2020 Labour Leadership Election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A surprising development: rather than simply endorse the designated Left candidates as expected, TSSA will be balloting its members on a selected range of options. For Leader, either Starmer or Long Bailey. For Deputy, either Rayner or Allin-Khan. I've no idea what the balloted members are likely to plump for, but Long Bailey would presumably have preferred a straight-up endorsement. But it's even worse news for a certain Large Adult Nephew...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yesterday's "revelation" about RLB has seen certain centrist/Blairite types (including, of course, some who have been extremely vocal about the need to root out AS within the party without fear or favour) indulging in some particularly crude and witless anti-Catholic bigotry.

This really is not at all big or clever. STOP IT NOW.

The worst stuff has come from Paul 'Midlife' Mason, who o/c is neither and even went to an RC school... but does seem to be having a Completely Normal One about his background at present; you also had that bizarre rant about how everyone in his hometown (Leigh) is basically a fascist these days. Odd duck.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not many CLPs have nominated thusfar, but those that have have overwhelmingly gone for Starmer. This isn't fantastic for those candidates reliant on the CLP route for ballot access.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can someone give me a summary of the Deputy Leadership candidates or else link to the comment in this thread where someone already did it?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=350797.msg7096337#msg7096337

I will have to do a little update for Murray and Allin Khan o/c.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

USDAW have nominated: and another Starmer/Rayner double bill. And it makes Starmer the first candidate to reach the ballot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Phillips were to make a big push as a regional candidate, she could potentially pick up the requisite number of CLPs from the Midlands, so long as she put in the effort. Doesn't seem to be the angle she's trying so far though.

Anyway. Another endorsement of note for Starmer...

https://twitter.com/SteveAikenUUP/status/1219319038590976001

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Possibly the slightly more notable thing is that I don't think Nandy has picked up a nomination. The rumour is that she's in with a shot at getting the CWU nomination, but if she doesn't seem like a viable candidate in her own right then there isn't necessarily a good reason for them to waste political capital when they could nominate somebody who might win instead.

She is clearly trying the affiliate route; a bit of a gamble, of course, but rational enough given that a) her name recognition is very low but that b) she has impressed quite a few insiders with her performances so far.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours of an announcement from Phillips at three o clock this afternoon. Anyway, it's fairly clear that she didn't understand the new ballot-access rules when she entered the race (probably she wasn't alone there), and now that reality is dawning is having, at the very least, second thoughts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Phillips has indeed dropped out - my very firm suspicion is that she did not fully understand the new nomination rules when she entered the contest.

Meanwhile, the GMB have endorsed Nandy. This means that she needs just one more affiliate to get on to the ballot, and there's no need for it to be a large one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, scratch that. It's clear that the real reason for the failure of Phillips's candidacy was that she was banking on having a monopoly of #banter and has been thoroughly outmanoeuvred in that critical department:

https://twitter.com/GMB_union/status/1219653661393068032

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How do CLP nominations work anyway? I’m imagining that everyone in a particular CLP goes and sits in a hall and votes with there hands or something - or is it secret ballot or through the branches or what?

Basically, how easy is it for a few local notables to ensure the nomination goes the way they want?

Just an ordinary meeting of the CLP. Of course there isn't uniformity there; some have All Member Meetings (in practice hardly anyone turns up), some just have a meeting of the executive. So the answer is 'very easy'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course right now this issue only is only relevant in 30% of constituencies...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is also the case that at the time the decision was made it was not clear that the situation would be as open as it is. She will have known that the Left cadre would not back her as she is not one of them, and may have concluded that taking them head on - whereas running for Deputy having endorsed their candidate isn't doing that even if she's still running against one of them - would be the end of her career. It's easy to forget, the past few years having been so condensed, that she is a very inexperienced political actor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FBU have nominated Long Bailey and Burgon, meaning that they have both reached the ballot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CLP scores:

Starmer - 57
Long Bailey - 23
Nandy - 14
Thornberry - 4

Rayner - 64
Butler - 14
Burgon - 8
Murray - 8
Allin Khan - 4

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FBU have nominated Long Bailey and Burgon, meaning that they have both reached the ballot.

Why? An unelectable RLB/Burgon Labour Party = another Tory Government &, therefore, Labour won't be in a position to improve pay & conditions for firefighters.

The FBU is part of a block of small Left-controlled unions that presently function as an appendage of Unite as far as Labour Party politics is concerned. Unite have decided that the best way to maintain their present level of influence is to go All In on RLP/Nepos. There's some sign that the block is cracking at the edges (TSSA will be backing Starmer or Long Bailey and Rayner or Allin Khan), but the core will hold together. The FBU, in any case, has a complicated relationship with the party and only re-affiliated after Corbyn's first win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The CWU have nominated Long Bailey and Rayner. This is basically as expected, but is still interesting: confirmation that Burgon has no backing beyond Unite and the small Left unions, indicates that the CWU is not automatically on Unite's side in the forthcoming battle for influence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unlike during the late Blair era, Labour's financial difficulties (elements of which are, well, frankly a little bit eyebrow-raising) have nothing to do with campaign expenditure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean, Labour's campaign for that post last time genuinely ranks amongst its worst ever anywhere.

Former wine critic for The Spectator unless my memory is making up malicious jokes (which is possible).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CLP nominations updates...

Starmer 201
Long Bailey 96
Nandy 40
Thornberry 13

Rayner 200
Butler 49
Burgon 39
Murray 37
Allin-Khan 27

Murray has now made the ballot. Allin-Khan needs six more nominations to do so.

Affiliates

a) Trade Unions

Starmer: Unison, USDAW, Musicians Union, Community
Long Bailey: Unite, CWU, FBU, BFAWU
Nandy: GMB, NUM

Rayner: Unison, GMB, USDAW, CWU, Community, NUM
Burgon: Unite, FBU, BFAWU
Allin-Khan: MU

b) Socialist Societies

Starmer: SERA, SHA, Labour Movement for Europe, Labour Business
Nandy: Chinese for Labour
Not Nominating: Fabian Society, LGBT Labour

Rayner: SHA, Labour Business
Allin-Khan: Labour Campaign for International Development
Butler: Chinese for Labour
Murray: Labour Movement for Europe
Not Nominating: Fabian Society, LGBT Labour

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are certain parallels to the Owen Smith campaign actually: this sense of a candidate almost being frogmarched by actors more powerful than themselves into running the sort of campaign and being the sort of candidate that they clearly would not 'naturally' be, and consequentially often coming across as slightly out of tune, for want of a better way of putting it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you are a good observer of people and don't let your own wishes, biases or fears get in the way, then you can learn an astonishing amount from just talking to people. Focus groups are an attempt to artificially replicate this sort of thing in a secure and controlled environment. In practice, of course, such replication is not very easy at the best of times, and manipulation of the findings is easy and quite possibly routine. You will often notice that the vocabulary and phrasing that comes out in focus group reports does not match well the way that ordinary people often talk. That doesn't make them automatically worthless (because see the first sentence), but it does mean that caution is required, followed by more caution and then a little extra caution on the side.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A classic case of not realising who the relevant audience was at that moment as much as anything else. Though she presumably would not have been thrown so much by polling data as a focus group report: in a Labour Party context they are, of course, very much associated with the late Philip Gould and the mystique surrounding him and his work. Which would have a certain special pull to a 'mainstream' Labour figure of Harman's generation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1227300116937216000

Clown show.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The TSSA has also gone for Starmer, so that's another crack in the Corbyn coalition amongst the unions.

This is after a ballot of members. They have also endorsed Rayner for Deputy. Meanwhile, the JLM (again, after a ballot of members) have endorsed Nandy and Murray.