UK General Discussion: Rishecession

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Nicola Sturgeon says there will be an Independence vote for Scotland in October 2023, even if the Supreme Court rules against it.

The leader of the Scottish government said Sunday that she will push on with her campaign to take Scotland out of the United Kingdom, even if she loses a Supreme Court case seeking authorization to call a new independence referendum.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold a referendum in October 2023, but the Conservative U.K. government in London has said no. Britain’s top court is due to hear arguments starting Tuesday on whether Scotland’s semi-autonomous administration can organize an independence vote without the London government’s consent.

Sturgeon, who leads the Scottish National Party, said that if her Edinburgh-based government loses the court case, she will make the next U.K. national election a de facto plebiscite on ending Scotland’s three-century-old union with England.

She did not give details of how that would work. A vote held without the approval of the U.K. government would not be legally binding.

Sturgeon said that if the courts blocked a referendum, “we put our case to people in an election or we give up on Scottish democracy.”

It's starting to look like Scotland is going to become the new Catalonia.

Both referendums in Quebec were held unilaterally, without any authorization from Ottawa.

Though, in both cases, the PQ government gave itself wiggle room by making the ballot question intentionally ambiguous. Maybe Sturgeon could give herself wiggle room by floating trial balloons about a confederation, but the clear-cut ballot question in 2014 will make that harder.

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Also

https://mobile.twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1600461810473357312

Interesting, very out of kilter with most recent opinion polling if accurate.

From someone from Quebec, totally expected after that Court decision. Being told by a court "no, you can't do that, only the central government can" is one of the greatest fuels for independentism.

Perhaps, but as we saw in Quebec, voters will eventually get tired of the debate about independence, and move on to bread-and-butter issues.

Will King Charles open Parliament at the House of Commons instead?

The last time a king named Charles entered the House of Commons, things went a bit awry afterward.

The last King Charles was known for fooling around with his mistresses, rather than crashing into the House of Commons.

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Scotland, though, has traditionally had more influence on the UK than mere numbers would suggest. Of course, that is less true under modern Tory governments who really are mainly English based (and mostly southern England at that, the current PM holding a Yorkshire seat notwithstanding)

Whatever happens though, nationalism there isn't going to die or even majorly decline any time soon - but an erosion of the recent SNP electoral hegemony is certainly more plausible, especially if a Labour government does take power in Westminster and is well received.

Quebec nationalism didn't so much die, but quietly evolved into an acceptance of Quebec as a distinct nation within Canada. The decades of uncertainty around Quebec's future also contributed to the stagnation of its economy relative to the rest of Canada, most famously marked by the exodus of the headquarters of the major banks to Toronto.

Of course, Britain's economy is stagnating relative to the rest of Europe post you-know-what, but a long and drawn-out period of uncertainty about Scotland's future can't be helpful to its economy, either.