Canada 2011 Official Thread

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I don't see that. Harper has exerted so much control over the party that there are no credible challengers to his leadership, and has turned the party into a complete one man show. And none of the CPC frontbenchers spell charisma in any way, shape, or form. To date he has never named a Deputy PM, which is not a healthy sign that he tolerates any dissent within the caucus.

If the election results in a Liberal minority (unlikely now, but who knows), Harper gets turfed. If the election results in a smaller CPC minority, he will probably be forced to step aside in the caucus meetings. But at this stage there is no one to fill the vacuum if he steps aside, and my hunch is that a big part of the party rank and file will tune out of the leadership race and party donations will drop (if they haven't already been banned by court ruling by then).

Such are the risks of turning a party into a one-man personality cult.

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The poll numbers are not budging for Iggy nationally, and there is no animating issue to this campaign, all tax credits, mudslinging and spreading some corporate wealth around (to paraphrase POTUS) to students. He will lose 5-10 seats.

I don't know about you, but it appears Harper's excellent tendency to shoot himself in the foot whenever things are going well has been proven again. As soon as the election was called he immediately accused the opposition of plotting to form a coalition (instead of doing the safe and sensible thing, which is to focus on the economy). This issue might be coming back to bite him with accusations of his own coalition attempts. Expect the Liberals and NDP to seize this case and use it build their theme of a government of "contempt".

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Prime Minister Jack Layton, Deputy PM Bob Rae, Liberal Backbencher Michael Ignatieff, Opposition Leader Jim Prentice, Senator Stephen Harper?

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Voted today in an advanced poll, and was surprised to see an actual lineup.

Then I took a walk around town, in this riding where the CPC candidate defeated the Liberal by just 17 votes in the 2008 election.

I can say there are definitely more Liberal signs, followed by NDP signs. The CPC was barely more visible than the Green Party. If signs are any indication, the Conservative Party is in for a nasty surprise.

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This is amusing: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/25/cv-election-harper-dossier.html

Someone is gonna get fired?

But wouldn't firing whoever leaked this file attract attention the CPC doesn't need or want?

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Wouldn't it be stupid for them to get rid of FPTP at a time where it would work in their favour if they are to replace the Liberals as the major leftwing party and could ultimately result in a NDP Majority government within a very reasonable amount of time? Yes, I'm being overtly optimistic here.

It would, tactically. The NDP is not really disadvantaged by FPTP except insofar as FPTP hurts smaller parties. Unlike the Lib Dems, the NDP is solidly on the left and thus not nearly as evenly distributed across the country. The Lib Dems could win more votes than Labour and still end up far back in seats, but the NDP would easily pass the Liberals in seats if they won more votes.

I see. So, if these polls play out and the NDP finish second, it's likely that Jack Layton will become Leader of the Opposition, right?

Presumably.

But if the Conservatives are only in the minority, and especially if NDP+Liberal>155 (in which case the Conservatives will likely have lost seats), then in practice it will become extremely difficult for Harper to continue as Prime Minister OR Party Leader. Needless to say the Liberals will be embroiled in their second leadership race in two years.

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I just came back from a candidates debate in Kitchener Waterloo.

The Liberal, NDP, and Green candidates spent the entire time bashing the Conservative incumbent who spent the entire time regurgitating silly talking points about the unnecessary election, the socialist/separatist coalition, the IPod tax, and Strong Leader.

The Liberal definitely seemed the most statesmanlike, touting his record from when he was MP. The NDP candidate did his best but didn't quite thoughtfully answer questions. The Green candidate said things you expect the Green Party to say.

The audience was very hostile to the Conservative and loudly booed him whenever he repeated the CPC talking points.

Anyone else had those experiences?

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Official report: http://www.4shared.com/document/UBEUyjHn/AngusReid_20110427_Politics_CA.html

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If the election results follow the current polls, we'll see some losses for Conservatives, more losses for the Liberals, bad losses for the Bloc, and NDP pushed to second place. Elizabeth May might also win. In such a scenario the Conservatives will hold a reduced plurality while the Liberals and NDP combined hold a clear majority.

It's a safe bet that Ignatieff and Duceppe will step down as party leaders. Harper will continue as Prime Minister and will introduce a budget which grants no concessions to the opposition parties, and continue to scaremonger about coalitions.

Here's a question: if that budget is voted down and the Governor General goes to Layton (as leader of the second party) to form a government, how will Harper react? Will he resort to childish antics? If (as seems possible) party infighting erupts, will Harper try to fight a two front war to cling to government AND party leader?

He's not someone who can reason with those who challenge him, so I'll have popcorn ready.

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I think he made that very very clear in 2008. He'll prorogue parliament, indefinitely if need be.

I'm not very sure he can do that. In 2008 Harper had the excuse that he had just passed a throne speech and therefore had confidence in the first place. Now he will never have passed anything and could not claim to hold any confidence from the house. In 2008 Harper could plausibly claim the coalition was dependent on the Bloc and therefore was harmful to the country, Now that clearly is not the case. In 2008 Harper increased his minority and could plausibly claim he had a mandate. Now he has clearly lost seats and could not claim so.

Finally, questions about his leadership will arise within the party, which has given him four chances to lead them to a majority. Nasty infighting will undoubtedly erupt and Harper will have to fight two wars at once. And given how public opinion has changed since 2008, I doubt he can do that without decimating his party.

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All the more reason for electoral reform of some sort. Without it we will be reduced to a vanilla left-right two-party system, which simply does not account for the unique conditions of Canada.

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Looks like some people will be going to cram schools over the next month.

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Harper prepares to wiggle his way out of his past prediction that there will be no CPC minority government: http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCATRE73S5FS20110429

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Just a hunch, but Harper's scaremongering about the election being a choice between a majority or Bob Rae will not work in driving voters to the Conservative Party. If anything it would drive Liberal-turned-NDP supporters in Ontario back to the Liberals.

The NDP probably has little further to gain and there shouldn't be surprise if they "only" win 27% nationwide. There could be a dead cat Liberal bounce in Ontario, which could make a difference in some suburban seats. The Green Party will disappoint vote-wise, because many of their supporters will be voting strategically, but may win the seat in Saanich Gulf Islands. Finally, the CPC will have a slight fall in popular vote to 35-36% and a fall in seats to 135-140. The Bloc will be finished as a serious party.

Here's my prediction:

C 36%, NDP 29% L 23% G 5% Bloc 5% (23% in Quebec), all rounded to the nearest %

C 140 N 80 L 70 B 15 G MAYBE 1, approximated values.

Things I'd like to see:
Ignatieff initially feels frightened for his own seat.
The NDP tsunami in Quebec claims Gilles Duceppe, Lawrence Cannon, and Christian Paradis.
John Baird loses and has to be physically removed from his office.
Simcoe Grey is too close to call as loyalty to Helena Guergis is strong.
The huge CPC advantage in popular vote turns to be meaningless given the massive margins in its prairie super-strongholds.
Liberals and Bloc descend into public infighting literally the morning after the election.
Failure to win a majority creates rumblings of discontent which turns into a trouble for Harper.
"Red Tories" eventually become disgruntled with Harper's dictatorial leadership and start defecting to the Liberals in sizeable numbers, turning the Liberal Party into a reincarnation of the old PCs and leaving the Conservative Party as a reincarnation of the old Reform/Alliance.

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Next up on Sun News: Is Layton really born in Montreal? Where is his birth certificate? Stay tuned.

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It will be interesting to see how Ignatieff and Harper fully react tomorrow.

If they "unreservedly condemn this obvious piece of yellow journalism", then there will be less suspicion of dirty tricks. Canadians are already extremely cynical and this is the least they can expect.

If either do not then suspicion will fall on them.

My gut says this story is too blatant to gain traction among any undecided voters. If the rumours circulated for a week among Twitter before Layton responded then it may have worked.

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Harper seems to be positioning himself for a coalition with the party which he spent years accusing of lusting for power via undemocratic coalition. How appropriate.

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Harper seems to be positioning himself for a coalition with the party which he spent years accusing of lusting for power via undemocratic coalition. How appropriate.

The Liberals shoot themselves in the foot a lot, but that would be more like shooting themselves in the head.

Let's look at the options the Liberals have, once they're trounced into third place and they hold the balance of power in a hung parliament:

1) Liberals forced to humiliatingly prop up Conservative confidence motions while their leadership candidates make anti-Harper rhetoric

2) Harper decides to kill the Liberals once and for all by offering goodies to a certain number of centrist Liberal MPs even when (what's left of) the Liberal leadership opposes them

3) NDP-led, Liberal supported coalition takes power, and within months the Liberals act like a jilted wife in a forced marriage; the Liberals get destroyed from the left if the NDP governs well or from the right if the NDP governs like Bob Rae

Realistically the only way the Liberals are going to survive in the long term is if they can afford to posture and make principled stands while cleaning out all Chretien/Martin flunkies, which depends on the Conservative Party winning a majority, which itself seems shaky.

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Inspiration: http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/provincial_territorial_politics/clips/5192/

Ugh. You don't want any reminder of that.

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At this stage if the NDP forms government, the Liberals will have to lend their finance/economics experience since governing alone with an NDP finance minister would not be good either for the NDP or the country as a whole. It could be their final gift before the Liberals die.

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If the NDP wins outright and can be attributed to the Sun News massage story, then perhaps the "It's The Sun Wot Won It" headline from Britain in 1992 can ironically apply here.

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The evil side of me is hoping that Harper makes a half-assed attempt to get the Bloc to support his next budget by nakedly sweetening it up with goodies for Quebec and faces an open revolt from within the party.

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Nanos regionals are now up. Atlantic now a three way race with NDP marginally in front. NDP still trouncing in Quebec and Liberals now in 4th place. Slight CPC uptick in Ontario with Liberals slightly falling. Liberals now embarrassingly close to Greens in Prairies. Slight NDP to Liberal shift in BC.

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Ekos final projection: http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/final_seat_projection_may_1.pdf

EDIT: If the seat projection is exactly right, then my joke prediction in the other thread will be bang on.

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Montreal Anglophones will not vote for the same party as soft nationalists long-range. The disappearance of the remaining Liberal rump in that Province would almost entirely result in them going Tory, since they are not voting Liberal for purely policy reasons.

I also think the Atlantic support would split pretty evenly, especially if Harper was succeeded by someone like John Baird. The fact is that the NDP is culturally a bad fit. Its not that its Quebec caucus is made up of students, activists, and randoms, its that the party as a whole is identified with groups that a lot of the Liberal electorate does not want representing them even if they agree with them politically. If the Liberals and NDP were to merge while the NDP is artificially inflated by their Quebec win, a party of professionals would be replaced in the Toronto suburbs with a party of inner city activists, and that would be devastating.

This is not to say a merger should not happen. But it should not be a merger into the NDP. I have serious doubts that the NDP could ever win a 1-1 national election against the Tories in any circumstances. So a merged party would have to maintain the Liberal's respectability, something that is not possible until the current NDP caucus sorts itself out.

Doubtful the NDP will entertain a merger with a party with no (or negative) brand value. They will then have the problem of arrogance of the Liberals AND the ideological extremes of the NDP. And besides, the NDP clearly has the upper hand.

What they should do is find a few Toronto Liberals with a reputation for strength on the economy to make the party seem less scary to middle class voters. Then they should scavenge for the remains of the Liberal Party machine in the inner suburbs of larger cities. At the same time the NDP could retain their populist image in (several) rural areas. Once this happens they will be in a position to form respectable urban islands of orange with smatterings across the prairies. This is crucial since their Quebec caucus has nowhere to go but down.