Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2024, 09:17:49 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread (search mode)
Pages: 1 [2]
Poll
Question: Rate the 2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election
#1
Safe R
 
#2
Likely R
 
#3
Lean R
 
#4
Tossup/tilt R
 
#5
Tossup/tilt D
 
#6
Lean D
 
#7
Likely D
 
#8
Safe D
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 170

Author Topic: Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread  (Read 25378 times)
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,401
Russian Federation


« Reply #25 on: October 15, 2023, 12:20:26 PM »
« edited: October 15, 2023, 12:50:26 PM by smoltchanov »

Well, the problem (from Democratic point of view) is not only Landry. It's the fact, that in low turnout conservative activists-dominated election like yesterday the most conservative wing of Republican party wins at the expense of more pragmatic (even if still conservative) wing. Most serious R-R races yesterday went for "ideologues" in Republican party, and run-offs will have even lesser turnout - so their ranks may expand even more. There are Republicans (at least there were) who want to govern (and more or less knows how to do that), and there is considerable number of local "Matt Gaetz'es" who, essentially, knows only how to destruct things under the guise of "following their principles". The last category of people will be more vocal and more influential as a result...
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,401
Russian Federation


« Reply #26 on: October 16, 2023, 02:39:30 AM »
« Edited: October 16, 2023, 06:06:58 AM by smoltchanov »

Well, Louisiana elections demonstrate general problems of minority parties, being that Democratic in most of the South, or Republican, say, in Hawaii, Vermont or Massachusetts: minority  parties and their leaders are generally concerned with preserving their small "plots" - and that, essentially, all. What party development??!! Their concern is to preserve, say, their state Senate seat, and everything is tailored for this, and this only. It seems there is a sort of informal agreements between parties in such cases: "we will tend our plots, and you don't bother us here, we will do the same and not bother you in your plots". From such point of view last elections were relative success (despite general drubbing) for Democrats: they lost only 1 state Senate seat (which, probably, only Gary Smith could hold), and may preserve status quo in House. But Democrats ran no serious candidates in a districts they didn't held before (or even in a moderate district reperesented by Independent Marino). As i wrote above - only 3 Democrats went into runoff in Republican-held House districts, and their chances of victory are near zero. The same will happen in Mississippi next month, and we observe the same in Hawaii or Massachusetts: Republicans in Massachusetts don't run candidates in 2/3 to 3/4 districts, but, Democrats don't run anyone against, say, Tarr, though his district went about 60% for Biden. In Hawaii Republicans are mostly interested in holding (anf rarely - gaining) seats in "their" area (say - with strong Mormon presence), and almost ignore most of the statewide or congressional races.

Another problem (which i also mentioned frequently) - state parties lost their "independence" from national one sometime in 1970, and now simply mirror positions of national party, despite (frequently) quite different environment iin their states. Take Louisiana, for example. Not especially conservative on economics (though not most liberal either), but very conservative on abortion. There are few areas  (New Orleans, Baton Rouge and, in some case - Shreveport), where solidly pro-choice candidates have chances, and that's not enough for statewide win (it's another matter, say, in California or New York, where there are enough pro-choice majority in NYC and close suburbs to rather easily overcome generally pro-life feelings of Upstate).  IF you want to win a statewide race there - you must take into consideration that fact. Louisiana itself demonstrates that - it was ready to vote for "pro-life populist" JBE not only in 2015, when there was a big scandal on Republican side, but even in 2019 (admittedly - with rather weak Republican candidate, but still). In addition - that candidate (JBE) was conveniently white. In 2023 Democratic candidate was not only Black, but, what was even more important - social liberal. BOTH parties now subjugate their state and local candidates to national standards: even 15 years ago no one demanded not only in the South, but - from Catholic Democratic candidates in the North too, an obligatory pro-choice position, and Republicans, while being generally pro-life, happily ran pro-choice candidates in the North-East (and frequently won). What now??? A "RINO-hunt" in Republican party and "DINO-hunt" in Democratic. Both parties became very similar to our Russian Bolshevicks and then - Commuist party of Soviet Union. Absolutely no tolerance of diversity on important issues. I wrote many times, that it may work, when you have parlamentary system with, say, 7-10 political parties running the whole political spectrum. But in US??? With 2 parties?Huh As a result we have an extremely serious (and stronger with each year) political crisis threatening to evolve in real Civil War in not so distant future.

Sorry for a long post, but it's how it looks from far abroad (Moscow). It's a sad feeling, when one sees democracy (with small "d") staggering and crumbling not only in my Russia, but in US and similar countries as well..
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,401
Russian Federation


« Reply #27 on: October 16, 2023, 08:08:43 AM »
« Edited: October 16, 2023, 12:55:03 PM by smoltchanov »

And small addition on the above mentioned "RINO-hunting" and "DINO-hunting". Ironically, these campaigns are fiercely going at the time, when, essentially, there are no RINO's and DINO's at least on relatively high posts (state legislatures and higher). I mentioned once, that i have first (1971-1972) edition of "Almanac of American politics". When i hear NOW about "RINO's" and "DINO's" - i begin to laugh, and have strong desire to say "guys. you don't even know, what these terms mean...". The most moderate congressional Republicans of now (Collins, Murkowski, Fitzpatrick) would be considered "right-of-center" types then, and aren't even remorely comparable with Case, Javits, Ogden Reid, Charles Whalen, Mathias and many other Republican members of Congress of that time. Or even Morella, Boehlert and other if we speak about much more recent times. The same is true for state legislatures: there are no RINO's anymore. Not even in Vermont, Massachisetts or New York. And even Phil Scott (arguably the most liberal high-ranking Republican of present) would be, most likely, somewhere between "left center" and "moderate liberal", and couldn't pretend to be "the most liberal Republican governor"

The same true for DINO's: Manchin? He would be considered "slightly left-of-center type" then and wouldn't hold any comparison with Andrews  and Allen of Alabama, Abbitt, Satterfield  or Daniel of Virginia, Burleson, Fisher and Dowdy of Texas and so on. You want more recent time? Good, even in 2009-2010 Democratic caucus in House had Minnick and Bright, who, while NOT being reactionary (as Larry Mcdonald or John Rarick in the past were) still could be called "pragmatic conservatives". And Manchin is incomparable even with them.

Just as there are no more RINO's in state legislatures now (the most moderate Republican state legislators are "slightly left-of-center" type), there are no DINO's as well: the only one, who could be even remotely considered for this title - Louisiana's Francis Thompson (though even he is LESS conservative, then many Democratic state legislators in the South (and not only there) in recent past) switched this spring and was happily reelected as a Republican two days ago, so he is NOT a Democrat anymore. Guys, all this talk about RINO's and DINO's is extremely hypocritical:  it's simply a way to defame anyone, who dares to  deviate from "official party line" (even rarely). Nothing more...
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.028 seconds with 14 queries.