AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

With another Thiel-backed populist who was in third prior to a Trump endorsement winning his race, I think it's a given Trump will endorse Masters now.

I think Trump probably waits to see how Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina play out before endorsing here, but yeah today was a big win for his endorsement game.

Walker and Budd are locks. Perdue is almost certainly not even making the runoff. Pennsylvania is a tossup.

Yeah, the only race that he should focus on now is Pennsylvania. Do a rally or two for & with Oz leading up to the Primary. McCrory committed political suicide with his ad against Budd and Walker is a juggernaut in the primary. If Oz wins, then he endorses Masters in the weeks leading up to August 2nd, likely Mid-Late July.

According to an article I read (and usually Trumpworld sources are pretty reliable), Trump was waiting to see how Ohio went down before committing to going all-in on campaigning for his Senate picks. Now that he won, Trump feels more confident in placing his reputation on the line to campaign more for them.

I still do think he waits to see if Oz wins before moving in on Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arizona. Oz is his biggest test

I hope he endorses in Oklahoma soon, but I hope he doesn't just endorse frontrunner Mullin just because he voted to overturn, he's a RINO on most issues and someone like Gray, Dahm or even Shannon would be better (basically any other candidate apart from Holland).

Hoping for Greitens or Hartzler in MO, Lahmayer in OK-Regular, Dahm in OK-SPEC, and Masters in AZ.

I would prefer Greitens to Hartzler but either are good. I also think that Gray may be better than Dahm because of his great endorsements from people like Gosar. I agree with you on the rest, but I don't think Lahmeyer has a chance to win sadly, Boozman is more likely to lose his primary than Lankford.

What do you think about Greitens’s…ethics issues?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

And people think democrats are going to hold the senate? Give me a break!

Against the guy who wants to privatize Social Security? It’s more likely than you’d think.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

It’s malpractice that we’re not seeing more R’s hammer the covid issue. I know it’s settled, but they resoundingly won the debate. Democrats, on the other hand, will smartly talk an issue into oblivion if they feel they have the upper hand. We need less vengeful toxicity towards people like Fauci and more proposals like “the government mandate protection act”, particularly in places like Arizona and Nevada.

We’ll see if they’re smart enough to use the student loans situation to an advantage. They should be portraying Biden as a good ol’ boy giving out checks to upper middle class white yuppie’s while the economy is bad. Instead we’ll probably see more lines like “vote for me to reduce inflation!” as if voters will think republicans are magical inflation specialists

You really don't understand *who* exactly has college loans, do you? This is exactly the type of tone-deafness that will hurt Republicans even more with constituencies that are trending against them (not just college+ whites, but minorities, young people, etc.)

I’m not going to argue about the realities of the issue itself on this thread, but I did not say that’s the reality. I said that’s what they should make the perception. Regardless, there’s not some huge pool of swing voters who are college educated with loans currently. That’s an extremely small subset of the voting population and the vast majority are already hostile to republicans. Of the ones that aren’t, many are already partisan republicans.

Meanwhile, I can think of several angles republicans can use it;

1. Driving a wedge with middle-aged college educated voters that already paid loans off. I personally know of two democrats in this boat that were angered by the idea. It’s not just some fringe group

2. Driving a wedge with voters of all races that never attended college. This is also one of the most “undecided” subgroups according to multiple polls

3. Having a concrete example to campaign on Biden ignoring inflation. Regardless of if it’s actually contributing to inflation, voters associate inflation with handing out free money.

4. Changing the subject of debate, and hoping the media keys in on the annoying Twitter libs that are complaining about wanting more (another thing I’ve heard even democrats be exasperated by)

Sorry bub, you're not gonna win this one. A large majority of those with student loans make <$80K a year. That IS the middle class. The only people actually upset about this are rich people.

Again, the middle class is very large, including tons of non-college graduates, and jealousy is a heck of a drug. I’m not saying it will hand the election to Masters, but it’s something he could use if phrased properly.  

The one pill we’ve gotten about this says that the debt forgiveness is pretty popular nationwide - including among non-college graduates.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Masters thinks he can just change his position like shaking an Etch-a-Sketch.