Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

In my relative ignorance, Israel has moved to a very bad place, that has the potential if the policies endorsed to form a government sever over time the ties that bind and sustain Israel from the West. Maybe the Israeli government thinks it has a blank check from the West. If so, that might prove to be an incredibly tragic misjudgement for Israel. Where it is going I don't think can stand. It's just so wrong - hubris run wild. And no, Putin, just won't do as a substitute for Israel. He probably has even a shorter half life.

I dissent.

Netanyahu has never given a rats a** what the west thinks of him or his policies. Still doesn't.

If Biden wins re-election, I hope he finally moves the US away from "Always pro-Israel" to actually "Pro peace process" and "Pro real fairness".

Honestly, Biden should just cut off acess to Netanyahu. Make him person no grata to the US but very clear its just him, not Israel.

You can't simply freeze out a country's government for several years without essentially cutting off the country. Especially not when you have relationships with several dictatorships. This government definitely has the prospect to do some bad things, but worse than Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, just to name three?

Biden's hands are largely tied by the fallout from Obama's strike against Israel at the UN in the dying days of his administration.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

In my relative ignorance, Israel has moved to a very bad place, that has the potential if the policies endorsed to form a government sever over time the ties that bind and sustain Israel from the West. Maybe the Israeli government thinks it has a blank check from the West. If so, that might prove to be an incredibly tragic misjudgement for Israel. Where it is going I don't think can stand. It's just so wrong - hubris run wild. And no, Putin, just won't do as a substitute for Israel. He probably has even a shorter half life.

I dissent.

Netanyahu has never given a rats a** what the west thinks of him or his policies. Still doesn't.

If Biden wins re-election, I hope he finally moves the US away from "Always pro-Israel" to actually "Pro peace process" and "Pro real fairness".

Honestly, Biden should just cut off acess to Netanyahu. Make him person no grata to the US but very clear its just him, not Israel.

You can't simply freeze out a country's government for several years without essentially cutting off the country. Especially not when you have relationships with several dictatorships. This government definitely has the prospect to do some bad things, but worse than Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, just to name three?

Biden's hands are largely tied by the fallout from Obama's strike against Israel at the UN in the dying days of his administration.

Biden has been the most norm shattering president in a generation. From reconizing the Armenian genocide to pulling out of Afghanistan. His presidency has been vearing towards what is right, not politically expediedent.

My hopes aren't high, but if there WAS a President who could finally move the US away from Israel, it would be a second term Biden.

What would he risk? Dude isn't going to try to get a lobbying gig or boardroom job after the White House lol

If you want to start a cold war with one of the US' longest-term allies, responsible for many of the greatest military tech innovations in the world, then we are not remotely on the same page and thankfully Joe Biden has no interest in that.

And to be clear, if he took things too far to endanger that relationship long-term, he would be stopped by his own party.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

In my relative ignorance, Israel has moved to a very bad place, that has the potential if the policies endorsed to form a government sever over time the ties that bind and sustain Israel from the West. Maybe the Israeli government thinks it has a blank check from the West. If so, that might prove to be an incredibly tragic misjudgement for Israel. Where it is going I don't think can stand. It's just so wrong - hubris run wild. And no, Putin, just won't do as a substitute for Israel. He probably has even a shorter half life.

I dissent.

We don't agree on everything here, but you're right on one thing - I'm pretty sure Netanyahu knows he can't replace the US with anyone else. Particularly not Putin. As an "ally", Putin is a cruel parasite who bleeds his vassals dry and protects them as long as they're useful.

I imagine if there are any true red lines for Biden/the US, they'll be made very clear quickly and Netanyahu will quietly back down.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If this is the wrong thread for this, along with my other post here for that matter, and the responses (yes I did read the chastisements), someone can move it. It is not as if there is another thread that is readily visible, at least to me, and the idea of starting a new thread, on a board that I don’t feel really comfortable in in any event, seems inappropriate.

Anyway, it seems to already being hitting the fan, with whatever degree of seriousness I guess remains to be seen. One question I have, is about this chat about expelling Israeli Arabs (to where I don’t know). Is that a policy that is in real play, and being seriously considered? If that happens, that seems to be a real breaking point to me, vis a vis the West, including in particular the US, and it should be. But maybe the chat is just that, and not in serious play. Anyone have any informed opinions on that point? A codicil is what is the fate of the West Bank Arabs who don’t even have the status of being Israeli citizens sitting on land where their presence is unwanted.

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/12/29/695382/Biden--US-will-oppose-Israeli-policies-that-endanger-two-state-solution

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3791455-us-rabbis-warn-of-irreparable-harm-from-new-israeli-government/

And the NYT has this among other things:

“ … more than a hundred retired Israeli ambassadors and senior Foreign Ministry officials took the extraordinary step of signing a letter to Mr. Netanyahu this week expressing their “profound concern” at the potential harm to Israel’s strategic relations.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-government-swearing-in.html?searchResultPosition=3

Just from talking to the people I know there, no, I don't believe expelling Israeli Arabs is remotely on the table. That would almost definitely collapse the coalition immediately, for good reason.

My suspicion is that the worst part of this administration will be the sociopath caucus frequently making ridiculous threats and proposals that will keep the government in a constant state of controversy and dispute with its allies.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

How dependent is Israel on the US these days and the good will of its government? Maybe Israel has reached a place where it feels free to tell the US to take a hike.

That seems...not advisable for the Israelis.

Neither side can casually dispense with the other. The US relies heavily on Israeli R&D and intelligence - and more importantly, to ensure they can control the flow of it - while Israel absolutely does need the US as a reliable source for defense tech and a reliable vote against antisemitic forces at the UN.

I'm pretty confident the Biden administration knows this, and while I'm not confident Netanyahu and his craziest partners get it, I'm hoping a few of the saner members of the coalition do.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Bibi, as far-right as he is, always seemed like a credible leader and not a tin-pot autocrat. Cracking down on these terror militias is one of the most important tasks he's ever had. And if that means Ben-Gvir and co. break from the coalition, some of the moderate parties need to swallow their pride and form a temporary coalition.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Bibi, as far-right as he is, always seemed like a credible leader and not a tin-pot autocrat. Cracking down on these terror militias is one of the most important tasks he's ever had. And if that means Ben-Gvir and co. break from the coalition, some of the moderate parties need to swallow their pride and form a temporary coalition.

This is a fascinating take considering that Netanyahu's primary goal right now is to dismantle the courts so that corrupt convicts like Deri can serve in the government and so that the Arab parties can be banned from the Knesset.

He still likes to present himself as the face of "rule of law". I don't think he can afford to become the Prime Minister of violent outlaw vigilantes.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Looks like the court nullification bill has been shelved for the time being. They're still moving ahead with some limited bills to limit the court's power to disqualify corrupt officials and the like.

Must say, Biden is really good at using political leverage behind the scenes. Obama's problem with his dealings with Bibi from the start was that he always went straight to the bully pulpit, which you can't do effectively with an ally with broad public support.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

There does seem to be real resistance in Israel now, which is something.

From my observations, the government itself is sort of turning on Netanyahu. The Supreme Court directly weighing in is a huge moment, and even some members of his coalition are starting to bend.

It's not January 6th, but there is a parallel, in that both Trump and Netanyahu took moves that really only work once you've already consolidated your power, not before.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

It's largely unprecedented, but given the extremity of Netanyahu's actions (and the fact that he would likely have to go much further for this to happen), there's also an analogy to the hypothetical of the military stepping in after January 6th goes much worse.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The real tipping point here is the next election. Netanyahu will almost definitely lose at this point. The question is if he intends to turn this new, more powerful government apparatus over to a center-left coalition that will eviscerate his legacy, or if he'll attempt to use his new, more powerful government apparatus to seize power. If it's the former, Israel will remain a stable democracy but one more susceptible to risky legislative shifts with each election.