Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[smoltchanov]

As i said many times - JBE and, probably, Beshear on Democratic side, and Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott - on Republican, are examples of "the last of Mohicans". After them - US elections will become even more predictable and boring... They already are in 98% of cases, they will - in 99.9%. Only fundamental change in party system can help to avoid such situation...

[smoltchanov]

As i said many times - JBE and, probably, Beshear on Democratic side, and Baker, Hogan and Phil Scott - on Republican, are examples of "the last of Mohicans". After them - US elections will become even more predictable and boring... They already are in 98% of cases, they will - in 99.9%. Only fundamental change in party system can help to avoid such situation...

I don't think the moderate Rs on the East Coast will die out, given how Scott/Baker/Hogan have all won landslide victories during D waves and presidential years. Red states do seem to be getting redder on the state level though.

Well - yes and no, IMHO. Moderate Rs on the East coast need to win primaries first. And in situation where (even on the East Coast) most of party organizations are dominated by Trumpists, and many "activists", who dominate primaries, are Trumpists too, that may become serious problem. In 2018 both Baker and Scott had conservative primary opponents, who, while having no chances in GE, and being much "lower class" politicians in general, were, nevertheless, able to get about 1/3 of primary vote simply by being "real conservatives". BTW - the same may gradually happen with Democrats in red staes: only"diehard activists" will care about Democratic primaries, most liberal (and having no chances in GE) candidates - nominated, and Republicans - elected.

[smoltchanov]

Toss-up. Depends on nominees. Slight GOP edge.

Er, no...

this is an even safer flip than MA-GOV 2022/MD-GOV 2022

Not much safer, but at least - on par (may be -slighjtly more safe). Even much more conservative candidate (at least Blanco-level) wouldn't save party now, and "progressive" (especially - "social progressive") as a statewide candidate in this state is a mockery pf highest order...

[smoltchanov]

Well, i can't imagine circumstances, where Democrats (especially - with present left-leaning (despite some remnants of conservatism on such issues as choice) party in very socially conservative state) would hold governorship in 2023. Yes, Louisiana elects probably the most conservative Democratic state legislator in nation (IMHO, that's Francis Thompson, but he is a product of another era), but JBE was so much an exception (generally socially conservative populist with extremely damaged opponent) in 2015, that it would be naive to think it will happen again soon. So i would even consider "the least objectionable Republican" (of Dardenne-type for example) as reasonable alternative. We shall see whether it will become a reality..

[smoltchanov]

It's quite unlikely that Democrats win, so the real contest will be for the Republican nomination.

Louisiana still has jungle primaries, so we could even be looking at an R-vs-R general election.  Strategically, Democrats should just get behind the least objectionable Republican in order to make sure there's a sane runoff choice.  A moderate Republican with even limited Democrat support would easily beat a more conservative Republican in the runoff.

Exactly what i have said. Moderate (and even more so - relatively conservative) Democrats, who had an appeal in rural areas and more conservative suburbs, are almost extinct (or Republican) now, and, surely, can't win a primary where majority of voters will be Black. On the other side - "progressives" have zero chances in general election.....

[smoltchanov]

So most everyone is in agreement that Republicans will claim the governor's mansion.  Can they finally win a veto-proof majority in the Louisiana House? They fell short by only a couple of seats last time.  Here is the current breakdown in the chamber:

Republicans: 68
Democrats: 33
independents: 3
vacancies: 1

https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana_State_Legislature

Or will they get that magic 70 as a result of redistricting alone?

Both are possible. AFAIK - redistricting strengthened Republican positions in legislature somewhat. In addition - usually, Republicns can count on at least 2 (sometimes - all 3)  Indies (one of which is a former conservative-leaning Democrat from conservative district), and on Francis Thompson - really conservative Democrat from North-East of the state, who was so well known (and popular) in his district, that Republicans didn't run a candidate against him in 2019, despite district being 70+% Trump... If (what's likely) Thompson retires in 2023 (he will be 82) - district will surely elect even more conservative republican. So - "yes" is very likely..

[smoltchanov]

I can't see anyone beating Landry.

[smoltchanov]

So most everyone is in agreement that Republicans will claim the governor's mansion.  Can they finally win a veto-proof majority in the Louisiana House? They fell short by only a couple of seats last time.  Here is the current breakdown in the chamber:

Republicans: 68
Democrats: 33
independents: 3
vacancies: 1

https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana_State_Legislature

Or will they get that magic 70 as a result of redistricting alone?

Both are possible. AFAIK - redistricting strengthened Republican positions in legislature somewhat. In addition - usually, Republicns can count on at least 2 (sometimes - all 3)  Indies (one of which is a former conservative-leaning Democrat from conservative district), and on Francis Thompson - really conservative Democrat from North-East of the state, who was so well known (and popular) in his district, that Republicans didn't run a candidate against him in 2019, despite district being 70+% Trump... If (what's likely) Thompson retires in 2023 (he will be 82) - district will surely elect even more conservative republican. So - "yes" is very likely..

Checked the numbers again, and they are only down by 1 now:

Republicans: 69
Democrats: 33
independents: 2
vacant: 1

Malinda White switched from Indie (and Democrat - before) to Republican in anticipation for possible race for parish President. Typical evolution of white conservatively-leaning Democrats. Former governor Blanco daughter is running (AFAIK) for Lafayette mayor as a Republican. Soon Democratic party in Louisiana may become as "Black party" as it is in Alabama (1 white state Senator and couple of white state Representatives, probably - from majority Black districts)....

[smoltchanov]

Any chance of a top two dem runoff?

Or a top two gop runoff?

First - almost mpossible. Requires > 10 Republican candidates, of which, say, 5-6 are serious. Second - quite possible, but will depend on final candidate's list.

[smoltchanov]

Shawn Wilson formally announced his candidacy today:

https://twitter.com/wilsonforla/status/1632730066143641601?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

Exactly zero chances to win (as it would be for any candidate with "national Democratic views", Black or White, but especially - Black), but, nevertheless, probably one of the strongest candidates Democrats can run now. That says a lot about state of the party in Louisiana.

[smoltchanov]

It looks like the most significant challenger Jeff Landry is going to have is John Schroder, the State Treasurer.

I more or less knew how the other major Republicans were positioned politically, but I have to admit I don't know much about Schroder. Is he more moderate, more conservative, or similar to Landry? Is there any possibility he becomes the de facto alternative candidate to Landry?

Local denizens will give better answer, but, AFAIK - he is a solid conservative, almost "on par" with Landry, just less "vocal". Nungesser would be "moderate alternative" to Landry, but, with him deciding to pass this race, in absence of Vitter-type scandal i don't see real alternatives to Landry now..

[smoltchanov]

Democrats won Louisiana in 2015 mostly because of two reasons:

1. EXTREMELY big scandal with Vitter
2. Good candidate - generally populist (and white) with some strong conservative overtones (absolutely pro-life for example).

They won in 2019 (narrowly) because of incumbency, rather weak Republican candidate, and, again, because of JBE's strong pro-life position, which held considerable number of socially conservative Democrats "ln line".

None of these factors exist in 2023.

[smoltchanov]

After that, it's unlikely he'll win, but there are paths to victory if he runs against Jeff Landry and especially against Stephen Waguespack who was Governor Bobby Jindal's Chief of Staff.

No, really there is no path. Jindal is "a thing of the past", and grudges against him are mostly obsolete now. Landry is an extremist, but without big Vitter-type scandals, so he will win against Wilson. Obviously - Wilson will get at least 40% of vote (if he runs real campaign). The problem is to get 10 "next". 45 is possible with very good Democratic candidate or with problematic Republican, but 50 - there must be something really big (as in 2015) for that. Otherwise - too steadfast white vote against Democratic candidate dooms everything. Under more or less "normal" situation 46-47% (Hood percentage in Mississippi in 2019) is upper limit...

[smoltchanov]

Democrats won Louisiana in 2015 mostly because of two reasons:

1. EXTREMELY big scandal with Vitter

Vitter's scandal came out before his 2010 reelection. Yeah, I know no Republican senator was going to lose in 2010, but he could've been challenged by another Republican.

It was more just how divisive the GOP primary had been (yes, I know it's a jungle primary, but there were three major Republicans and just one major Democrat). One of his opponents actually endorsed bel Edwards and the other was neutral.

Plus, the Republican Governor was pretty unpopular though he and Vitter weren't exactly allies.

Well, i read the book about JBE campaign, and there was a clear statement there, that Vitter scandal came out during gubernatorial campaign (it was basis for famous "Patriots against prostitutes" video). Though i agree, that Republican candidates were different that time, and either Dardenne or Angelle would beat JBE...

[smoltchanov]

Democrats won Louisiana in 2015 mostly because of two reasons:

1. EXTREMELY big scandal with Vitter

Vitter's scandal came out before his 2010 reelection. Yeah, I know no Republican senator was going to lose in 2010, but he could've been challenged by another Republican.

It was more just how divisive the GOP primary had been (yes, I know it's a jungle primary, but there were three major Republicans and just one major Democrat). One of his opponents actually endorsed bel Edwards and the other was neutral.

Plus, the Republican Governor was pretty unpopular though he and Vitter weren't exactly allies.

Well, i read the book about JBE campaign, and there was a clear statement there, that Vitter scandal came out during gubernatorial campaign (it was basis for famous "Patriots against prostitutes" video). Though i agree, that Republican candidates were different that time, and either Dardenne or Angelle would beat JBE...

It came out in 2007 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senator-caught-in-dc-madam-scandal/

Now, having said that, you're right that the scandal was still a major issue in the gubernatorial campaign. My guess is that Louisiana just cares more about who their governor is than their senator. And 2010 wasn't happening in a vacuum....it was a national midterm election in which all the focus was on the Democrats as the party controlling the WH & Congress. 2015's an off-year election with just three gubernatorial races.

Well, quite possible. Though i am honestly surprised, that for 8 years no one was really interested in this scandal. I understand, that before 2015 and after 2007, the only election Vitter came through was for Senate in very good for republicans 2010, and agree with your reasoning, but still - surprised...

[smoltchanov]

With what bench?

Democratic bench in Louisiana is, essentially, a "Black bench". And - no Black politician i know now in Louisiana is able to get a crossover support needed to win statewide. Period (well, a sort of reverse happened recently in Shreveport, where Republican candidate got considerable Black support and won convincingly in usually Democratic-leaning city. Democrats need, essentially,  the same, but i don't expect it to happen this year).

[smoltchanov]

JBE was a one-man show and was clearly viewed as more of a de facto independent candidate than a Dem.  If you look at the 2019 results, no one else even came close.  Louisiana is shaping up to be one of the most Republican states in the country so long as national Dems make abortion a centerpiece of their campaigns. 

Louisiana may not be "one of the most Republican states in the country" (it's easy to name about 10 more Republican states), but, surely, one of the most "pro-life". In the past it was reflected in composition of state Democratic caucus: even most of Black Democratic legislators were "pro-life". That slowly changes (and, probably, will change more with such pro-life state legislators as Smith and Tarver reiring), and Democratic caucucs will, most likely, become more "pro-choice" (though still to lesser degree, then nationally) in the near future. But that alone will almost guarantee a permanent minority status for Democrats by itself...

[smoltchanov]

I wouldn’t be surprised if we never see another Democrat Governor of Louisiana in this century. JBE was probably the last of his kind to be able to win over the requisite rural support to win. You can’t win Louisiana based on doing well in suburbs like you can in other states.

Well, 77 years is a long time (and, most likely, no one of us will live so long to have a possibility to confirm or refute this statement), and anything may happen. I expected Louisiana (with its rather populist past combuned with deep social conservatism) being very receptive to trumpism. But even i was startled to see how a well-known (and at most - centrist, sometimes even conservative-leaning) Democratic candidates (including many present or past officeholders) not only lost, but lost overwhelmingly to absolutely "bland" republican candidates in rural areas of the state in 2019 legislative elections (including Cajun areas, which quite recently elected a lot of Democrats, even if conservatively-leaning on social issues). Solely because of "D" letter after name. The rural areas of Louisiana became a "scorched earth" territory for Democrats (except, obviously, areas with Black majorities).There is some slow movement of suburbs to Democrats, but - not everywhere (Jefferson parish - mostly "yes", Livingston and Plaquemines - mostly "no"), and for now it can't compensate an almost absolute collapse of party in rural parts of the state.

P.S. The only plus for Democrats i see now - they already lost on legislative level almost everything that could be lost. No more then 1 (Smith's) state Senate seat and no more then 1-2 state  House seats (say, Brown's, or some similar...) are endangered this year, and that may be compensated by small gains in suburbs. No more party switches (maximum 1-2), almost all, who wanted - already switched. And so on. Democrats essentially hit (or - are close to) natural "bottom", and can't fall  substantially lower...

[smoltchanov]

The simple answer no one has mentioned yet:  there simply isn't a Democratic recruit of Brandon Presley's pedigree available in Louisiana.  MS Democrats regularly land good recruits (2023, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2014, etc.) in a way that Democrats in other Deep South states (AL, LA, etc.) do not.

Presley may be the last of this streak, however.  The bench is pretty thin after he exits.     

Just as in Louisiana, bench in Mississippi gradually becomes a "Black bench", and in a state like this it isn't a plus... Espy was as "non-frightening" as possible, and still failed.... And i don't see better Black candidates right now. The same - in Louisiana, the same - in Alabama. Not enough Blacks "per see", and very few urban white liberals (except, may be, New Orleans, but it's still decimated by Katrina) because there are  almost no really big and economically advanced cities.

[smoltchanov]

Postfiling notes:

If i counted correctly - only 11 state Senate and 22 state House seats will have candidates from both major parties(20 Senate seats are almost guaranteed to go Republican as well as 55 seats in House, 8 state Senate seats and 28 in House - Democratic). A very low level of competition, as expected, expecially given the fact, that most of the remaining seats are not especially competitive too.

Democrats almost hit the bottom in this state: i see only 1 presently Democratic state Senate seat they are likely to lose (Smith's SD19) and 1 potentially very competitive Democratic seat in House (105th). But they are equally unlikely to win more then 1-2 seats from Republicans too (if any).

Vast majority of Democratic candidates is Black, even greater majority of Republican - white, so - parties really polarized by race.

In general - October election will be interesting because of de facto "primaries" in many "reliable" districts, not because of competitions between parties. November - less so. If more then 5 districts will have not so predictable Democratic-Republican outcomes - i will be really surprised..

P.S. The idea for one of my topics in "Political geography" (that US,  essentially, consists of 2 non-contiguous 1-party states, welded together, and, simultaneously, bitterly hating each other) came after studying candidates lists like this in Louisiana))))

P.S. 2 Again, if i counted correctly - 11 state Senate seats (9R, 2D) and 32 state House seats (24R, 7D, 1I) are open. Rather considerable number, but, as stated above, the number of competitive seats is minimal, and besides them there will be very few "surprises" in elections (may be - only some in "primaries")))))

P.S. 3 Correlation between Trump/Biden victories in districts and Republican/Democratic representation of these districts is not simply high, but - extremely high. Again, if i counted correctly - 28 of 39 state Senate districts were won by Trump, 11 - by Biden, and i expect 28-11 ratio in state Senate after election (now - 27-12 because of Smith's SD19). Almost the same in House, where 60th and 105th are the only (as i see) districts, which went for Trump and elected Democrats last time... (stricktly speaking - 18th, 19th and 75th - too, but all these former Democrats - switched), and 92th (now represented by relatively moderate republican Stagni) - the only one, which went for Biden and elected Republican (but Democrats, just as Republicans in 60th, don't run anyone here)

P.S. 4 Nothing really interesting on statewide level - all statewide posts will rather easily go Republican, unless an extremely big scandal happens somewhere...

P. S. 5 Afrer filnalization of filing lists situation became evem more lopsided: State Senate - 20 "pure Republican" didtricts, 2 - R+I, 9 - D, and only 8 where both major parties are represented (1 of them includes Indie too), and, most likely, the same will be in State House. So - even less districts to watch.

[smoltchanov]

Any possibility Shawn Wilson doesn't make the runoff?

Very unlikely.

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, it seems that Wilson conducts very weak campaign. Of course, being essentially the only one known Democratic candidate will get him enough votes to get into runoff, but that's essentially all. Even worse - Democrats have almost no bench in the state: their only serious (but he will lose too) candidate for row offices is, probably, Dustin Granger for Treasurer. They are lucky, that they can't lose seriously in state legislative races, but it's only because they hit the bottom already. As i wrote couple of month ago   - there is only one state Senate district (SD-19), which they can (and most likely - will) lose today, and, most likely, only one (HD-105) which they theoretically can lose too. That's all. But at the same time they have about zero chances to gain anything. Sorry sight. Not only really conservative Thompson, but relatively moderate LaCombe (a very partisan Democrat in recent past, who was a participant in some anti-Republican suites) decided to run this year as Republicans. No one wants to be loser.... Some parish presidents dropped the Democratic affiliation this year too. I don't see any serious chances for Democrats in near future

[smoltchanov]

Is there any Republican running who would be palatable to Democratic voters? It seems the only way Demcratic voters could defeat Jeff Landry in the runoff is to back a different Republican.

If you mean governor election - no. Wilson is essentially guaranteed one slot, Landry - another. It's not difficult to predict who will win runoff. Democrats were blessed with JBE (and Vitter scandal) for 8 years, but - it comes to an end. Even in Mississippi chances are better (though - not by much).

[smoltchanov]

Well, at first look - results were predictable. The only surprise - Landry won outright, but that was mostly because of very weak campaign on part of Wilson. The best Democratic statewide candidate (Granger) got 32% and will lose GE handily..

State legislature: as expected Republicans won Gary Smith district (SD-19), and rather easily. Smith was somewhat conservative-leaning (including pro-life) white with substantial crossover support, yesterday's candidate - relatively liberal Black woman. Feel the difference... Other seats will remain held by party, which held them before, so - +1 Republicans. 2 state Senate run-offs (1 D-D, 1 R-R).

In House - no party change yet, and the only (as i see it) intrigue is in HD-105 i mentioned before. Republican candidate got 40%, incumbent centrist Democrat - 29. But 2 Democrats together got 56%.

18 (if i counted correctly) run-offs, but mostly - intraparty (4 D-D and 9 R-R). Of remaining 1 is D-I and only 4 - normal D-R (but even there serious competition isn't very likely).

P.S. (for illustration) Outgoing Democratic state senator in SD-19 supported Republican candidate yesterday. It really becomes boring with almost all whites (outside, may be, New Orleans and Baton Rouge cities) voting Republican, and almost all Blacks - Democratic. Look at white and Black percentages in a district - and you almost all know result beforehand.

[smoltchanov]

Didn't even come to a runoff in the end. Always expected Landry to win but not quite so suddenly.

Beshear had better not be resting on his laurels already then.

Kentucky isn’t really reliant on black voters the way Louisiana and Mississippi are. This result really just reaffirms that Mississippi is Likely or even Safe R, but doesn’t tell us much about KY.

If Black turnout craters in Mississippi like in Louisiana - then sure...