2020 State Legislature Results -Post Here

[smoltchanov]

Generally - Biden's win has some features of Pyrrhic victory: only "low hanging fruits" (Colorado and Arizona) in Senate, unexpected losses in House, and horrendous results on state legislative level, where gains were almost exclusively in blue-leaning seats, represented by solidly moderate Republicans like Cloutier and DelCollo in Delaware or Sarah Davis in Texas. And that's almost all, guys. Trump's career may be finished (and that's - good!), but Democrats have nothing to brag about else..

[smoltchanov]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Surely - not financing, as Democratic candidates outraised Republican in many races, that were considered competitive (but, at least some - turned not..). Messaging is far more likely. Especially - concerning police and some other "hot button social" issues.  Not everyone (even among Democrats) subscribes under "bold progressive" platform. That was true on congressional level (NE-02 is the best example, but there are many other), that was even more true on many state legislative races. Plus - not every anti-Trump voter is anti-GOP in general..

[smoltchanov]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Surely - not financing, as Democratic candidates outraised Republican in many races, that were considered competitive (but, at least some - turned not..).

Is this true? My impression is that Republicans were heavily outraised in the US Senate but that grassroots funding didn't really take off at the state representative level while the same organisations that have been backing Republicans and Democrats in them continued to dole out the cash (and Republicans had an advantage with these groups). I'm not too sure about this, tbf.

I said "many", not "all". Of course - there are exceptions (and - lot of them). Nevertheless - it's a fact, that a lot of Democratic state legislative candidates were very well financed, and that it wasn't enough for victory per se..

[smoltchanov]

Massachusetts ticket-splitting:

Democratic State Sen. Anne Gobi was re-elected in the Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire, and Middlesex District, despite the fact that her district was the only one in Mass. to vote (narrowly) for Trump. At the same time she won 52.77% and her opponent, Republican Steve Hall, got 47.11%, the district voted 48.00% for Biden and 49.07% for Trump. Eleven of the twenty-eight towns in the district split their tickets, giving Trump at least a plurality while also voting for Gobi. Gobi got 2,983 more votes than Biden and Trump got 3,211 more votes than Steve Hall. Four years ago, this district voted by a much stronger margin for Trump, but Gobi was re-elected on that occassion too.

But voters in two other state senate districts split their tickets as well, going in the opposite direction. Republican State Sen. Ryan Fattman was re-elected in the Worcester and Norfolk District by a margin of 60.43% to 39.48%, against Democratic challenger Christine Crean. The district voted 51.57% for Biden and 45.83% for Trump. Fattman got 11,842 more votes than Trump and Biden got 12,429 more votes than Crean. Republican State Sen. Patrick O'Connor was re-elected in the Plymouth and Norfolk District by a margin of 54.97% to 44.97%, against Democratic opponent Meg Wheeler. The district voted 61.30% for Biden and 36.45% for Trump. O'Connor got 18,357 more votes than Trump and Biden got 20,070 more votes than Wheeler.
 
Republicans lost one of their four state senators; incumbent Dean Tran lost re-election in the Worcester and Middlesex District by 50.92% to 48.95% at the same time that the district voted for Biden by a margin of 56.87% to 41.24%. The only other Republican state senator, Bruce Tarr, who has been in the Senate for over 25 years, was unopposed (as he usually is). That district, 1st Essex and Middlesex, voted 60.75% for Biden and 36.76% for Trump. Tarr, Fattman, and O'Connor are the only remaining Republican state senators.

There's also a lot of split-ticket voting for Massachusetts House of Representatives. Republicans won only 30 of the 160 seats in the House, and 5 of those 30 Republicans were elected in districts that voted for Trump. Trump's biggest win in any of those 5 was 51.77% to 46.08% in 3rd Hampden District. Trump also won 12th Bristol District, 1st Hampden District, 5th Worcester District, and 18th Worcester District, all by margins of less than 3 percentage points. The other 25 Republicans won election in districts that voted for Biden. Biden's win in these 25 districts was from as narrow as 49.07% to 48.44% in 6th Worcester District to as high as 65.79% to 32.02% in 1st Essex District. Out of the 25 Districts that voted for Biden and Republican for state representative, Biden won by less than 10 percentage points in 8 districts, by 10 to 20 points in 12 districts, by 20 to 30 points in 2 districts, and by over 30 points in 3 districts.

Of the 30 Republicans elected, exactly half of them did not have opponents, including 2 districts that voted for Biden by 30 points or more.

First of all - thanks! It seems to me, that most Massachusetts Republican legislators (AFAIK - they are mostly "right of center - moderate conservative" type, not an extremists, typical for many other states) know how to be sane and not irritate their generally Democratic-leaning constituents. But at the same time - there may be some laziness on part of Democratic candidates: after all Republican party is in dire minority in this state  (and in legislature - too) and "can't do any serious harm" anyway..