PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[smoltchanov]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

I'm gonna be honest, I'd rather lose with Fetterman, Cartwright, or Kenyatta than win with Lamb. I cannot handle another Sinema sabotaging the Democratic agenda at every opportunity for "bipartisanship" points back home.

Or we could have a Republican that votes against 1% of everything good. So much worse than Lamb voting for 80% of everything good.

+101. I really hate idiots, who are ready to lose "for the sake of ideological purity"...  Very strongly....

[smoltchanov]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

[smoltchanov]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Pennsylvania is substantislly more republican, then Illinois, and you know that. Biden, who  was born there (Scranton, not Philly...), is white, straight, and so on, won it by relatively small margin... So, your irony is useless here..

[smoltchanov]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Pennsylvania is substantislly more republican, then Illinois, and you know that. Biden, who  was born there (Scranton, not Philly...), is white, straight, and so on, won it by relatively small margin... So, your irony is useless here..

It's a shame he never ran for president so we'll never know how we he performed in Pennsylvania. He would have probably lost by 10 points if he had.

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Obama ran in very blue Illinois against freaking Alan Keyes. Something tells me Kenyatta won’t have that luxury in a much less blue PA. He would be an incredible risky, and I would say stupid, nominee in a likely 2022 election environment. “But he’s progressive and can boost youth an minority turnout” (just like Andrew Gilliam who did neither of those things in a much better political environment). I’ll take Fetterman who is “progressive” but maybe can con enough people with the Everyman schtick or some moderate hero who can win. People need to realize issue positions don’t mean squat to voters who don’t live in a bubble online. Style, winning, and power are all that matter in politics.

Yeah, he ran a race anywhere except a deep blue stronghold, all those rural democrats would have never voted for him. Unlike Hillary Clinton who would have won the state in a landslide through #populism.

It's interesting to see utter lack of REAL arguments, but lot of desire to argue even knowing that other side is righ, and you are not...

[smoltchanov]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Pennsylvania is substantislly more republican, then Illinois, and you know that. Biden, who  was born there (Scranton, not Philly...), is white, straight, and so on, won it by relatively small margin... So, your irony is useless here..

It's a shame he never ran for president so we'll never know how we he performed in Pennsylvania. He would have probably lost by 10 points if he had.

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Obama ran in very blue Illinois against freaking Alan Keyes. Something tells me Kenyatta won’t have that luxury in a much less blue PA. He would be an incredible risky, and I would say stupid, nominee in a likely 2022 election environment. “But he’s progressive and can boost youth an minority turnout” (just like Andrew Gilliam who did neither of those things in a much better political environment). I’ll take Fetterman who is “progressive” but maybe can con enough people with the Everyman schtick or some moderate hero who can win. People need to realize issue positions don’t mean squat to voters who don’t live in a bubble online. Style, winning, and power are all that matter in politics.

Yeah, he ran a race anywhere except a deep blue stronghold, all those rural democrats would have never voted for him. Unlike Hillary Clinton who would have won the state in a landslide through #populism.

It's interesting to see utter lack of REAL arguments, but lot of desire to argue even knowing that other side is righ, and you are not...

Your argument is that he won't win in PA because he's black, gay and from philidaelphia. I've pointed out that candidates with similar hindarnces have won the state by huge margins.

Obama is straight and Illinois is substantially more Democratic then Pennsylvania (at least - because Chicago is bigger then Philly)... Plus - Obama wasn't SO liberal...

[smoltchanov]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Um... what's the problem with being black, gay, and from Philadelphia? Plenty of minorities get elected and even outperform white candidates....

Well, nothing from my personal view - i have nothing against Blacks or gays. But i doubt that such candidate (i must add "very liberal" too) is the best by strictly "electability" criterion. In Russia, at least, there is a very strong dislike against us, Moscow citizens, in most other areas of country. And to win Democrats need not only "motivate base", and get out Philadephia's vote,  but to attract other people - Independents and their like. I sincerely doubt, that candidate of Kenyatta type is the best by criteria of, say, typical coal miner of SW Pennsylvania - mostly white ethnic people.. Combine that with very strong ideological orientation, which makes attraction of most Indies and Centrists more difficult - and you will get far from the best candidate. Just that...

[smoltchanov]

I know, I know, the comparisons are played out. But Georgia just elected a black pastor and a Jewish millennial and we're still doing the whole "Kenyatta is unelectable because he's gay and black" spiel. Give me a break.

One moment: Georgia isn't Pennsylvania

Exactly how i would answer. All states are different. Pennsylvania has much less Blacks and much more ethnics, then Georgia, for example.. And Pennsylvania outside of Philly and suburbs (plus Pittsburgh and suburbs) may compete with Alabama by it's conservatism..

[smoltchanov]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Pennsylvania is substantislly more republican, then Illinois, and you know that. Biden, who  was born there (Scranton, not Philly...), is white, straight, and so on, won it by relatively small margin... So, your irony is useless here..

Wisconsin...2012. Madison lesbo didn't stand a chance.

Of course there are such examples. In San Francisco it's only a political plus to be gay, for example. But not every area of country is San Francisco...

[smoltchanov]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Pennsylvania is substantislly more republican, then Illinois, and you know that. Biden, who  was born there (Scranton, not Philly...), is white, straight, and so on, won it by relatively small margin... So, your irony is useless here..

Wisconsin...2012. Madison lesbo didn't stand a chance.

Can a gay candidate win statewide in PA? Sure. Could a black candidate? Sure. Could a so-called progressive? Sure. Could a Philadelphian? Sure.

Could a gay, black, progressive from Philadelphia win in a likely mediocre to poor ‘22 environment? Color me skeptical.

You said it better then i could. Too many potentially problematic features. Simply not "typically best" candidate for statewide post. For congressional seat in Philly - sure, but statewide - color me skeptical too. IMHO - the best candidate would be someone like Biden: from urban, but preferably not capital area, liberal, but not radical, with strong labor connections, and so on... In short - not too different from ordinary Pennsylvania voter. And in case of Kenyatta there are simply too many differences...

[smoltchanov]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Um... what's the problem with being black, gay, and from Philadelphia? Plenty of minorities get elected and even outperform white candidates....

Well, nothing from my personal view - i have nothing against Blacks or gays. But i doubt that such candidate (i must add "very liberal" too) is the best by strictly "electability" criterion. In Russia, at least, there is a very strong dislike against us, Moscow citizens, in most other areas of country. And to win Democrats need not only "motivate base", and get out Philadephia's vote,  but to attract other people - Independents and their like. I sincerely doubt, that candidate of Kenyatta type is the best by criteria of, say, typical coal miner of SW Pennsylvania - mostly white ethnic people.. Combine that with very strong ideological orientation, which makes attraction of most Indies and Centrists more difficult - and you will get far from the best candidate. Just that...

Vote for the best person regardless of their race, sexuality, or whatever. You may have "nothing against Blacks or gays" but you're discriminating against them (whether you have good intentions or not) by saying they shouldn't be nominated for "electability".

Now if you think Kenyatta is too liberal or has a massive personality issue, that's another thing. But her being black, gay, or from Philadelphia is COMPLETELY irrelevant.

As i said above - you must consider all factors taken together. Yes, i think he is too liberal too. But for some people other factors (including those i mentioned previously) may be even more important. There are simply too many such factors in this case. And that decreases electability (yes, society is not ideal, and many people have prejudices). You know better, then i, that it's rather difficult for most Black candidates to get really BIG white vote in many areas of Deep South (especially - non-metropolitan), and how closely their electoral performance correlates with percentage of Blacks voting, for example. Despite all "assurances" of "nothing racist here..". Don't pretend, that many people in this case (and not only in the South) vote NOT based on race. Substantial number does exactly that, though they will never confess it. Other may simply dislike gays, and, Supreme Court decision notwithstanding, refuse to vote for such candidate. You can't control their behavoir at voting booth, can you? For some he/she may be "too urban slick". And so on. Every candidate has it's weak points, but in this case, IMHO, there are simply too much of them. Nothing more.