15 Most Likely Democrats

[Ben.]

Evan Bayh
John Kerry
Joe Biden

Hillary Clinton
Mark Warner

John Edwards
Wesley Clark

Tom Vilsack

Russ Feingold

...all are possibilities IMHO as candidate in the primaries; those who would seem very likely are Kerry, Biden and Bayh.

Clinton I think is still to make up her mind, the same applies to Warner. Both would have the potential to raise a lot of money but there are big doubts both inside the party and out as to weather Clinton could win a general election, at the same time there are question marks over Warner’s experience and he himself may prefer to wait to see if John Warner doesn’t run in 2008 and then if he retires run for Senate and if he does not run again for Governor.

Edwards and Clark both have very little chance at winning the nomination, if Clark decides not to run for Governor in Arkansas (he would probably be able to bring a lot of money into that race) then he is likely to have another look at a presidential run and once again would fail, and go back to academia or west point. Edwards meanwhile might forego what would be an uphill battle for the nomination a second time and concentrate firstly on caring for his wife Elizabeth (still suffering from cancer) and look to rebuild some kind of political career in North Carolina, perhaps with a run for Governor in 2008 or the House, to do that he would be wise to raise his profile in his native state and work to reposition himself as an “Easley/Warner Democrat”… I don’t know weather he’d be wise enough to take that path though.

Vilsack is currently chair of the DLC, and with either or both Bayh and Warner likely to run he would find the moderate wing of the party pretty well spoken for and would be unlikely to garner much interest from the party “moneymen” or indeed from the grassroots. Instead I think he’ll stick out his time as DLC chair and look for a run for president at some other point or perhaps even a run for senate, should the 72 year old (he’ll be 77 by the time he will next be eligible for election) Iowa senior Senator Chuck Crassley not seek re-election.

Russ Feingold could well find that, startlingly, he is the only credible and unabashedly liberal candidate in the Democratic primaries. While Kerry, Biden and Clinton will probably play defence on their liberal social stances there will only then be Warner and Bayh who are comparatively moderate on social issues (a potentially damaging stance in a Democratic primary)… potentially leaving Feingold to hoover up money from the left of the party. He will be able to draw money much in the way that Dean did in 2003/04, and will have a solid base on the left of the party, but the same problems that faced Dean, issues falling under the dreaded phrase “electability” would dog him as well… but overall Feingold would certainly be one of the best funded candidates in any primary race should he run, what is more he would have a loyal following on the liberal left, but the “electability issue” would pose problems for him in Iowa and New Hampshire and he would find it very tough going in the ensuing round of voting in the southern states.     

[Ben.]

Dog I don't need advice on what they should do, I'm not them. I'm just trying to come up with the top 15 Democrats so I can implement my rating system.

"Dog" seems a little harsh

Is its meant as an insult? in which case...

[Ben.]

ok maybe I need to say it again, perhaps I was unclear.

Likely NOMINEES, not people that want to run.

Al Sharpton's odds of winning the Democratic nomination are the same as mine: zero. So he should never be included in any kind of limited list such as the one I hope to have.

Also, it not necessary to keep repeating the ones we all agree on.

My understanding of Bredesen, who posters are still mentioning, is that he is hated by even TN Democrats and is perhaps to the right of many Republicans on some fiscal issues. How that equals a Democratic nomination to President I can't fathom, especially since he has no connections, no personal fortune I know of, and isn't even good looking or a brilliant speaker.

He's definitely not in the top 15 imho.

Being refered to as a dog is still rankouring with me I'm affraid (!) 

[Ben.]

um its a slang term meant to be endearing i.e. this is my dog = this is my friend.

There was nothing insulting in my post at all, I'm surprised you didn't get it though.

Out of the loop these days... the really scary thing was I was at a gig a week ago and remember thinking "who do these kids think they are"... terrible moment for me

Sorry to misconstrue but I take your point.

My list would be... 

Sn. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
Sn. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Sn. Mary Landrieu
Sn. Joe Biden (D-DE)
Sn. John Kerry (D-MA)
Sn. Blanche Lincoln
Sn. Russ Feingold (D-WI)

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM)
Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)
Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA)
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius(D-KS)

John Edwards (D-NC)
Wesley Clark (D-AR)
Al Gore (D-TN)

soon to be… Sn. Bob Casey (just for fun… and so I can vote for the guy)

[Ben.]

He's now running for Lt. Governor of Oklahoma.

Is that true

I still say that had Kerry not been the nominee or had the election not been in a presidential year, Carson, John, Bowles and Knowles would all have won... but it would potential have helped Carson the most.

[Ben.]

He's now running for Lt. Governor of Oklahoma.

Is that true

I still say that had Kerry not been the nominee or had the election not been in a presidential year, Carson, John, Bowles and Knowles would all have won... but it would potential have helped Carson the most.

Carson and Bowles maybe not.  But I think Mongiardo would have had a much better chance as well.

Indeed, it says something when an unknown comes within 1 point of beating a veteran incumbent republican senator in a red state in a presidential year... if Bush saved anyone it must have been Bunning, the man is seriously ill... sooner or later i expect Gov.Fletcher will need to think about a replacement… I just can’t see the guy last a full six year term in the state he’s in.