Swann V. Altmire + PA U.S House predictions

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In case anyone be interested, PA-4 is a very demographically polarised district.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you have an exact party breakdown there, Al?

As far as party registration goes it's something like 51% Democrat, 39% Republican, 10% Indy. Slightly more Democratic than Pennsylvania as a whole, but not by much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is historically a very Democratic district

Yes, but the boundaries were gerrymandered in 2002 to make Hart safer; it now includes pretty much all of the northern third of Allegheny county (very white collar, very Republican) while losing some working class towns from Westmoreland county, with the effect of shifting the district from being a working class and fundamentally Democratic district (albeit one with affluent and Republican pockets here and there) to a socially polarised marginal.