UK Local Elections 2022

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sunderland Labour had a good result in a local by-election recently, the first time that's happened for ages. I would assume a further loss of seats is likely, but not that many this time and they ought to keep their majority. But, yes, the electoral travails of that administration are purely local in character. Some of the scandals have been beyond parody.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can't seem to find those scandals from a google search ?

Oh they aren't corruption scandals, as such. In terms of administrative competence, Sunderland isn't even a particularly badly run council, except to the extent that the present government-imposed financial framework means that all councils are now badly run and can't not be. What I mean is that a lot of quite senior councillors in recent years have been criminals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/cdbeaton/status/1509867494038818848

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There was once a time when this would be a genuine political problem for Labour (who, in opposition, tended to use local government as a redoubt from which to oppose the government at local level), but with local government so emaciated these days it is (if we're being honest) a largely symbolic matter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps all outs every two years would be fair. I don't know, but I think local elections should just be frequent?

If anything the terms for councillors are far too long, as can be noted simply from how frequent resignations are! This is before we consider the democratic problems of lengthy terms, which would be more serious if councils had the power that they historically did (and was an issue then!) even if it's largely a symbolic problem at present.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes but it isn't going to be the case there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that in every single London Mayoral election to feature an incumbent to date, said incumbent has performed well (relative to both their party and the general circumstances of the election) in affluent wards in Inner London and poorly (again relative to etc) in shabbier wards in Outer London. Given that Livingstone, Johnson and Khan are all politicians with rather different images, politics and styles this is suggestive of something structural. Given that the Mayor's only real powers are over strategic planning and a few regulatory functions and that this results in the post becoming a bully pulpit for London it isn't hard to work out the reasons...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Especially if the first results will be them losing control in Sunderland - mainly to local issues but said result will obviously be conflated given it came first.

Though possible it's a long way from being a certain outcome - a lot of wards were tight in all directions last year and the national atmosphere is rather different.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have held Hendon by 8pts - they lost it by that margin a year ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Double blow for Sunderland Tories: they've failed to gain Washington South (which they were intensely targeting and stressed that they were to journalists from national newspapers) and have lost Fullwell to the LibDems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a reason why Labour's current strategy for defeating the Tories in 2024 seems to involve the Lib Dems hoovering up soft Tory votes. These people could quite possibly be persuaded to vote against the Tories but most could never bring themselves to vote Labour.

It's nearly always been the case that the unwinding of any sort of polarisation is good for Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have just held a ward in Dudley (Quarry Bank & Dudley Wood) by 12pts that they lost by 23pts last year. Used to have a massive UKIP vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What matters more from a 'how are they doing?' perspective would be general patterns and vote movement since last year - and this is all very positive from a Labour perspective so far.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The scoreboard method of covering these things is only done out of laziness and convenience anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Word is that Labour has won Barnet and will also win Westminster!

Something to note about Westminster is that while the Conservatives won twice as many seats as Labour last time, they only had a tiny lead in votes: because of population movements since the last re-warding (for the 2002 elections) a serious issue with malapportionment had developed. Westminster has been re-warded for these elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gaining two in Dudley is proportionally equivalent to gaining about five in Wandsworth, given the number of seats being contested.

Part of the issue is that the way the media reports on local elections (essentially from a national perspective: what do these results tell us about how party X or Y is doing now and will do at the next real election) does not align very well with the sort of things they like to highlight in their coverage. Scoreboard changes of councils and councillors are not much use for that given the length of councillors terms in office and the same is true of vote share changes on the last time the seats up were contested.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By the way it's worth noting that Barnet Council has attracted attention for all the wrong reasons for a long time. I suspect that the result there is the delayed punishment of an administration well-overdue a battering but which did not receive one four years ago for other reasons.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The current line the the Tories are doing fine outside of London...

Which, it must be stressed, is a lie. Comparisons with 2021 are really not positive for them at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(and that random Barnsley ward).  But that's far from being the general story in England outside London, even in "Red Wall" type areas.

And notably in every other ward there (including others where they polled well last year) they've fallen back on last year, and often pretty sharply.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Much of the punditry on these results has somehow managed to be even worse than usual.

In part because it's harder. Much of the results are not due to 'Brexit' but wider demographic cleavages in age and geography. But that requires engagement with why, that can't be brushed off with 'elites' or 'wokes' or arising 'red walls'.

It isn't even that: they've not done well even where they're insisting that they have. Labour topped the poll in Grimsby despite being obliterated there last year (miles behind, not a seat won). But, sure, things are going great in The Red Wall!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though a dishonourable mention also to the Labour "insider" who seemed to think Labour's failure to make more progress in places like Bolton is down to "long Corbyn".

Yep, in the pubs of Little Lever and Hulton they think of little else.

(and nothing to do with Labour running one of the most dreadful councils in the country for so long)

Yeah, it's similar to continued bad results in Wirral a few miles away and I'm going to presume Oldham (which is the standout poor result really). There's no need to spin these things when there are plenty of good results on 2021 in such places all over the place! But the Little Lever etc. ward they lost I think the incumbent elected as Labour councillor was running against them as an independent?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People should remember that Labour's slightly underwhelming results in Gtr Manchester this time may be due partly to Andy Burnham not being on another ballot paper, as was the case last year.

Yes - the results there last year were generally better than average as well. A clear coat-tails effect.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What everyone needs to understand is that when media reporting disagrees with what old hands say here, it is the media who are wrong

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour only down one seat on 2018 in Cannock Chase district. If you're aware what things looked like there last year you'll see why this is worth noting...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PC also surging in their stronghold of Gwynedd.

Most seats are either uncontested or functionally so (i.e. hopeless paper candidates or random cranks only) because all opposition organisation has collapsed, so this isn't meaningful. The single Labour seat isn't the same as last time: that was in the village of Bethel but the ward has been merged into a larger one with Y Felinheli, the incumbent stood down and there was no new Labour candidate (but see above). The single Labour seat this time is a new council estate dominated ward in Caernarfon.