that gives you the 99.40% that's shown at the top of the elections page.

Right, so I don’t think there’s a hidden batch of Keiko votes waiting to be counted that we don’t know about, unless the JNE reviews all the challenged votes and gives 100% of them to her. It seems like it really is over.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Sestak and I (mostly Sestak) has been crawling through Lima (departments and provinces) to see where these JNE stations actually are and how these areas are voting. After doing some estimations, we're both pretty convinced that Lima, Lima JNEs will only favor Keiko somewhere in the 64-66% range: basically identical to the overall provincial vote thus far. If she's not hitting 70% here, then it's damn difficult to see it happening overall.

All greatly appreciated, of course.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Well, this is happening:

https://twitter.com/CNNEE/status/1403041774038290433

Prosecutor requests that Keiko Fujimori be held in preventive detention for the Odebrecht case, according to Andina agency

Prosecutor José Domingo Pérez, head of the special team that works on investigations related to alleged acts of corruption at Odebrecht, asked a judge to revoke the summons with restrictions that was issued against Keiko Fujimori, presidential candidate of Fuerza Popular, and impose again preventive detention against her.

As reported on Thursday by the state-run Andean Agency, she is accused of allegedly violating the rules of conduct imposed by the court that ordered her release when she met with a witness in the case. CNN is seeking Fujimori's reaction.

(...)

Lmao the “meeting with a witness in the case” was her holding a press conference with him (Miguel Torres) to try and throw out 200.000 ballots in the south. The official request says she was “captured on camera” meeting with him like it’s some sting operation and then just has screenshots from the news.

Also some judge granted Vladimir Cerrón’s request for habeas corpus and (it seems) has annulled his prison sentence, pending appeal, so people are mad about that.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The very last few ballots arrived from way deep in the Amazon, up near Ecuador. 100% processed, Castillo’s margin is just under 70,000 votes (nice).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Could someone more knowledgeable speak to this? I was unaware it was possible to extend the deadline for contested votes, and apparently the judge has ties with Fujimori. Is this a soft coup attempt or is this unfounded?

https://twitter.com/VladEmpanada/status/1403438712642543619?s=19

It’s not really possible, and as Nathan said they just reversed it after massive backlash - from both sides (obviously Castillo’s supporters were not happy about it, but some fujimoristas were also displeased because it meant Perú Libre could attempt to challenge votes in pro-Keiko areas as well). The only JNE judge to vote to continue the extended deadline was Luis Arce Córdova, the one with corruption accusations and ties to corrupt former constitutional court justice Cesar Hinostroza.

So thankfully that part of the roller coaster ride is over.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

As predicted multiple days ago, we're on track for a 45k-vote Castillo win. Current margin is 51082: the remaining 45 JNEs appear to be on track to net Keiko another 2k votes, and Peru (67/69 stations remaining are in Lima; the other 2 in Keiko strongholds) will net her another 4k on top of that.

EXPAT JNES - 45
11 Argentina   
8 Canada   
4 Germany   
4 Spain      
4 Switzerland   
3 Austria   
2 UK         
2 Paraguay      
1 Italy         
1 Belgium      
1 Colombia      
1 Panama   
1 Greece   
1 Sweden   
1 Chile   

PERU JNES - 69
67 Lima
1 Piura
1 La Libertad

Funnily enough, Keiko’s team was only able to officially challenge 151 actas by the deadline on Wednesday, so even assuming those actas are all 100% for Castillo, 100% turnout, and all annulled (none of which will happen), it won’t even make a difference if that projection holds up.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I wonder if the prospect of President Boluarte will give the right wing in the legislature pause when considering impeachment, since I imagine the only people who’d actually prefer her to him are the PL members of Congress. Or I guess they’ll just impeach both of them.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Current margin is 44,816. Looks like Tender is holding up counting in Austria.

Give or take, Keiko will close the gap by another ~1,000 votes from what is left.

Code:

9 - ALL (Keiko 75-25)

         6 - PERU (ALL LIMA; Keiko 79-21)

         3 - EXPAT (ALL AUSTRIA; Keiko 53-47) 					

I’m seeing 13 left on the ONPE site. Those 9 plus 2 more in the UK, 1 in Greece, and 1 in Sweden.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Heh, your new username

I’m reveling in how much of a loser she is and always will be.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Someone in La Republica or El Comercio or whatever (I think the latter?) said the JNE doesn’t expect to be finished with everything (i.e. all the challenges) until July. Ugh. Hopefully once Castillo turns out to not be much of a threat fujimorismo will disappear for good.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

100% actas contabilizadas. Castillo 50.125% Keiko 49.875%. Final margin is 44,058 votes.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Though isn't she going to try to string this out for a few months yet?

A few months wouldn’t be possible. A few weeks is more likely, since the regional JEEs and the JNE appear to be taking their sweet time with the challenged votes.

Is there a date when Castillo gets inaugurated?

July 28, the 200th anniversary of independence from Spain.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Though isn't she going to try to string this out for a few months yet?

A few months wouldn’t be possible. A few weeks is more likely, since the regional JEEs and the JNE appear to be taking their sweet time with the challenged votes.

Is there a date when Castillo gets inaugurated?

July 28, the 200th anniversary of independence from Spain.

Thanks to Fujimori Sr for screwing things up so much that things lined up that well for the inauguration date!

Lmao yes, imagine being inaugurated in year 199.