What if Russia did a full scale invasion of Ukraine?
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  What if Russia did a full scale invasion of Ukraine?
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Author Topic: What if Russia did a full scale invasion of Ukraine?  (Read 1366 times)
jman123
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« on: December 13, 2018, 11:54:12 AM »

Say Russia mounts a full scale invasion of Ukraine to annex Russian majority areas of country. What would happen? How would West react?
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ag
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« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2018, 12:27:42 PM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.
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Omega21
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2018, 12:34:04 PM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

^^ This.

Russia invading the whole of Ukraine is no more likely than the US invading Venezuela, so yeah, not something we have to think about in the near future.
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ag
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« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2018, 12:36:21 PM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

^^ This.

Russia invading the whole of Ukraine is no more likely than the US invading Venezuela, so yeah, not something we have to think about in the near future.

That means, you believe US invasion of Venezuela is all but imminent.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2018, 01:10:12 PM »

They would conquer it in days. The US and Europe would respond with bluster, Russia would threaten total nuclear annihilation of any countries that oppose them, and they would back off. Russia would then advance towards NATO nations and agree to stop short in a "peace treaty" that recognized their control of Ukraine.

We can't stop Russia or China from expanding in their sphere unless we commit to a likely nuclear WW3, and both Russia and China know what red lines they can't cross in order to maintain that status quo.
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GMantis
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« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2018, 06:51:22 PM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

^^ This.

Russia invading the whole of Ukraine is no more likely than the US invading Venezuela, so yeah, not something we have to think about in the near future.

That means, you believe US invasion of Venezuela is all but imminent.
According to you, a full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine (and not only Ukraine) has been imminent since 2014. In fact, it should have already escalated to WWIII by now...
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kelestian
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« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2018, 07:19:23 PM »

If Putin didn't do it in 2014, why would he do this now?
Unless there will be big political crysis in Ukraine, he wouldn't do it.
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kelestian
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« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2018, 07:20:49 PM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

Well, Donetsk/Luhansk areas are fully Russian-speaking, and most of South-East regions to some degree.
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2018, 07:30:49 PM »

They would conquer it in days. The US and Europe would respond with bluster, Russia would threaten total nuclear annihilation of any countries that oppose them, and they would back off. Russia would then advance towards NATO nations and agree to stop short in a "peace treaty" that recognized their control of Ukraine.

We can't stop Russia or China from expanding in their sphere unless we commit to a likely nuclear WW3, and both Russia and China know what red lines they can't cross in order to maintain that status quo.

Ukraine isn't Russia's 'sphere'.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2018, 07:34:53 PM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

Well, Donetsk/Luhansk areas are fully Russian-speaking, and most of South-East regions to some degree.

Being Russian speaking doesn't make you Russian, especially not in Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #10 on: December 13, 2018, 11:59:11 PM »

At this point, Putin probably has a handshake agreement from Trump to have American troops assisting the Russian troops in an invasion of Ukraine (or any Eastern European NATO nation, such as Poland).
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jfern
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« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2018, 04:17:09 AM »

At this point, Putin probably has a handshake agreement from Trump to have American troops assisting the Russian troops in an invasion of Ukraine (or any Eastern European NATO nation, such as Poland).

LOL, no.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2018, 06:27:24 AM »

Say Russia mounts a full scale invasion of Ukraine to annex Russian majority areas of country. What would happen? How would West react?

Protest - first, then grudgingly acquisce. With sanctions, may be, but no more. Look at Abhazia and South Osetia.
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kelestian
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« Reply #13 on: December 14, 2018, 06:48:55 AM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

Well, Donetsk/Luhansk areas are fully Russian-speaking, and most of South-East regions to some degree.

Being Russian speaking doesn't make you Russian, especially not in Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics.

In Baltics, there is clear difference between Russians and Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians. In Ukraine, it's hard to see difference between russians and russian-speaking east ukrainians. But, as ukrainian language is becoming more and more core part of ukrainian identity, i would argue that russian-speaking ukrainians are more Russians than Ukrainians.

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ag
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« Reply #14 on: December 14, 2018, 12:13:39 PM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

Well, Donetsk/Luhansk areas are fully Russian-speaking, and most of South-East regions to some degree.

Being Russian speaking doesn't make you Russian, especially not in Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics.

In Baltics, there is clear difference between Russians and Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians. In Ukraine, it's hard to see difference between russians and russian-speaking east ukrainians. But, as ukrainian language is becoming more and more core part of ukrainian identity, i would argue that russian-speaking ukrainians are more Russians than Ukrainians.



A typical Russian misconception. Most Ukrainians I know can barely say ще невмерла, but would be mortally offended to be considered Russian, or otherwise to be associated with that country they passionately hate by now.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #15 on: December 14, 2018, 12:17:15 PM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

Well, Donetsk/Luhansk areas are fully Russian-speaking, and most of South-East regions to some degree.

Being Russian speaking doesn't make you Russian, especially not in Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics.

In Baltics, there is clear difference between Russians and Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians. In Ukraine, it's hard to see difference between russians and russian-speaking east ukrainians. But, as ukrainian language is becoming more and more core part of ukrainian identity, i would argue that russian-speaking ukrainians are more Russians than Ukrainians.



A typical Russian misconception. Most Ukrainians I know can barely say ще невмерла, but would be mortally offended to be considered Russian, or otherwise to be associated with that country they passionately hate by now.

No Ukranians i know (and i know a lot of them) hate Russia. Some hate Putin, but at least as many hate Poroshenko.
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ag
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« Reply #16 on: December 14, 2018, 01:11:22 PM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

Well, Donetsk/Luhansk areas are fully Russian-speaking, and most of South-East regions to some degree.

Being Russian speaking doesn't make you Russian, especially not in Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics.

In Baltics, there is clear difference between Russians and Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians. In Ukraine, it's hard to see difference between russians and russian-speaking east ukrainians. But, as ukrainian language is becoming more and more core part of ukrainian identity, i would argue that russian-speaking ukrainians are more Russians than Ukrainians.



A typical Russian misconception. Most Ukrainians I know can barely say ще невмерла, but would be mortally offended to be considered Russian, or otherwise to be associated with that country they passionately hate by now.

No Ukranians i know (and i know a lot of them) hate Russia. Some hate Putin, but at least as many hate Poroshenko.

Oh, sure, many dislike or even hate Poroshenko. But there is a difference. Poroshenko a) is their son of a bitch and b) he simply happens to currently be the president of Ukraine. Nobody expects him to be president for long, nor is he integral in any sense to Ukrainian identification. When he is gone (as he is likely to be soon), nobody, except for the three-and-a-half of closest of his closest friends will feel any strong emotions.

In contrast, Russian state and society, as they currently exist, are Putin. There is no other Russia left.
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ag
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« Reply #17 on: December 14, 2018, 01:17:27 PM »

There is, actually, something very typical here - and not just of the Russians. Englishmen and Spaniards are prone to the same mistake. The English hear Irish and Scottish people speaking English and think of them as just English, ignoring how different they are. Likewise, the Spaniards hear Catalans respond Castillian and think they know whom they are talking to. True, few Irish or Scotsmen can speak anything other than English. And even among the Catalans, especially of an older generation, Castillian Spanish may be their first literary language. But that means very little.
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Computer89
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« Reply #18 on: December 14, 2018, 03:48:50 PM »

At this point, Putin probably has a handshake agreement from Trump to have American troops assisting the Russian troops in an invasion of Ukraine (or any Eastern European NATO nation, such as Poland).

LMAO
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Omega21
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« Reply #19 on: December 14, 2018, 04:30:12 PM »

At this point, Putin probably has a handshake agreement from Trump to have American troops assisting the Russian troops in an invasion of Ukraine (or any Eastern European NATO nation, such as Poland).

LMAO

We're deplorable, we don't understand that Trump is Putin's agent who won because of him.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #20 on: December 15, 2018, 01:08:17 AM »

The only actual Russian-majority area of the country is Crimea, and that has been annexed. You could talk of "Russian-majority" areas, but they, still, have Ukrainian majorities.

Well, Donetsk/Luhansk areas are fully Russian-speaking, and most of South-East regions to some degree.

Being Russian speaking doesn't make you Russian, especially not in Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics.

In Baltics, there is clear difference between Russians and Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians. In Ukraine, it's hard to see difference between russians and russian-speaking east ukrainians. But, as ukrainian language is becoming more and more core part of ukrainian identity, i would argue that russian-speaking ukrainians are more Russians than Ukrainians.



A typical Russian misconception. Most Ukrainians I know can barely say ще невмерла, but would be mortally offended to be considered Russian, or otherwise to be associated with that country they passionately hate by now.

No Ukranians i know (and i know a lot of them) hate Russia. Some hate Putin, but at least as many hate Poroshenko.

Oh, sure, many dislike or even hate Poroshenko. But there is a difference. Poroshenko a) is their son of a bitch and b) he simply happens to currently be the president of Ukraine. Nobody expects him to be president for long, nor is he integral in any sense to Ukrainian identification. When he is gone (as he is likely to be soon), nobody, except for the three-and-a-half of closest of his closest friends will feel any strong emotions.

In contrast, Russian state and society, as they currently exist, are Putin. There is no other Russia left.

Russian state - yes, society - no. 1/3 of Russians (including myself) strongly dislikes Putin even according to our polls. Thats tens of millions of people. So - there is other Russia. Just - very unorganized..
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thumb21
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« Reply #21 on: December 15, 2018, 10:26:04 AM »

If Putin didn't do it in 2014, why would he do this now?
Unless there will be big political crysis in Ukraine, he wouldn't do it.

This.

To answer the question, probably just more sanctions.
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Santander
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« Reply #22 on: December 16, 2018, 01:32:07 PM »

I would support it.
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ag
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« Reply #23 on: December 16, 2018, 02:54:50 PM »


Russian state - yes, society - no. 1/3 of Russians (including myself) strongly dislikes Putin even according to our polls. Thats tens of millions of people. So - there is other Russia. Just - very unorganized..

Half of that 1/3 are only opposed to Putin because he is insufficiently aggressive. They'd kiss his feet if he were to take Kiev and Tallinn, and would deify him if he were go to Warsaw - and you know that full well. And the remaining 15% - sure, I like you guys, but you are marginal.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #24 on: December 17, 2018, 06:09:45 AM »


Russian state - yes, society - no. 1/3 of Russians (including myself) strongly dislikes Putin even according to our polls. Thats tens of millions of people. So - there is other Russia. Just - very unorganized..

Half of that 1/3 are only opposed to Putin because he is insufficiently aggressive. They'd kiss his feet if he were to take Kiev and Tallinn, and would deify him if he were go to Warsaw - and you know that full well. And the remaining 15% - sure, I like you guys, but you are marginal.

So, what?? We are who we are. Even if marginals. And will remain that way.
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