Could Hillary get 40% in OK?

[Reginald]

Outside of a Clinton landslide, not a chance. It'd require a swing comparable to the one Romney got in WV in 2012. And Oklahoma… isn't exactly becoming Democratic like WV is becoming Republican. Not at all.

The more interesting question is whether she can win a county, as that's not even close to a guarantee. So where are the areas most liable to swing Clinton substantially? This shows where Clinton beat Obama by at least 30 points in the 2008 primary. The darker classes are >35 and >40 percentage points.



I'd imagine this is where we're most likely to see a decent swing, all else being equal. This is the ancestrally D half(ish) of OK, for sure. The southeast of the state swung particularly heavily against Obama in 08, so perhaps Clinton could pick up some ground there. That wouldn't be enough for her to break forty though; it'd have to be accompanied by a swing in OKC and/or Tulsa.

[Reginald]

Who in Oklahoma who is going to vote Republican didn't in 2012.

Yeah. I mean, you'd basically have to be one of those people who decide whom to vote for literally at the voting booth for that idea to hold any water whatsoever.