Will Hillary's ground-game totally outclass Trump's on election day? (user search)
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  Will Hillary's ground-game totally outclass Trump's on election day? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: How much of an effect will it have on election night?
#1
Very strong: +3-4%
 
#2
Strong: +2-3%
 
#3
Good: +1-2%
 
#4
Negligible: + less than 1%
 
#5
No effect
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 82

Author Topic: Will Hillary's ground-game totally outclass Trump's on election day?  (Read 1283 times)
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


« on: October 31, 2016, 11:56:13 AM »

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

What info are you looking at? Democrats are over-performing in CO and FL compared to 2008 and 2012.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2016, 12:30:43 PM »


You guys haven't learned anything the past two election cycles did you?
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2016, 01:56:22 PM »

Exactly the opposite: we are just starting to see Clinton collapsing nationwide (For polls out by 10/31, we have GA R+7, strengthening R leads in MO and KY, poor Democratic turnout in CO and FL).

I personally think "college-educated whites" and "increasing Hispanic turnout" will prove to be the two biggest loads of self-reinforcing nonsense that have been peddled throughout this election.

What info are you looking at? Democrats are over-performing in CO and FL compared to 2008 and 2012.

With CO, a 3.6% lead in the early vote totals (in a state that Clinton polled consistently quite well in) is indeed weak, but I am willing to change my mind about it.

About FL I don't share the optimism since a Clinton win in the state makes assumptions about the demographics of the electorate (less white, more Hispanic, and thus more favorable to the Democrats) that just aren't being borne out yet in the actual vote count. Yes, Clinton doesn't need FL, but it is the test laboratory for the validity of that argument. Even the FL early vote blog linked to in the the absentee vote thread concludes that the GOP is quite well placed in the state.

You are dead wrong about CO.

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And you are wrong about FL. The GOP margin in early vote is far lower in 2016 then it was in 2012 and Democrats usually dominate on election day with in person voters. In fact 27% of their EV are from those who are least likely to vote, which is a very good news.
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