LA-Remington (R, Abraham internal): Tie

[smoltchanov]

Essentially we have simple mathematical equality here: Abraham votes +Rispone votes = JBE votes.

Corrolaries:

1. October election will be close.
2. Run-off between JBE and Abraham is likely.
3. Abraham will be very slightly favored in run-off, because "his" voters (conservative activists) are, generally, more disciplined, and will turn out better, then relatively low-turnout JBE  "base" voters (Blacks).
4. "Moderate Republicans" (who supported JBE against Vitter) are poised to play one of decisive roles again. Will they stick with person (JBE) or party (Republican)?

[smoltchanov]

Once again: I do NOT see Louisianans being that stupid voting out a popular Dem Governor with budget surplus!

JBE is the Dem version of Larry Hogan.

Substantially less popular, then Hogan with his stellar numbers. At the same time - Louisiana is almost as Republican and conservative as Maryland - Democratic and liberal. And far more inflexible to boot. Landrieu was popular as well... until 2014. And - member of famous political dynasty. And ...  so on. And still lost 56-44. Because of exactly one letter...