Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[smoltchanov]

Probably DeSoto as well. But - in another direction...

[smoltchanov]

I'm loving analyzing the difference between # of R primary votes and # of D primary votes for Governor. The craziest:

Quitman County
D - 2,295
R - 0

Wilkinson County
D - 3,019
R - 20

Tunica County
D - 1,881
R - 24

Coahoma County
D - 4,251
R - 43

Tallahatchie County
D - 4,200
R - 43

Likely a result of all the down ballot action being on the Dem side, so even registered Republicans vote in the Dem primary.

Naturally. All these counties are 60 - 70% Black..

[smoltchanov]

Again, thanks! I follow races rather closely, but it's more difficult to do, when you are about 7000 miles from place of events)))

[smoltchanov]

So, Gray is campaigning after all)))) In truck driver style, but - still campaigning)))

[smoltchanov]

Looking like Sykes is going to beat Begley. Bummer.

Majority black district? If so - not surprising...

[smoltchanov]

Looking like Sykes is going to beat Begley. Bummer.

Majority black district? If so - not surprising...

Yeah, I think its like 70% black. But it does include some of the liberal white Jackson precincts.

Too high black percentage))) Would district be 58-60% Black - it would be possible for reasonable white candidate to win..

[smoltchanov]

There are a several articles of Robert Gray on the internet.  He is African American and he's 46.

At least some info. Well, in such case he will get decent black vote and almost none - white (what became a typical pattern in Mississippi)

[smoltchanov]

There are a several articles of Robert Gray on the internet.  He is African American and he's 46.

At least some info. Well, in such case he will get decent black vote and almost none - white (what became a typical pattern in Mississippi)

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2015/aug/12/keep-truckin-meet-robert-gray/
http://msbusiness.com/2015/08/david-dallas-mississippi-goes-cray-cray-for-gray/
http://www.overdriveonline.com/owner-operator-robert-gray-wins-democratic-primary-vote-for-mississippi-governor/

Most recent brief interview:
http://www.wapt.com/news/mississippi/robert-gray-running-for-governor/34981892

There are other articles, but they probably don't add anything additional.

Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

A pessimistic article about Democratic chances in state legislative elections in Mississippi:

http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/9d297ba75e5140599e18d09503b6f988/MS--Race-for-the-House

Looking for gespb19 comment and general analysis of situation. How much less white vote can Democrats get? After all - in Presidential elections they ALREADY got slightly over 10% last 2 times. 5%? 2%?.....

P.S. According to this article only Childers has chances to defeat incumbent Republican (and, in general, Republican candidates have much more money at their disposal too) in House, while Republicans can hope to defeat at least some (white, of course) Democrats, and can come close to supermajority (74 seats). For comparison - now they have 67. Here, as elsewhere in Deep South, Democratic party essentially more and more becomes "Black party", and Republican - "White party". A sort of resegregation, only by political membership and ideology, not by "official" civil rights... If that tendency continues - in the next decade (before slow demographic changes will  slowly begin to move situation in opposite direction) the Deep South states can become even more Republican, than now, on legislative level. Only after 2025 we may see change... And, according to some polls, even Hood is only narrowly ahead in AG race (and there is still a month before election). Even if he narrowly prevails - he will no doubt retire in 2019, and Republican will be a favorite for this last Democratic statewide seat in Deep South. Democratic party for vast majority of Southern whites became synonimous with "Obama's party", and that became an extremely heavy burden even for moderate (or even somewhat conservative) Democratic candidates.... Of course - to the lesser extent on state legislative level, then statewide (in Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas there are still some "diehard white Democratic" districts, which continue to elect centrist (usually) or slightly conservative Democrats to legislature), but there are less and less such "untouchable" districts with every next election.

[smoltchanov]

10% is probably the basement, I think even a Bernie Sanders type would do better than Obama (he voted against the Brady Bill 20 years ago!). Statewide and legislative races are another story.

Still - what do you think about that article? Are Democrats REALLY in such big hole in this year legislative elections?

[smoltchanov]

Well in the race that the article is about, I think Childers wins. But the GOP should still retain the chamber, I stand by my prediction that their numbers will be something in the high 60s after the elections in November. The Democrats do have a slim chance at taking back the House (maybe 10%), if everything goes right.

Thanks! I hope to see a detailed list with predictions for specific districts (like those you did in summer) closer to election day...

[smoltchanov]

Guys, with 2 weeks remaining before election, isn't it a good time for final report about state of state legislative races (with predictions)? Like those made by gespb19 sometime in August, if i remember correctly?

[smoltchanov]

I'll come up with something in the next few days and will post it on here.

Thanks in advance!

[smoltchanov]

My election preview: https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/10/22/mississippi-elections-preview/

Excellent! Exactly what i needed. Starting to read in details. Thanks!

P.S. Studied a little. Well, as much as i can deduce from Internet information - generally agree, though i am slightly less bullish on Democratic chances (about 1 seat in Senate, and 2 - in House). But, as i am almost always root for Democrats in states like Mississippi - would like to be too pessimistic and see a better (for Democrats) results. One question - you mentioned some candidates as "conservative Democrats". Am i correct to think that it's mostly on social issues, and less so on economy, transport, education, agriculture and similar issues (as was typical for "old school" Southern populists)?

[smoltchanov]

Yes, more conservative on social issues compared to economy, education, general fiscal policy, etc

That's why they, probably, remain a Democrats. Otherwise they would be non-distinguishable  from typical Republicans (who may be (sometimes) less conservative, then they are, on social issues (at least - relatively well-to-do suburban types), but not on these one...). And i think THAT type of former Democrats already switched completely... Though the last one (like Bounds, Smith, Mettetal, Browning, White) - only recently.

Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

Well, i hoped for Sojourner's defeat, but it seems the last 2 precincts put her over the top by few  votes (the closest race among all, more so then Baria's or Dawkins). If i am not mistaken - Senate will be 33-19, and House - 73-49 Republican. Republicans managed to defeat 3 Democratic incumbents in House - moderates Moak and Lane and somewhat conservative-leaning Eaton (barely), while losing only Mayo's district (it's interesting to know whether J.P. Hughes belongs to moderate or consevative camp by standars of Mississippi Democratic party), successfully defending almost all their gains of 2011. Hood continues to startle, but this is, probably, his last term, and he will retire (and be replaced by Republican) in 2019... Democrats won PSC majority with Cecil Brown, but he isn't young, and so - unlikely to run for something else. So, besides Hood, Democratic statewide bench is, essentially, one person - Brandon Presley...

[smoltchanov]

Out of the 49 House Dems, 10 are white.

Almost the same percentage as in Alabama (is Hughes  in LD-12 black or white, BTW?)... Democratic caucus in Southern states  becomes almost identical with "Black caucus". The same will happen in Louisiana after 2019, when a lot of white incumbents in House will be term-limited and will be replaced either by Republicans or by black Democrats...

[smoltchanov]

Out of the 49 House Dems, 10 are white.

Almost the same percentage as in Alabama (is Hughes  in LD-12 black or white, BTW?)... Democratic caucus in Southern states  becomes almost identical with "Black caucus". The same will happen in Louisiana after 2019, when a lot of white incumbents in House will be term-limited and will be replaced either by Republicans or by black Democrats...

to be clear, it's white Democrats getting replaced by Republicans, almost exclusively. Black districts vote for black Democrats, like they have for fifty years. It's the bulk of white people voting for Republicans instead of Democrats that causes the shift you're talking about

In Louisiana i know at least some white Democrats (including Edwards, but also state Senator Francis Thompson, retiring state Senator Heitmeier and some others) who are elected from black-majority districts. Most of their districts will go to Black Democrats after their retirement, though in Edwards case the district will have a run-off of two white Democrats November 21st. But such districts compose no more then a quarter of white Democratt's districts now. Most other will naturally go Republican after their retirement..

[smoltchanov]

^

That is correct. I'm working on an elections recap and I'll post it here when I finish.

Waiting with interest. One of the questions i would like to get an answer for - why most of highly heralded campaigns of well-known (an, ostensibly, fitting the districts, being an "old school local good boys" with "normal" campaign platform (mixture of some economic populism with social conservatism)) Democratic local officials went so badly? Some even failed to get 40%, and the best result i can remember was 46% in HD-90. Even Childers got only 42%. The one (and only) exception in HD-12 only proves that...

[smoltchanov]

^

That is correct. I'm working on an elections recap and I'll post it here when I finish.

Waiting with interest. One of the questions i would like to get an answer for - why most of highly heralded campaigns of well-known (an, ostensibly, fitting the districts, being an "old school local good boys" with "normal" campaign platform (mixture of some economic populism with social conservatism)) Democratic local officials went so badly? Some even failed to get 40%, and the best result i can remember was 46% in HD-90. Even Childers got only 42%. The one (and only) exception in HD-12 only proves that...

If a place is trending away from a certain party for a long time. Not even candidates closer to the new "political center of that state" can win.

Some people think they lost because "they were too rightwing". I think even though they lost, they probably lost much less than had they ran a CA style campaign with full on Green platform, economic leftism and ultra social liberalism. Lots of bitter progressives play too much into that meme and Wendy Davis being crushed is an example of that hypothesis not working. There is no secret progressive voterbase that will prop up and bring them to victory if only they were more leftwing.

I never suggested running left-wing candidates in such districts. On the contrary - i am a big supporter of the theory that "district rules!", and if to win Democrats must run a solid conservative - let be it! (even more som because republican candidate in such district will be even more conservative in almost all cases). The same - about Republican candidates... The question arose from gespb19 ratings less then 2 weeks ago, where such people as Childers (LD-02), Loden (LD-21) and Cochran (LD-105) were favored to win, while some other (Hughes (LD-12), Cluck (LD-13), Gannon (LD-19), Strachan (LD-46)) were in districts marked "Toss up/ Tilt R". Only Hughes won, all other got about 40% of vote (slightly more or less)......

[smoltchanov]

Jody Steverson is switching:

http://djournal.com/news/steverson-switching-parties-could-give-republicans-super-majority/

He was the most conservative Mississippi House Democrat according to Boris Shor site i frequently use when evaluating ideological orientation of state legislators, so - not too surprizing... Only Wilemon (in state Senate), Bain, and, to some extent, Sullivan have more or less similar ratings...

[smoltchanov]

Wrote this on my phone so probably could be written better but here is my recap on Tuesday's elections.

https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/11/05/recapping-the-mississippi-elections/

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Interesting -do you know of any Democratic defections in the offing over in the Senate?  

Wilemon maybe?

My thought too. With Hale out he is by far the most conservative of Democratic state senators. But on the other hand - he is 70+ and unlikely to seek other office in the future. More likelly - he will simply retire in 2019. If so - he may stay who he always was (a conservative Democrat) next 4 years..

[smoltchanov]

Wrote this on my phone so probably could be written better but here is my recap on Tuesday's elections.

https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/11/05/recapping-the-mississippi-elections/

Thanks! I knew almost alll info mentioned there, but thanks nevertheless. It seems to me that NE Misssissippi is finally shedding it's populist path and becomes solidly conservative not only on social, but on most other issues too. The fact that even Hood couldn't win Lee county, and losses of theoretically strong democratic local officeholders in state legislative races (most of them were exactly in this area) speak for themselves...

P.S. I expect Bain to switch sometime in future (and rather soon). He is very ambitious, comes from white-majority district in Northern Mississippi (where Republicans have considerable success of late), and is rather conservative (the most conservative Democrat in House after Steverson's switch, though, of course not as conservative as Bounds, Mettetal, Shows and Jeff Smith were only recently). He has nothing to gain remaining Democrat: Democrats will be in dire minority in Legislature until 2045 earliest, and he can't win statewide race as a Democrat. The upper limit - Northern PSC seat if Presley will run for something. And as Republican a possibilities are much bigger...

[smoltchanov]

I think this is a Sojourner concession speech?

https://mississippipep.wordpress.com/2015/11/10/sen-melanie-sojourner-releases-statement-on-status-of-district-37-race/

Looks so. If so - excellent! Dearing is an old school conservative Democrat (who was caught unprepared in Republican wave of 2011, IMHO), but even for diehard liberal he is MUCH better then lunatic right-winger Sojourner...

[smoltchanov]

Considering the climate, Mississippi Democrats had a great night, at least in the State Senate.

Yeah, sure. But House is worse. As i already mentioned - they (Democrats) relied on popular local officeholders to get back some seats they lost in 2011 (mostly - in North Mississippi). And our expert gespb19 considered their chances to be pretty good. But, with one exception (i still try to deduce which type of Democrat he is ideologically) - they failed, and rather big ( 37 to 43% of vote)... And Democrats are still in danger of losing Eaton's seat. If so, there will be 74 Republicans in next House (all - white, BTW) and 48 Democrats (by my count - 38 Black and 10 white). Except for some relatively liberal members (like Bob Evans, Kevin Horan and David Baria (who is also endangered in every election) and, may be, Steve Holland and Tommy Reynolds) the moment may come when there will not be any other white Democrats in Mississippi's House (for example - Sullivan may retire, and Bain, Evans and Miles are strong candidates for switching). And Black caucus is, possibly, close to it's upper limit - with as polarized voting as it is in state it may grow by 1-2 next elections, but - hardly more...