Not great for Hood, but reminder that this is SurveyMonkey and it should be noted that the sample is 69% white.
Hmm. Is it reasonable for the electorate to be 40% black? That would make up the difference by itself
Not quite. I would say somewhere between the high 20s to low 30s. For reference, it was estimated to be about 32% in '16 and the same in the '18 Senate races (exit polls) before the runoff.
Now a ~70% white electorate doesn't seem improbable to me, especially if turnout is quite low. But because I'm expecting this election to be higher than usual as far as turnout goes, I would assume the white % would be no higher than 65%. So this probably does inflate Reeves' numbers (and maybe Bryant's popularity) to a degree.
Yeah. I expect Hood to lose by 5 now, so that will be even overperformance of Espy's result. But - he simply can't get percentages of Trumpist white vote (especially in North-East of the state) comparable to his 2015 numbers. They like Trump and slogans like "build the wall and send them home!", and Hood's percentage there will crash... Essentially, Trump set new "standard" there...
