Tory Leadership Contest Outcome

[Ben.]

Cameron, around 60-65%

[Ben.]

Little link to the David Cameron leadership campaign website…

http://www.cameroncampaign.org/index.html

…rather nice really Better than dear o’ld Basher’s LOL!     

[Ben.]

ICM Poll has Cameron beating Davis amongst Tory members 76-24%!

I'm more inclined to agree with YouGov who had Cameron at around 65%, and who have a much better track record… but saying that, I still think it perfectly possible that Cameron will break 70% and as a result have a pretty hefty mandate as the incoming leader, if Cameron demolishes Davis in the special Question Time Program this Thursday (which is likely) then there is going to be simply no way for the race to narrow if you ask me.

Oh and the Telegraph is running a story suggesting the hard right “cornerstone” group of Tory MPs will endorse Cameron, they had of course previously backed Liam Fox in the MP’s ballots… indeed I would expect Fox personally to be far more likely to endorse Cameron with whom he has good relations than Davis with whom he is very frosty, indeed it speaks volumes about Davis that the main way in which he gained support amongst MPs was with the implicate threat that to not back him would be remembered when he inevitably became leader… not the most effective way to build on an already shaky base of support.     

[Ben.]

Sample size of the ICM poll: 215

True... still impressive lead all the same, also they didn't poll any Tories in London. Lots of very large local Tory Parties most of which heavily lean towards Cameron... strangley if anything the poll might be underestimating Cameron (!)

[Ben.]

Oh and the Telegraph is running a story suggesting the hard right “cornerstone” group of Tory MPs will endorse Cameron, they had of course previously backed Liam Fox in the MP’s ballots

Ah well, David Cameron beholden to the wing nuts? Hardliner's supporting a 'moderniser' can't bode well in terms of a broader electoral platform

Dave

The wing nuts just want to have their fingers in as many pies as possible. They want a shadow cabinet post, but if Cameron gets a landslide, he can do what ever he wants.

I must admit a number of those in the "corner stone" group aren't that nutty... a few are even rather bright in their own way, and importantly its not just abortion, Europe and taxation with some (sadly not all) of them, they where heavily involved in IDS's “compassion agenda” – which itself was tremendously important in broadening the party’s policy approach and critically marked an end to “one issue” approach of the Hague years, sadly this success is largely forgotten about by many, when it was perhaps the only good thing to come out of IDS’s leadership.

I think Fox will be given a post, he and Cameron are on good terms personally (tennis partners so I hear)… and perhaps one of the younger right-wingers such Burrowes or Hands, at the same time I think Vaizey and Gove will also get promoted, Hague, Willets and Rifkin will also probably take up the big three jobs, especially if Davis has been humbled in the members ballot… though in the end it might be best to keep him in place, I wouldn’t be surprised if even with their friendship Osborn gets moved down and replaced with Willets… “two brains” would be by far their best pick for shadow chancellor, while Hauge and Rifkin would both be effective as either Shadow Home or Foreign Sectary. But I have an knack of looking for elegant cabinet reshuffles and not getting them                

[Ben.]

Bringing back Hauge and Wifkind would be kinda stupid if Cameron doesn't want to suddenly seem like "new boss same as old boss".

Rifkin is certainly one of the parliamentary Tory parties most able members added to which compared to Howard or Clark its hard to link him to the “bad old days”. I wonder if linking people back to the bad “old days” really works that well unless their the party leader, I mean Yoe and Redwood… however rabid the later might be don’t register with any but those with a special interest in politics, added to which they’ve had precious little impact on the general perception of the party… such an effect on the perception of the entire party is largely related to the leader, not shadow ministers. Rifkin also bolsters Cameron with a heavy hitter at the treasury to address the suggestion that Cameron is too inexperienced.

I think Hague’s ability as a commons performer and undoubted ability to manage a brief, mean that if he wants it, Cameron would be unwise to pass him up… Home Sectary and Chancellor would probably be too sensitive and Davis and Rifkin fill those briefs very ably, but he’d fit well as shadow foreign sectary.

I doubt either would really register with any but the politically obsessed, like us Rifkin certainly would find it very hard to elicit anything more than the accusation that he was “stuffy” but if he was providing ballast and punch for Cameron he’d work well. Hague, largely been forgotten these days, and his ability would be what was important in a post like shadow foreign sectary.

So I think you’ll see the “big boys” i.e. Davis, Willets, Rifkin and Hague taking the big jobs, but the likes of Gove, Vaizey, Osborne, Boris? ( ) Taking more junior posts… I do wonder if Cameron would be prepared to move Osborne to something less hefty than shadowing Brown, which Willets or Rifkin, or at a stretch, Hague could quite ably… You need a balance of experience and some of the younger Turks, especially with Cameron as leader, in the same way that Kennedy gets credibility from having the likes of Campbell and Cable in post (though as I’ve said Cameron is far more able than Kennedy), but it’s the same effect.