SurveyUSA in Arkansas!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Arkansas is close... does that actually class as news? The basic political structure of the state means that unless it has a local boy running for President (ie: Bill Clinton) it will almost certainly be winnable for either side...
Arkansas stays NCF

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because of my methodology I have to have Arkansas as NCF.
The poll was pretty bad (though better than the Uni poll... is that difficult?) and can only give a vauge hint as to how the race in AR is shaping up... mind you, with a state as rural as Arkansas is it possible to get a decent poll?
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The only states that even vaugly resemble the Solid South of old, are some of those uber-GOP Western states.
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Something we all tend to do is overestimate the effects of "stratergies". Remember: the US is a Democracy. The people will decide who wins each state... not Karl Rove.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People who described themselves as 'moderates' favored KErry 60-31%

i notice that too, but howcome then Bush is leading in the poll by only 2?

AR-3 is VERY conservative and is the only part of the state where the GOP have a political machine worth bothering with...