How do you see the next British General Election going? Who wins?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

General direction of travel and various other indicators are pretty dire for the government, but not only is it too early to be sure, it's even too early to think about the question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Larger majorities have been cleaned out in one go, and this was when the electorate was significantly less volatile. When only fairly small minorities identify with individual parties and when not even all of those people are unconditionally loyal, the range of possible outcomes is vast. Recently that reality has mostly (though not exclusively) been to Labour's disadvantage, but there's no reason to believe it must always be so.