To be honest I'm more worried about Maine-2nd, Iowa and Wisconsin than Minnesota... and even more worried about Oregon.
I've given up on New Mexico... and have doubts about New Jersey...
I'm much more worried about Iowa and Minnesota as well as New Mexico than WI and PA... however I recon that MN will remain in the Dem column come November party because of the large part liberal independent candidates played in making the 2000 contest so close in the state and acting as spoilers for the Dems in 2002 in both the governorship and Senate elections...Iowa seems to be tending to the right however it will be as close as in 2000 however I would give the edge to Bush, In New Mexico I think that Bush's courting of the Hispanic vote will pay off and he'll take the state by a slim margin....Wisconsin I just don’t see going for Bush, the state's congressional delegation and state government is overwhelmingly Democratic, in 2000 Nader got 4% in the state add that to Gore's total and you have a slim but not very slim win for the Dems and I expect them to win the state...if Iowa tends towards Bush then I'd say that could be offset with a VP like Warner or another candidate with plenty of experience wooing rural voters, if Iowa tends to the right that could also mean that MO will go again for Bush....Ohio however is the critical state and there a VP like Edwards would be more help for Kerry IMHO, however I reckon that Kerry will stand a stronger chance there where unemployment is height and the repeal of the steel tariffs will hurt Bush than in MO or IA...as for Oregon I doubt it will opt for Bush in a state where environmental concerns are so high a priority Bush doesn’t have a record to be proud of, as with many of the Midwestern states Nader did well here winning 5% of the vote which this time round will mostly go for Kerry again I would imagine that the Democrats in places like Portland will be highly motivated and suburban liberals who stayed home last time will most likely vote this time around but as always its eight months away...any prediction is hazardous... by the way (I know your nor from WV but) how do you see the race in WV going?
