Landrieu has always had significant problems in reaching many Louisiana voters. Many Catholics, of which Louisiana has many and who have been typically Democrat, don't like her because she's pro-choice. The Protestant Northern part of the state votes against Democrats mostly in federal elections (except for the city of Shreveport at times). Landrieu squeaked by in 1996 even when Clinton was carrying the state by a strong margin and managed a 52%-48% win in 2002, incredibly weak for a LA incumbent and only with heavy turnout in N.O. and much of LA's other urban areas, and sub-par performance for the Republican candidate in places like Jefferson Parish.
The other problem for Landrieu is that 2008 is a presidential election year, and of all Democrats that might run, she must hope that Hillary is not it. The negative coattails would be too much, especially with about half of New Orleans' population gone.
What if there is a Warner/Lincoln ticket? I would expect a 51-49 victory for her (60-40 for Allen at the Pres. level). I think she could squeak through with this ticket. ANY other ticket, I say she loses.
I think its should be pointed out that while turnout in NO was ok, at the same time it didn’t favour Landrieu nearly as strongly as it might have as the GOP’s candidate came from the area.
On top of that Landrieu’s approvals are pretty good considering she lost a big chunk of her natural base with Katrina, at the same time Vitter’s approvals have been saved from mediocrity by Katrina… it would appear that her very high profile response to Katrina has secured her position for the time being in the new political geography of the state.
Certainly a Hillary or Feingold (oddly I see Hillary as more divisive) candidacy would probably mean huge negative coattails for Landrieu, but a Warner or Bayh ticket would probably only help her… she stands to win another close election in my estimation but a lot depends on how hard she works the state between now and then and who the Democrats nominate.
Tarheel’s right though a Warner/Lincoln ticket would be exceedingly strong, reinforces Warner’s appeal and makes up for his lack of legislative and general political experience… what more it includes a credible, competitive woman on a major party ticket
