Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Port Charlotte Satellite Caucus First Alignment results

Klobuchar 48
Buttigieg 38
Biden 33
Warren 12
Steyer 2
Sanders 1
Yang 1

Was this caucus literally held in a nursing home or something?

It sure looked like it.

I think it was a Unitarian Universalist church.

Seems like Bernie country, then.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Among late deciders:

Biden 23
Buttigeig 20
Warren 16
Bernie 14

Per CBS

Moderates spooked by Bernie. Not as much for Klobuchar as I would have expected, if this is accurate.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/Harbpeace/status/1224510467361603586

Amazing how much more diverse a coalition Sanders has put together since '16.

Arabs were a major part of Bernie’s coalition in 2016 too.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ali Harb @Harbpeace

Breaking:
The final count from the Muslim Community Organization, one of the five mosques serving as a caucus site for the first time in the history of the #IowaCaucuses
- Sanders 115
- Yang 2 (no viability)
- Buttigieg 2 (no viability)
- Warren 1
- Every one else 0
1,053
8:50 PM - Feb 3, 2020

religion specific caucuses?

No more religion specific than it is to caucus in a Presbyterian church.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

West Des Moines precinct on C-SPAN 1st round

92 Bernie
62 Warren
58 Pete
44 Amy
42 Biden
23 Yang

final

Bernie 99
Warren 76
Pete 73
Klobuchar 57

Bernie is not benefiting from these realignments!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

You can’t lose votes in the realignment unless you’re inviable, right?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_7/status/1224561796121534465?s=20

Disastrous.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So at this rate, Bernie will be losing Iowa again.

The thing with Bernie is that 25% is fine, but it's clear in the 2nd round what is his problem is. He doesn't have crossover appeal beyond his die-hards. That's the reason Buttigieg got such a good 2nd realignment #.

Winning Iowa really doesn't matter much this year IMO. There is a 24-hour news cycle. The masses have moved on, and when people look back they won't care that Buttigieg beat Sanders by less than 1% if that happens, or whatever the margin is. They'll see the delegates were all mostly the same, too. The experienced political people often talk about how nobody wins Iowa but it slims the field down. Well, this year it's true more than ever that nobody is winning Iowa, but it's less true than ever that it's going to slim the field down.

If so then weather Biden gets above 15% is critical.  If he gets above 15% then the delegate allocation will look more like a 4 way tie between  Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren and Biden.  Biden then can claim that it was a 4 way tied in IA.

Delegate-wise, sure. But we know it wasn’t.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If team Buttigieg is so concerned about potential manipulation of the SDE count we could always just look at the popular vote and use that to decide who wins.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So here is where we are with 7 of the 13 caucus sites accounted for:

CD1 Satellite: Cedar Rapids Public Library, Whipple Auditorium: 24
CD1 Satellite: Hoover Elementary School: 121
CD1 Satellite: RWDSU Local 110: 20
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 838: 20
CD1 Satellite: Mayflower Retirement Community Carmen Center: 72
CD1 Satellite: Kirkwood Community College Recreation Center : at least 61
CD1 Satellite: Drake Library: 98

Might be mid sized
CD1 Satellite: University of Dubuque Blades Chapel; Charles and Romonda Myers Center

Union Halls
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 893
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 94

Retirement Homes
CD1 Satellite: Edgewood Convalescent
CD1 Satellite: Faith Luthern Home
CD1 Satellite: The Meth-Wick Community

There were at least 416 caucus attendees, so there need to be 185 more to reach 601 to double the number of delegates.

Seems eminently feasible to reach those numbers, but I’m wondering if the nursing homes won’t put a dent in Bernie’s satellite caucus advantage.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I think it's better for Biden if Pete does end up losing Iowa especially because his dismal results haven't been on display. This has gone from a disaster to something that can be managed for the Biden campaign.

One tenth of a percentage point in an arbitrary metric between Pete and Bernie is not gonna make this any better than Joe Biden, the worst frontrunner of all time.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

When are we scheduled to get the full 100% of results?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Interesting how they pull this right as it looks like Bernie could take the lead in SDEs.

I have yet to see a good reason not to just declare Bernie the winner based on the popular vote. I hope he savages Pete over it at tomorrow's debate.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Convenient how Pete leads up until the very end when Sanders gets a bunch of lopsided wins out of the blue. The DNC is now scared that Bernie will lose and is trying to rig the results to get Bernie above. If Pete doesn’t win I will write in Jeb Bush.
Now do you understand how ridiculous y’all sound?

Do you understand how ridiculous the DNC, IDP, Tom Perez, and Pete Buttigieg sound?

I don’t see them peddling conspiracies and stirring manufactured outrage. Pete easily could use this as “proof” of the DNC trying to screw him over and honestly he should.

Pete declared victory at 0% reporting. He capitalized on a media narrative of his victory for three days. His lead then narrowed significantly and NOW a recanvass is called without the full results? We have a right to be pissed.

Sanders literally has declared victory despite being behind. He has capitalized on a media that he can manipulate as he has done in the past. He literally was far behind in SDEs and just now suddenly got a bunch of favorable votes and still hasn’t taken the lead. Now Perez has shut it down to push Bernie ahead. We have a right to be pissed.

Sanders has more votes than any other candidate. That’s called victory.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ngl all you Sanders supporters would be crowing about his Iowa victory if he had pulled ahead.

:/

We are crowing about his victory, because SDEs are a meaningless and absurd metric and - and I cannot stress this enough - he got more votes than anyone else.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

My preferred candidate is still Warren

JFC

As I've said before, I don't know or care what the current beef between her and Sanders is. I've seen nothing to change my belief that it's BS ginned up to weaken both of them.

I'm surprised that you support Elizabeth "Capitalist to my bones" Warren regardless of that incident.

When and in what context did she say that? Genuine question--I've been relatively low-information through most of this primary season so far due to personal drama.

https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/568573/

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So the media is calling this a virtual tie between Sanders and buttigieg.

I call b*******. Sanders won the popular vote, particularly the initial ballot, handedly.

I'm not totally on the Bernie bus yet, because, yet again, I think mine is the candidate who will most be able to withstand the Republican attack machine due to familiarity, but since he has no chance in New Hampshire I'm very very tentatively rooting for Bernie as something of a do-over

Whether or not we agree with the rule.  SDE's determine the winner of the Iowa Caucus just like it did in the past.  Reporting the First & Final Alignment #'s gives us more information, and is more transparent to have (no matter how blundered it has been), but it doesn't change what a winner is based off of.

What “rule”? Being the “winner” is an arbitrary distinction; it’s not like how the electoral college actually makes you president, it’s just an odd way of apportioning delegates. Bernie got more votes in both alignments.