ARG in West Virginia! (user search)
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  ARG in West Virginia! (search mode)
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Author Topic: ARG in West Virginia!  (Read 5726 times)
Ben.
Ben
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« on: March 25, 2004, 04:25:00 PM »

Al... is proably right... if Kerry and Bush are evenly divided in WV at this stage Kerry may have the upper hand... steel workers in the north or the state and the population in the south are the keys to his victory... In fact WV could be a bellweather for this election... who ever wins WV might well win the election, as the national trend might well be in line with the result in WV... but its eight mounths yet...
     
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Ben.
Ben
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Posts: 4,249


« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2004, 04:41:27 PM »


I think this is surprisingly good for Kerry...I still think that he'll lose WV in the end...just like he'll lose OH and PA...and the election...

Gustaf... I really really don’t get why you rate Kerry as doing so poorly in the "steel states"... these are states that have done really badly under Bush... WV and OH  in particular and WV is historically Dem territory added to that Gore won PA by nearly 5%... so why are you so pessimistic?
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Ben.
Ben
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Posts: 4,249


« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2004, 07:35:37 PM »

WV is the only tossup state on my map.  I don't really know how the people there are going to vote; however, I hope that it's for Kerry.  And why in the heck is MO so strongly in favor of Bush?  That has to be some sort of political tool in the poll department.  Ben, what is it that you have been seeing in MO about feelings towards Bush and Kerry?

I'm sitting here in Missouri right now, and I think that the state has been slowly trending GOP for 15 to 20 years now.  Basically its been becoming more like Indiana or Kansas, and less like Illinois - all kindred states.



Hate to say it but Oepedo is about right… we have a (D) Gov who’s not brilliant but he’s ok, economically we’re doing alright… but we’re becoming less and less of a bellwether IMHO… a foreshadowing of what may happen across the Midwest in the next fifteen years or so… Kerry could play well with the catholic population here and that could help him, it was close here in 2000 and people often forget that… but I’m in the UK at the moment so I don’t have up to date first hand knowledge really… I think that Bond will have a tougher Senate fight than many originally predicted though….Farmer is a good candidate IMHO and could do well… but Bond will win in all likelihood… maybe I should have got my friends to vote for Berry just out of compassion for the guy…      


This from Politics 1: “In Missouri, Rasmusson's new poll shows Bush-49%, Kerry-42%. Bush won MO by 3 points in 2000.”          
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Ben.
Ben
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Posts: 4,249


« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2004, 03:42:04 AM »

WV is the only tossup state on my map.  I don't really know how the people there are going to vote; however, I hope that it's for Kerry.  And why in the heck is MO so strongly in favor of Bush?  That has to be some sort of political tool in the poll department.  Ben, what is it that you have been seeing in MO about feelings towards Bush and Kerry?

I'm sitting here in Missouri right now, and I think that the state has been slowly trending GOP for 15 to 20 years now.  Basically its been becoming more like Indiana or Kansas, and less like Illinois - all kindred states.



Hate to say it but Oepedo is about right… we have a (D) Gov who’s not brilliant but he’s ok, economically we’re doing alright… but we’re becoming less and less of a bellwether IMHO… a foreshadowing of what may happen across the Midwest in the next fifteen years or so… Kerry could play well with the catholic population here and that could help him, it was close here in 2000 and people often forget that… but I’m in the UK at the moment so I don’t have up to date first hand knowledge really… I think that Bond will have a tougher Senate fight than many originally predicted though….Farmer is a good candidate IMHO and could do well… but Bond will win in all likelihood… maybe I should have got my friends to vote for Berry just out of compassion for the guy…      


This from Politics 1: “In Missouri, Rasmusson's new poll shows Bush-49%, Kerry-42%. Bush won MO by 3 points in 2000.”          


Ben, good analysis of our homestate.  I just got back two weeks ago from 7 months in Thailand, so I'm not exactly up to date on the local 'feel'.  I guess we both like to be From here more than to be here eh?


It can get dull... but I'm near ST.L so i isnt too bad... but still its home
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