UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's interesting is that she gets up to this sort of nonsense, but doesn't use the powers that she actually has: if, for instance, she is as concerned about Hizb-ut-Tahrir as implied (and most people, whatever their politics in general or over the Middle East, who saw the footage the other week were disgusted) then the idea of banning them has been under periodic discussion for years and the person who ultimately has the power to actually do it would be... her.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They are twenty points down and an election campaign typically takes between six and eight weeks (in the past they were usually a little shorter). If these rumours are correct, then she is suggesting that it would be a jolly good idea for an already unpopular administration to hold a 'snap' election in early January, as it would surely not be possible to actually campaign throughout the Christmas period, to actually...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Disgusting, but mildly less surprising than it sometimes raining in Britain in November.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, this morning does seem like confirmation of the 'desperate writers put together the final season of a soon-to-be-cancelled television drama serial' thesis.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I feel like it's even more bizarre than Mandelson joining the Cabinet. It'd be like if Major appointed Thatcher in 1996.

Yes, it's much weirder than that. Mandelson was still an active political figure and a high profile one - he was a member of the European Commission - and the surprise about his return was that it was Brown, with whom he had never had an easy relationship, that chose to bring him back.

How often does an ex-PM become a Cabinet minister, let alone one that isn't even in the Commons? I don't think I've heard of something like that anywhere in the world, at least not in the Anglosphere.

The last occasion that the former happened was in 1970 when Heath appointed Alec Douglas-Home as Foreign Secretary. Before then it was when Chamberlain briefly served as Lord President of the Council in Churchill's War Cabinet for a few months before he died in 1940. As to the latter, I'm not honestly sure off the top of my head.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The writers have brought back a character from an earlier season whose storyline always felt underdeveloped and cut a bit short. This is where they get the whole cast together to do the final chorus (Dave's tenor part a special highlight) and give the series a feel-good send off. All that's needed now is the announcement that the new Chancellor is Frank Lampard.

The obvious choice for this government would be Sam Allardyce, surely.

Alas, Big Sam is a Labour Man so unlikely to be available.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That was in 2009, and not unheard of in Israel. Netanyahu was Sharon's chancellor, Rabin was Peres' minister of defence, and then Peres was his foreign secretary.

Yes, in a small country - especially one with a fragmented political landscape - this sort of thing will not be so rare as it's often just a matter of practicalities. Whereas in a large country...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be terrible, truly dreadful, if it were an important post.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She was (very briefly) an education minister.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I presume the question asked is which supermarket do you use for your basics etc. Most people get something at Marks every now and again, but the number who use it as their regular grocery shop would be a) relatively few in number and b) very affluent as while they famously don't mark up absurdly, the quality is a lot higher and this has price implications. The odd low LibDem number there is almost certainly just a sampling artefact and the BES has always had a few issues with those.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, but the London housing market is sui generis. Even with our out of control housing market, there are relatively few towns in England where you can't buy a respectable family home for £250k and many more towns where it will buy you a big house in a nice neighbourhood.

A sizeable detached house in the valley with a big garden sold recently for about £250,000.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the other housing issue being discussed, this is an interesting matter. I'm not opposed to there being a transfer of houses from the privately rented sector to the socially rented sector, but unless you stipulated security of tenancy for existing tenants then you would be asking for trouble. I would further add that if a significant expansion of the socially rented sector via housebuilding were to occur, then it would be essential to build and rent some of those houses for general needs and to not apply the usual points system in allocating them. That would cause annoyance in some left-wing (left-liberal? They all are) activist circles, but anything else would be highly risky both socially and politically. If you want a higher proportion of housing to be in the socially rented sector, then the 'residualization' of the sector since the 1980s would have to be at least partially reversed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'If I had a hammer...'

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's mostly funny because he's so awkward and hesitant using it, as if the concept of a hammer is an alien one. Would be amusing if he were using it 'normally', would not have been amusing if he had used it as instructed with even a slight degree of confidence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course in reality that piece is very much a labour_party_traditionalist.txt sort of choice, and used to be selected by so many Labour politicians and trade unionists on Desert Island Discs back in the old days that it was almost as much of a cliché as the inevitable recording (exactly what of varied) from the Grimethorpe Colliery Band. Starmer is also of the generation who will associate it with Bernstein performing the entire 9th Symphony on top of the ruins of the Berlin Wall.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder which selection he will try to rig for himself using his new post.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know it's the EU anthem, but even in a British context I have to imagine that attempting to make a culture war shibboleth out of "Ode to Joy," one of the most immediately recognizable and universally loved or at least liked pieces of music ever composed, with an extremely widely-known and compelling personal story behind it in the life of its similarly ubiquitous composer, comes across as at least a little bit tacky?

It's main British association is that it gets played at the Proms every year! This really is just end stage brain worms from a certain type of utter lunatic, though the motivation of one Conservative politician who weirdly tweeted about it would probably be more along the lines of 'desperately trying to get selected a new seat, so I must appeal to these lunatics'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know this is at least three tiers of digression from the main topic but the tweet Holden was replying to includes a glaring mistake - the Champions League theme is based on "Zadok the Priest" by Händel, not the Ode to Joy. Speaking of people who have apparently never watched the Proms...

Or the Coronation!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is also the case that a 10pt Labour lead in a GE would result in a substantial parliamentary majority, now that Scotland is not a dead zone and that swings in England are not going to be remotely proportional. Immediate post-2019 GE analysis of what would be required for a Labour majority has no particular connection to reality as it now is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sunak appears to have decided that a diplomatic spat with Greece over the Elgin Marbles will turn everything around: he pulled out of a meeting with Mitsotakis at the last minute because Mitsotakis had made the traditional remarks about the need for the sculptures to return to Athens, as all Greek Prime Ministers do. Making it all the more absurd is the fact that Mitsotakis met with Starmer earlier today.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It sounds like it must have been an aggressive cancer. Poor man.

Anyway, he was a very capable administrative politician, the sort of man that every government needs a few of (and that, frankly, the present government lacks). He will always be remembered for dealing with a nightmare of a situation as Chancellor and for doing so about as well as was possible: recent events have, perhaps, highlighted why this matters. RIP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's up on the stand for two days next week, incidentally. Should be... er... anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Boundary changes are mildly favourable to the Conservatives there and it is plausible that they would have a better chance of somehow clinging on to the seat (or, more plausibly, keeping down the majority) with a candidate other than the now rather polarizing and contentious IDS.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it pretty much a given that the Tories will be completely evicted from Scotland and Wales, as they were in 1997?

Wales is plausible (though not certain) due to boundary changes: the collapse of the LibDem brand and vote in Montgomery (for reasons beyond merely the usual 'Coalition' issues: Lembit Öpik was the last LibDem MP there and, well, my God...) had likely turned that in to a genuinely safe seat, except that the Boundary Commission's insistence on keeping two predominantly rural Powys constituencies despite the numbers means that the county is now paired with a postindustrial area near Wrexham, meaning that in a disaster year it might be vulnerable in an extremely messy way. They could also hold the other Powys-based constituency (which also now extends further into postindustrial territory) on a low share of the poll if they can avoid melting down there too much, so long as the Labour and LibDem votes split well enough to cancel each other out, but that might be asking too much. Majorities elsewhere are all rather ominously low given the circumstances: even the Secretary of State for Wales (David Davies, Monmouth) 'only' has one of about 20pts.

Scotland is also uncertain: all of their Scottish seats are rural constituencies where their main opponent is the SNP, who will also not being doing as well as at the last election. It is somehow at once plausible that Scotland might prove a relative bright spot for the Conservatives and also that they might get wiped out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From a position of pure psephology this particular battleground is a complete mystery, and mysteries are always exciting.