Scotland/Wales 2007

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The Blaenau Gwent polls have been moved (sort of) to the Blaenau Gwent by-election thread.

Thanks to Harry for posting them

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No suprise; there were some polls earlier in the year with similer numbers (but I think each party was on the other side of the MoE) and neck-and-neck does seem about right.
Historically, support for the SNP tends to decline the closer you get to an actual election (although who benefits has been different in different elections IIRC) although I've always suspected that that has more down to supporters of non-nationalist parties being more likely to vote the closer you get to the real thing, than genuine declines. Could be wrong in general, but that was certainly the case in 2003.

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Just to clear up a potential source of confusion; in 2003 the final result was a lead of about 11pts for Labour, not 14.

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This be interesting: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5142372.stm

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Apparently some LibDem list candidate has essentially claimed that the LibDems don't have a hope in hell of taking Dunfermline again next year.

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Kilmarnock is the most vulnerable. Labour hold a majority of 3.84% over the SNP, but have a raw majority of only 1210 to defend.

In theory it's very vulnerable; but in practice I have a (possibly mistaken) suspicion that it might be harder for the SNP to take than it might first seem; like last time actually. Or maybe not.

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What did for the Tories last time round was some very obvious tactical voting... should be a lot closer this time round (and obviously looking at the Westminster vote here is more meaningless than just about anywhere else).
Should be a Tory seat though

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In theory a three-way race, in practice the blue horse is probably lame. I'm expecting the SNP to take this.

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Neither seat should fall, although it certainly wouldn't be out of the question.

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There was quite a sharp drop in the LibDem vote here in the General Election; I think it had something to do with the local LibDem council being unpopular.

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Welsh Assembly gets certain lawmaking powers (and the possibility of more if Welsh voters want more) today. And a ban on candidates standing for a FPTP seat and a TopUp seat has been imposed IIRC.

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Yeah, their candidate split the Protestant vote on Lewis quite badly IIRC; MacDonald would still have lost (they polled 7% and he lost by 10pts) but if they'd not run a candidate, but it would have been a lot closer.

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Why do you reckon that OCV took from Labour rather than from the SNP (apart from the fact that MacDonald lost badly, I mean)? That strikes me as far from obvious.

Voting patterns in the Western Isles have been sectarian for quite a while; Labour does best on Lewis (where they tie up the playground swings on Sundays and so on), while the SNP do better in the other islands, which are largely Catholic.
If you add up the Labour and OCV votes in 2005 you get 5820; MacDonald polled 5,924 in 2001.

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Stupid. Stupid stupid stupid.
They should maybe start telling people that under the system of election, the vote of chief relevance is the list vote, and that these people were elected because the people of NE Wales elected them. (Maybe make it easier for people to understand that by making the lists not fixed, forcing people to take a look at them...)

The Assembly has 60 seats; 40 are FPTP, 20 are Top-up's; you'd never be able to convince people that the list vote was more important than the other (and things aren't helped by the fact that the quality of list AM's is absolutely atrocious).
Interestingly enough, supporters of Dafydd Wigley (who's running for a list seat in North Wales; he's second on the list IIRC) have been caught encouraging people to vote Plaid on the list, but whoever is best placed to beat Plaid in the various FPTP seats in the area; the worse Plaid does, the better his chances of election.

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75% of the population are on Lewis and Harris. If the SNP's vote came entirely from the other islands, not all of whom are Catholic (and yeah, I know you didn't say that) he'd have to have won the vote of 90% of their population, including foreigners and newborn babies.

I'm only repeating what "everybody knows"; everybody could well be wrong

I'm pretty sure that the SNP does better with Protestants in the Western Isles, than Labour does with Catholics there though.

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I know these Catholics are Jacobites, not Fenians... but I still don't see why they shouldn't be voting Labour. Is there a specific historical reason? (Even if it's as simple as "religion of the 1970-87 SNP MP" or something like that)

I've really no idea; the Western Isles don't get much written about them, and when they do it tends to be quite innacurate (ie; one BBC article said that the Western Isles was the first rural constituency won by an official Labour candidate; the first was actually Barnard Castle, over thirty years before we first took the Western Isles IIRC).

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I think assuming a 10pt swing to the Tories in Carrick, Cumnock & Etc, is stretching things a little bit far...

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Not if you know the area and the recent demographic change, and certainly not if it is an 'indirect' swing.

A 10pt swing is huge, demographic shifts or no demographic shifts. And for it to be an indirect swing, Labour would have to lose something like 20pts...

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That's comparing to local by-elections right? I think in terms of polls it's about half that (which is still less than good o/c).

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Sheriden has won his defamation case.

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Oh yes, that's true. Didn't they all give evidence against him in court?

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Sheridan wants the leadership of the SSP back.

Looks like Civil War...

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That's actually towards the lower limit of estimates I'd heard. Still too much though (it works out at about £55,000 for each candidate) but I suspect most by-elections in the future will have more spent on them

As I've said before, the limit for by-elections is far too high.

What were the Bromley figures?

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The SSP have been known to take votes from both Labour and the SNP.

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The votes that Labour lost to the SSP in 2003 are unlikely to come back to the party, it's where they go that will be interesting.

Well, not at Holyrood level anyway (it's interesting quite how consistently worse Labour does at Holyrood and Westminster levels; can't all be down to turnout).

Most likely would be staying at home, though they might be attracted to a more left-leaning SNP candidate.

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Interesting piece (from http://lukejyoung.blogspot.com/) on the cost of the Blaenau Gwent by-elections...

£112,000 and we still lost... next time let's do it our way

The Electoral Commission has revealed that the Labour Party spent more than £112,000 on June's double by-election in Blaenau Gwent. Compared with Independents Dai Davies and Trish Law, whos campaigns cost under £7,000 each, the party spent nearly £100,000 more of party member's money and lets face it - you could tell.

I supported Owen and John throughout the campaign and was gutted when they didn't win. I am really proud to have worked on the by-election where we were upbeat and fighting on the issues. Local Party members believed that we had chosen extremely capable candidates in Owen and John and we were eager to help them.

Now, some within the party might criticise me for saying this, and they are more than welcome to. I honestly believe that the huge sums of money being thrown at the campaign, actually damaged our chances. Labour's leaflet war, directed by party officials, annoyed thousands of voters. The constant barrage of repetitive phone calls angered many, especially the questions about voting preferences. I personally received at least three phone calls asking if I was going to vote Labour. There seemed to be a distinct lack of joined-up thinking at the top.

Whilst we won back many voters, the majority of people rejected the in-your-face approach.

So let's learn from it. Next time, allow our candidates to be the main focus in people's minds not the never-ending campaign literature. Let's have some joined up thinking at the top of the Party, in fact, let us the local party members run our campaign. We all know that there were many reasons why we lost, despite having fantastic candidates. The campaign was always going to be tough, but matters were not helped by the failures of party officials.

The door-to-door approach worked, the phone calls didn't.

I'm not saying this as an attack on the party, but I want us to be in best fighting shape ready for the Assembly elections in May. I do not want interfering by party hacks to damage our chances again.

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Basically we should allow the local party to choose their own candidate whoever it is and keep door Knocking with face to face contact.

Absolutely

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Re; Robert Sheridan Silk... he should call his new party... Verdigris

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With the exception of an apparent swing from the Tories to the SNP, these numbers look to be about the same as in the last independent poll published.

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Most pundits in Wales are predicting a Labour/LibDem coalition of some sorts, although there's an interesting debate as to who will be First Minister; a programme to be broadcast tonight (I think. Or tomorrow. Or a few hours ago. Not sure) is predicting that the First Minister will be Carwyn Jones, while most other pundits think it'll be Morgan again.
Due to the electoral system and the likelyhood of swings in marginal fptp seats going off in all directions (although Labour are apparently convinced that the swings around Cardiff will be bad) the exact make up of the next Assembly is uncertain. No one is even sure who'll come second...

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An early seat-by-seat prediction...

Clwyd South: Lab hold
Wrexham: Lab gain from FW
Alyn & Deeside: Lab hold
Delyn: Lab hold
Clwyd West: Con gain from Lab
Aberconwy: Tight three way (Lab/Nat/Con) fight here.
Arfon: Tight Lab/Nat fight here. I'll be an optimist and say Lab gain from Plaid
Ynys Môn: as utterly unpredictable (this far out anyway) as always.
Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Plaid hold
Montgomeryshire: LDem hold
Brecon & Radnorshire: LDem hold
Ceredigion: tight Nat/Lib fight here
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr: should be a Plaid hold, but I won't rule out an upset; their AM here is dire.
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire: see Aberconwy I think
Preseli Pembrokeshire: tight Lab/Con fight here.
Llanelli: Lab hold
Gower: Lab hold
Swansea East: Lab hold
Swansea West: Lab hold, half a chance of a LDem upset, but I doubt it.
Neath: Lab hold
Ogmore: Lab hold
Bridgend: Lab hold
Pontypridd: Lab hold
Rhondda: Lab hold
Cynon Valley: Lab hold
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: Lab hold
Caerphilly: Lab hold
Islwyn: Lab hold
Blaenau Gwent: er... depends how Law does in the Assembly between now and May.
Torfaen: Lab hold
Monmouth: Con hold
Newport East: Lab hold
Newport West: Lab hold
Cardiff North: Con gain from Lab
Cardiff Central: LDem hold
Cardiff West: Lab hold
Cardiff South & Penarth: Lab hold
Vale of Glamorgan: Con gain from Lab

Will have a try at the PR seats later...

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As you can see, I'm pretty sure (as of now) that Labour will suffer some nasty swings in more middle class constituencies (and it's hard not to note that we only held Cardiff North and Vale of Glamorgan in the General Election due to the personal votes of two very good M.P's...). The swings elsewhere will be more varied; Labour's vote could well rise in North Wales for example.
And yes... I think the Tories will be leading the opposition in Cardiff Bay come May next year...

This prediction is subject to large changes whenever I feels like it

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Machine politicians generally don't make very good debators