Who would win TX Primary ... Joaquin Castro or O'Rouke? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 07:19:58 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Who would win TX Primary ... Joaquin Castro or O'Rouke? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Who would win TX Primary ... Joaquin Castro or O'Rouke?  (Read 1805 times)
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,394
Russian Federation


« on: February 18, 2017, 01:33:34 AM »

idk but neither have anything close to the appeal they need to in order to win Texas, either of these two winning would move TX to Safe R on the ratings pretty quickly.

+100. Democrats may win a Texas in 2018 only with exceptionaly strong candidate. Neither of two is one of them. In 2024 it may be not so important...
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,394
Russian Federation


« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2017, 03:22:31 AM »

idk but neither have anything close to the appeal they need to in order to win Texas, either of these two winning would move TX to Safe R on the ratings pretty quickly.

+100. Democrats may win a Texas in 2018 only with exceptionaly strong candidate. Neither of two is one of them. In 2024 it may be not so important...

Who is a strong candidate for the Democrats in your view?

No one this year. It will take time to rebuild a Democratic bench there. But best intermediary results could be achieved by moderate wealthy businessman (preferrably - Anglo), critical of Republican extremists (of which there a lot in Texas), but surely not "bold progressive". It's up to state Democratic party to find out whether such person exist. If no - Democratic candidate will almost surely lose even in a wave (i will not say that in 2024, but in 2018 - yes), so it doesn't really matters. Anyone, who will not discredit party and itself...
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,394
Russian Federation


« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2017, 01:38:19 PM »

What % of the Latino vote do you think Castro would receive in the general against Cruz?

IMHO - 70-75%. IIRC Texas Latinos are more conservative then national one. Bush had good Latino's percentages in Texas in 2000 and 2004. But i don't believe in great Latino turnout in midterms.
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,394
Russian Federation


« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2017, 11:04:39 PM »

What % of the Latino vote do you think Castro would receive in the general against Cruz?

IMHO - 70-75%. IIRC Texas Latinos are more conservative then national one. Bush had good Latino's percentages in Texas in 2000 and 2004. But i don't believe in great Latino turnout in midterms.

If Castro gets 75% of the non-white vote... he would be about tied with Cruz (under normal turnout percentages)... if he get 75% of non-white voter & there is increased Latino turnout (due to a popular well know Mexican-American running)... Castro edges out the win.

Is this right?  And if so, do you think Democrats will have the edge in Texas by 2028?

By THAT time - quite likely. But, surely, not in 2018
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 12 queries.