Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Not quite election-related, but the Chamber of Deputies just voted to legalize abortion with one yes vote from the government (Francisco Undurraga, Evopoli, Sichel campaign spokesman) and a few nos (some DC members) and abstentions (some DC and PPD members) from the opposition.

They technically approved the idea to discuss it. Some of the Yes from the DC will turn into Noes when they actually vote for it, like Walker. Many of the DCs who approved it did it for Yasna Provoste since she is in favour and they don't want to undermine her.

Ah, thank you for clearing that up.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The Clinic published an interview with Sichel’s stepfather, Saúl Iglesias, responding to Sichel’s longtime accusations of abuse and maltreatment that led him to rediscover his biological father and take his last name several years ago, a story that has been essentially the whole basis of his campaign along with his “I’m a Moderate Centrist(TM)” No Labels crap. Lots of controversy over Sichel’s life story again, and over the fact that The Clinic even gave the interview in the first place, but I read it and it seems to reflect more poorly on Iglesias than anyone else, given that he basically admits to physical abuse in his own words. As with the pension funds, I think people on the left want this to be worse for Sichel than it is, but it’s undeniable that this is not a good week for him at all.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yeah, honestly I think that interview is only going to get sympathy for Sichel, with the added bonus that it buried his previous polemic.

I think it could contribute to a “Sichel in disarray” narrative, rather than burying the pension story, but I do agree that once people move beyond the initial reaction this will help reinforce his life story.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Obviously we’ll need more polls to confirm this, but it’s not the most unexpected outcome with the weeks Sichel and Kast have been having. Maybe this will spook the center-right into consolidating around Sichel, maybe it’s the beginning of the end for his campaign.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It’s happening.

Makes sense that with Chilean society having so much strong energy for change that the runoff will be a close call between Boric vs Kast.

It doesn’t make sense for anyone else other than those two to get elected after everything that has happened in the last two years. Kast slow but constant growth reminds me of Bolsonaro in few months prior to our election in 2018.

Good point…but this time it’s Piñera who’s the punching bag, not the PT, and Boric who represents the alternative to the traditional opposition.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yeah, I don't see any scenario where Boric gets less than 60% of the vote against Kast. Kast is perceived as even more extremist than he actually is and has by far the highest % in "I would never for x candidate".

My baseline for a second-round would be Boric 65%-Kast 35%.  

What’s your baseline for Boric-Sichel, if you have one?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Fernando Atria (high-profile FA member of the constitutional convention)’s daughter has resigned as an advisor to another FA convention member after a brief scandal (her being an advisor in itself, that is).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Maya Fernández has officially endorsed Boric. Latest sign (as if the polls weren’t enough) that many Socialists are going for him over Provoste.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

This next week might be do or die for Sichel.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ministerio Público has officially opened a criminal investigation over Piñera’s involvement in the Pandora Papers/Dominga case, in particular his decision to not make the area around where the mining project would be into an environmentally protected zone (which was one of the terms of the contract and was not part of the an earlier investigation into the Dominga project in 2017).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I don’t recall Sichel ever receiving any sort of major scrutiny during the primaries, am I wrong?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Was vaguely paying attention but then they kept saying “zanja” and I had to look it up. Does Kast really want to build a moat around Chile?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Was vaguely paying attention but then they kept saying “zanja” and I had to look it up. Does KAST really want to build a moat around Chile?

Of course he does, why wouldn't he.

I suppose I shouldn’t have expected originality from the founder of the Republican Party.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

“I sent you a book explaining how my father* was not a Nazi.”

*fought in the German army from 1944-5

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The items that seemed to have most resonance on the internet in the immediate aftermath: the Kast-Boric spat about Kast’s father and the Panama Papers, Kast’s big moat, and the total absence of Sichel (maybe with an honorable mention of how dirty Provoste did him).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Boric basically called Kast a nazi (his father was literally a nazi) and a tax evader (He has offshore accounts in Panamá) and Kast absolutely lost his mind. This is the best debate ever.

Omg do you have links?

The runoff between these two will probably be a bigger explosive event than Keiko Fujimori vs Pedro Castillo.

https://youtu.be/iCLptZmDRvo The moment in question.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

LMAO that Patricio Navia tweet reads like a parody.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Activa/Pulso Ciudadano poll

Boric: 21
Kast: 16
Provoste: 13
Sichel: 8
Parisi: 5
MEO: 3
Artés: 2
Blank: 8
Doesn’t know: 16
Won’t vote: 10

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If I were Kast I would be all aboard the impeachment. Sichel of course will never be.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Still expecting a Jadue vs. Lavin runoff.

That’s silly. Why would that happen? It’ll obviously be Jiles.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Aaaaaand the government is blaming Boric and Provoste for violence and looting that occurred on the second anniversary of the beginning of the estallido social a few days ago, because they dared refer to people held for years on accusations of destroying the Santiago Metro before being acquitted as “political prisoners”.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

UDI used images of the coup and the bombing of La Moneda for their terror campaign in their parliamentary franja. Classy

One of the worst major parties in the democratic world.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Also notable how Kast’s franja was very anti-cancel culture/right-wing grievance politics. Seemed almost devoid of content beyond “say what you really think [about Pinochet or the gays or whatever]”. I would have expected at least something about the estallido or immigration or his general campaign themes, but I guess they’re all subordinate to the “Atrévete” message - banking hard on “shy Kast voters” I suppose.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Is there parliamentary polling?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I mean, there’s also the fact that Kast doesn’t believe in vaccine mandates but does believe in “detaining radical agitators” (aka any protesters). It’s not a secret belief of his or something dug up from the past, it’s his current platform.