What if Russia did a full scale invasion of Ukraine?

[smoltchanov]

Say Russia mounts a full scale invasion of Ukraine to annex Russian majority areas of country. What would happen? How would West react?

Protest - first, then grudgingly acquisce. With sanctions, may be, but no more. Look at Abhazia and South Osetia.

[smoltchanov]

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

Well, Donetsk/Luhansk areas are fully Russian-speaking, and most of South-East regions to some degree.

Being Russian speaking doesn't make you Russian, especially not in Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics.

In Baltics, there is clear difference between Russians and Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians. In Ukraine, it's hard to see difference between russians and russian-speaking east ukrainians. But, as ukrainian language is becoming more and more core part of ukrainian identity, i would argue that russian-speaking ukrainians are more Russians than Ukrainians.

A typical Russian misconception. Most Ukrainians I know can barely say ще невмерла, but would be mortally offended to be considered Russian, or otherwise to be associated with that country they passionately hate by now.

No Ukranians i know (and i know a lot of them) hate Russia. Some hate Putin, but at least as many hate Poroshenko.

[smoltchanov]

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

Well, Donetsk/Luhansk areas are fully Russian-speaking, and most of South-East regions to some degree.

Being Russian speaking doesn't make you Russian, especially not in Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics.

In Baltics, there is clear difference between Russians and Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians. In Ukraine, it's hard to see difference between russians and russian-speaking east ukrainians. But, as ukrainian language is becoming more and more core part of ukrainian identity, i would argue that russian-speaking ukrainians are more Russians than Ukrainians.

A typical Russian misconception. Most Ukrainians I know can barely say ще невмерла, but would be mortally offended to be considered Russian, or otherwise to be associated with that country they passionately hate by now.

No Ukranians i know (and i know a lot of them) hate Russia. Some hate Putin, but at least as many hate Poroshenko.

Oh, sure, many dislike or even hate Poroshenko. But there is a difference. Poroshenko a) is their son of a bitch and b) he simply happens to currently be the president of Ukraine. Nobody expects him to be president for long, nor is he integral in any sense to Ukrainian identification. When he is gone (as he is likely to be soon), nobody, except for the three-and-a-half of closest of his closest friends will feel any strong emotions.

In contrast, Russian state and society, as they currently exist, are Putin. There is no other Russia left.

Russian state - yes, society - no. 1/3 of Russians (including myself) strongly dislikes Putin even according to our polls. Thats tens of millions of people. So - there is other Russia. Just - very unorganized..

[smoltchanov]

Russian state - yes, society - no. 1/3 of Russians (including myself) strongly dislikes Putin even according to our polls. Thats tens of millions of people. So - there is other Russia. Just - very unorganized..

Half of that 1/3 are only opposed to Putin because he is insufficiently aggressive. They'd kiss his feet if he were to take Kiev and Tallinn, and would deify him if he were go to Warsaw - and you know that full well. And the remaining 15% - sure, I like you guys, but you are marginal.

So, what?? We are who we are. Even if marginals. And will remain that way.

[smoltchanov]

Russian state - yes, society - no. 1/3 of Russians (including myself) strongly dislikes Putin even according to our polls. Thats tens of millions of people. So - there is other Russia. Just - very unorganized..

Half of that 1/3 are only opposed to Putin because he is insufficiently aggressive. They'd kiss his feet if he were to take Kiev and Tallinn, and would deify him if he were go to Warsaw - and you know that full well. And the remaining 15% - sure, I like you guys, but you are marginal.

So, what?? We are who we are. Even if marginals. And will remain that way.

You are fine. But you are not representative of Russia.

Yes, and no. After all - 15% is many millions of people.

[smoltchanov]

Russian state - yes, society - no. 1/3 of Russians (including myself) strongly dislikes Putin even according to our polls. Thats tens of millions of people. So - there is other Russia. Just - very unorganized..

Half of that 1/3 are only opposed to Putin because he is insufficiently aggressive. They'd kiss his feet if he were to take Kiev and Tallinn, and would deify him if he were go to Warsaw - and you know that full well. And the remaining 15% - sure, I like you guys, but you are marginal.

So, what?? We are who we are. Even if marginals. And will remain that way.

You are fine. But you are not representative of Russia.

Yes, and no. After all - 15% is many millions of people.

The world is big. There are millions of gay philatelist. There are millions of liberal Russians. Alas, as they say, even for most of them their liberalism ends where Ukraine starts.

Ukraine in general - no. Crimea - mostly yes. That's a fact.

[smoltchanov]

Russian state - yes, society - no. 1/3 of Russians (including myself) strongly dislikes Putin even according to our polls. Thats tens of millions of people. So - there is other Russia. Just - very unorganized..

Half of that 1/3 are only opposed to Putin because he is insufficiently aggressive. They'd kiss his feet if he were to take Kiev and Tallinn, and would deify him if he were go to Warsaw - and you know that full well. And the remaining 15% - sure, I like you guys, but you are marginal.

So, what?? We are who we are. Even if marginals. And will remain that way.

You are fine. But you are not representative of Russia.

Yes, and no. After all - 15% is many millions of people.

The world is big. There are millions of gay philatelist. There are millions of liberal Russians. Alas, as they say, even for most of them their liberalism ends where Ukraine starts.

Ukraine in general - no. Crimea - mostly yes. That's a fact.

Both. But the second syndrome is, definitely much more common and acute.

I stick to my statement))))

[smoltchanov]

Russian state - yes, society - no. 1/3 of Russians (including myself) strongly dislikes Putin even according to our polls. Thats tens of millions of people. So - there is other Russia. Just - very unorganized..

Half of that 1/3 are only opposed to Putin because he is insufficiently aggressive. They'd kiss his feet if he were to take Kiev and Tallinn, and would deify him if he were go to Warsaw - and you know that full well. And the remaining 15% - sure, I like you guys, but you are marginal.

So, what?? We are who we are. Even if marginals. And will remain that way.

You are fine. But you are not representative of Russia.

Yes, and no. After all - 15% is many millions of people.

The world is big. There are millions of gay philatelist. There are millions of liberal Russians. Alas, as they say, even for most of them their liberalism ends where Ukraine starts.

Ukraine in general - no. Crimea - mostly yes. That's a fact.

Both. But the second syndrome is, definitely much more common and acute.

I stick to my statement))))

Yeah, you tend to do so.

Absolutely. I am not stubborn, i am very stubborn