Republicans fear Midterm losses-In the House

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25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

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I'm betting we get Nussle's seat in Iowa even if he ends up as governor. Nussle is way too right wing for that district.

Nussle wins that district because he wins Dubuque. Not a lot of Republicans can do that.

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True, although if MN-1 became open it'd be interesting to see what Penny does.
Another district to watch is KY-5; I'm not sure whether he'll retire in 2006 or wait 'til 2008, but either way once that district (rock solid for Rogers) opens up all hell breaks loose.

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Santorum is vunerable (everyone knows that, especially him) but unless Fitzpatrick's voting record is waaaaaay outta step with he's district he should be safe enough.

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25 vunerable seats doesn't mean 25 vunerable incumbents... a lot of old GOP Congressmen in potentially marginal districts are giving serious thought to retiring.

Same things for the Democrats though.  In PA alone, Kanjorski and Murtha are giving serious thought to retiring.

Other than Holden, you guys are maxed out in PA. 

If Kanjorski retires, we have an excellent chance to take down whatever state rep the Democrats put up.  Mayor Barletta, who ran in 2002, lost by 18 points, and could easily get 50% against someone like John Yudichak or Kevin Blaum.

Losing by 18 point is not a very strong showing.

Further proving you don't know much about PA politics.  Kanjorski is the safest Democratic rep outside of Philadelphia, and is wildly popular in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.  Losing by 18 to Kanjorski with the district that he's in is quite an accomplishment.

That race was overshadowed by the whole FBI probe thing though.

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If Murtha goes, PA-12 could very easily go Republican.

The old PA-12, yes, the new one... maybe in a very good year for the GOP nationally, but other than that I wouldn't think so (unless the local Democrats picked an extremely bad candidate).
Interestingly PA-12 has just one whole county. And that county has a small population.

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One race (not yet mentioned) that could be very interesting is WV-2: The Democrats look like they've finally found a strong candidate and a big fundraising race has just started from both camps (this assumes that Capito musing about a Senate suicide run is just an attempt to get extra money, not an attempt to find out just how high turnout can rise in Southern WV when Byrd is a Senate candidate...)

Capito is weakest in the central Mountain (ie: coal) counties and also Kanawha county (her popularity here seems to have slipped quite a bit of late), she's strongest in the western suburbs of Charleston (esp. Putnam county) and also in the Eastern Panhandle (those three counties in the D.C Metro area). The counties between the central mountain counties and the Panhandle tend to be mixed between coal and agriculture and very isolated and somewhat socially conservative. Capito won them last time round 'cos of name recognition, but there's a strong possiblity of Callaghan highlighting her socially liberal (for WV) voting record out there.

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If Murtha goes, PA-12 could very easily go Republican.

It was actually gerrymandered to strengthen other GOP areas.

It is an exceptionally conservative area, especially eastern Westmoreland County.

Socially yes (and not only Westmoreland: IIRC Cambria county, most of which is in the district, is the most Catholic in PA and very high up a U.S list as well) although it's pretty heavily Democratic by registration.
Methinks if the seat opens up, the Democrats better find themselves a Pro Life candidate...

And also an astonishly ugly district: