2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Yank2133]

Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

Literally you, Limo, and Bagel have all said whenever Trump gets a bump or Dems go down that it was going to permanently continue in that direction and each and every time it wasn’t proven true.

Yeah, They are concern-trolling (and not even doing a good job at it). The truth is the generic ballot has been remarkably stable over the last several months. It has been around 7-8 point Democratic lead since the start of the year.

[Yank2133]

Why haven't they switched to LV screens?

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Pretty much. Democrats are holding steady at 48.

[Yank2133]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

The Bottom Line is this:

The Kavernaugh Confirmation (should he be confirmed) has the Potential to change/swing the narrative of this Election similar to when Comey made the Announcement about re-opening Hillarys eMails in 2016...at least that's what Republicans think it would do otherwise they wouldn't be pushing so hard to get him confirmed.

How is Kavanaugh even comparable to Clinton?

Comey letter caused Clinton's support to collapse. Kavanaugh confirmation/withdrawal is going to have no effect on Democratic support next month.

[Yank2133]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

The Bottom Line is this:

The Kavernaugh Confirmation (should he be confirmed) has the Potential to change/swing the narrative of this Election similar to when Comey made the Announcement about re-opening Hillarys eMails in 2016...at least that's what Republicans think it would do otherwise they wouldn't be pushing so hard to get him confirmed.

How is Kavanaugh even comparable to Clinton?

Comey letter caused Clinton's support to collapse. Kavanaugh confirmation/withdrawal is going to have no effect on Democratic support next month.

But it will have an effect on the GOP's Support. Confirm Kavernaugh and Republicans will lose between 20-30 Seats, don't confirm and you look at a 60+ Seat gain, maybe even more for the Dems.

Yeah, I just don't buy that at all.

[Yank2133]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

IOW it could jam Heitkamp but is a wash for the other two

Conservative Contributor Hugh Hewitt thinks GOP will collapse if they don't confirm Kavernaugh see here

https://twitter.com/hughhewitt/status/1047611960840396800

....AND I'm actually thinking among the same lines as he is.

Ehhh. I wouldn't trust anything Hugh Hewitt says.

[Yank2133]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

IOW it could jam Heitkamp but is a wash for the other two

Conservative Contributor Hugh Hewitt thinks GOP will collapse if they don't confirm Kavernaugh see here

https://twitter.com/hughhewitt/status/1047611960840396800

....AND I'm actually thinking among the same lines as he is.

Ehhh. I wouldn't trust anything Hugh Hewitt says.

Why? In this case it seems entirely reasonable what he says. Trump Voters are now the backbone of the new Republican Coalition and it shouldn't be too complicated to figure this out for you what happens if a vast Majority of them staying home. The GOP would face an "Alamo" that is even bigger than 1994 was for the Democrats.

Well, Trump voters aren't the "new GOP coalition". In fact, many of them voted for Romney in 2012 and have historically always voted Republican.

Anyway, I just don't buy GOP voters staying home due to Kavanaugh. If he is withdrawn, I think you will see a dip in a couple of polls, but then they will revert back to where they have been for the majority of the year.

[Yank2133]

1. North Dakota: North Dakota is the retail politics capital of this Senate cycle, it's easy to campaign in, and polls have always sucked in North Dakota. With a month to go I'm worried, but come on.

2. Kavanaugh will be confirmed, probably with 1 or 2 Democrats, and on November 6th nobody, especially not the generally demoralized Republican base will care.

I'm an optimist, so maybe on November 7th I'll want to shoot myself for writing this, but this sure seems like another round of Atlas/Beltway Mania about how the Democrats are doomed and how THIS is why the Democrats will lose a billion gajillion seats in November.

The Democrats can do NOTHING if they don't take the Senate and Republicans with Kavernaugh being confirmed will do everything in their Power to prevent that from happening.

I dont think you have a grasp on how are government works. While it would be nice to be able to stop Trump's nominees, the house is not some powerless body.

Seriously.

The house can still send out subpoenas and run oversight.

[Yank2133]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1048575528469495808

:thinking_emoji:

This is the perfect example why I think political observers and the pundit class are underestimating Democrats at the moment. It isn't about anger from Kavanaugh, but for the simple fact R's are severely overextended.

[Yank2133]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1048575528469495808

:thinking_emoji:

This is the perfect example why I think political observers and the pundit class are underestimated Democrats at the moment. It isn't about anger from Kavanaugh, but for the simple fact R's are severely overextended.

Of the 22 tossup races that have been polled by NYT/Siena, 8 show the dem leading and 14 show the repub leading.

It's safe to say the pundits probably aren't underestimating dems in the house, lol. Y'all think 2018 will be a massive tsunami for some reason.

We shall see.

But historically, the party that won the generic ballot over-performed on election day by 2-3 points. Democrats currently lead by about 8 points. A double digit lead puts them in range to win the house comfortably, while also putting the senate in play.

The generic ballot leader also tends to over perform in district polling by nearly 3 points. Democrats were down 1.5 points in district polling in 2006 and over performed by 3 points. Republicans over-performed by over 5 points in district polling in 2014.

Anyway, I am not saying Democrats are guaranteed to win by double digits or whatever. My point is I don't think people should dismiss the chance of a bigger then expected win for Democrats in November.

[Yank2133]

A new Harris poll is D +8, the same as their last one.

Something has got to give with that Harris poll.

D+8, but Trump has a 49/51 approval rating?

[Yank2133]

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I don't think any President with Trump's approval ratings has gained seats in the senate.

[Yank2133]

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I don't think any President with Trump's approval ratings has gained seats in the senate.

The map is simply unfavorable to the Dems--aside from Nevada, the only Republicans up for reelection are in strong R states (and half the Dems up are as well). Any other Senate map would've led to losses for the GOP.

True.

However, historically incumbents from the other party in states the president won in the previous election tend to do well in the mid-terms. There is a chance Democrats win 4/5 red states (MO, MT, IN, WV, while losing ND). That would give them 47, with chances to win 3 or 4 of the remaining "toss ups" (FL, NV, AZ, TN), which would give them either a tie or the majority.

Granted, I don't think it is likely. But it is just weird how everyone has just thrown out history with this election.

[Yank2133]

Did we really need a topic for this, much less in the General Discussion thread?

He's trolling. This was all because some polls aged out of Sean Trende's average.

Also Dems have to win it by 6, not 7.

[Yank2133]

Did we really need a topic for this, much less in the General Discussion thread?

He's trolling. This was all because some polls aged out of Sean Trende's average.

Also Dems have to win it by 6, not 7.

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No one does that.

[Yank2133]

Not to mention that if you take out Memerson and the highly erratic Reuters/Ipsos, the average becomes D+5.5.

Take out NPR/PBS/Marist, Harvard-Harris, and Quinnipiac -- all possibly biased for the D's...and you get D+4!

I wonder if we'll get an R+something poll soon after that Kavanaugh debacle. Who knows...maybe the GCB will be something like R+1 at the end if things really break in favor for the GOP. I looked at quite a few polls from the 2016 Senate elections recently and noticed a pattern - many were accurate at predicting the percentage the Democratic candidate would get, and it didn't change much since early October. On top of that, the undecideds broke heavily for the GOP.

If you see the same pattern hold...

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

..notice how even the D favorables only have it at around 50%...that means even if they're accurate, undecideds could break massively for the GOP to the point where it's pretty much a tie --> no blue wave, no taking back the House!

And I wouldn't be surprised...people who are going to vote Democratic on November 6 have likely ALREADY decided by now. If you're still undecided after all the "we need a blue wave to put a check on Trump" propaganda, chances are you lean GOP.

Sorry guys.

This is quite possibly the worst analysis Ive ever read on this forum.

Were you here for the 2012 election?

[Yank2133]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

[Yank2133]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

He didn't really change the game looking at the senate polls. But I don't have time for your concern trolling.

[Yank2133]

It is very possible that the Democrats could wind the House vote by a large number but not win the House. If they get very high number in safe/likely seat they hold while gaining in some of the safe/likely seat that they Republicans have. But in the toss-up ones they don't get the support to win. (Not saying this is what will happen)

.  

Someones been on twitter.

Nate Cohn laying out his doomsday scenario lol.

Anyway, he raises a good point. However, I think he is underselling the fact that the party out of power tends to over perform the district only polls.

Yeah, but Kavanaugh changed the game for the GOP like I said it would. What happened to all my naysayers saying that nobody pays attention to the Supreme Court?

He didn't really change the game looking at the senate polls. But I don't have time for your concern trolling.

Is it trolling to say that Cruz, Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley are pulling away?

There is no proof that Hawley is pulling away.

[Yank2133]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

Not me.

I have said from the start that it will do nothing either way. R's got their seat and D's are motivated by Trump already.

[Yank2133]

Just watching "CNN's Inside Politics" with John King and they are all mostly right. Republicans made a calculated risk by pushing Kavanaugh through. They knew they would lose the House (because of College Educated White Women) but wanted to keep the Senate. Had Kavanaugh Confirmation failed there would have been an even greater than 50% Chance that they would have lost both Chambers.

It is funny how everything Republicans do is seen as sort of magic stroke of political genius. Imagine if Democrats barely pushed through an unpopular nominee, who has been credibly accused of sexually assault. The media wouldn't be spinning it this way.

Everything in politics is always looked through the lens of Republicans. Democrats should never forget that.

[Yank2133]

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He is moving the goal-post.

2016 has even been arguing that Democrats winning the house means nothing. Which shows he doesn't understand how our government works. Anyway, Democrats winning the popular vote by 6+, while also winning 25+ seats and also making significant gains in the gubernatorial races and state legislatures is a wave election.

[Yank2133]

One poll, but man are people dopes for GOP narrative spin.

[Yank2133]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

Dont worry....theyll be another BS narrative next week now that tax cut, North Korea, Kavanaugh bump has failed to materialize

That's because something new happens every week. Did you predict the Comey Letter? Kavanaugh Backlash? The Macaca controversy?  Besides, we're literally in the month of the "October Surprise". Don't get too smug.

We have been getting a lot of "surprises" all year and yet the generic ballot has been fairly stable. The thing about Clinton in 2016 that everyone ignores is how soft her support was in many polls, which caused a lot of volatility.

We haven't seen that with the generic ballot (it has been 7-9 for the majority of 2018). Now it doesn't mean Democrats can be complacent, but this isn't 2016.

[Yank2133]

Ipsos has D+12 on the GCB... something’s going on...

Not really

Ipsos was D+12 last week and CNN was D+12 back in September. The big takeaway from this poll is that Kavanaugh hasn't made an impact either way in house races.

[Yank2133]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/poll-kavanaugh-midterms-885940

Politico/MC: GCB D+10 (48-38)

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Where’s the Kavanaugh bump? I was told by Beltway pundits that we were going to get a red wave because of the least popular Supreme Court nominee in history.

And just like that... pundits are wrong again. My problem I think with these pundits though is that they are so assured they are right, and then get defensive when presented with evidence that they were wrong.

The problem with pundits is they buy what into any narrative GOP operatives tell them.