ARG in West Virginia!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

46-46... advantage Kerry!
Undecideds usually split 75% against the incumbent party... especially in West Virginia.

Looking like '88 all over again...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al... is proably right... if Kerry and Bush are evenly divided in WV at this stage Kerry may have the upper hand... steel workers in the north or the state and the population in the south are the keys to his victory... In fact WV could be a bellweather for this election... who ever wins WV might well win the election, as the national trend might well be in line with the result in WV... but its eight mounths yet...    

If the Byrd-Rahall machine can get enough people out to vote in the Coal District or if the Steelworkers stay angry... Kerry wins.

If this is the case the map'll look a bit like this:

Except that Ohio County will be in red.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

46-46... advantage Kerry!
Undecideds usually split 75% against the incumbent party... especially in West Virginia.

Looking like '88 all over again...

In 2000 the late deciding/undecided broke 2 to 1 for Gore in the last week....

Is that overall or in WV?
As to why "the Other Al" lost WV... it's because he's political advisors told him not to bother with WV as it's only 5 EV's...
Byrd's endorsement came too late...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've said this time and time again, there are no "Steel States".  PA is not a steel producer anymore.  Steel Unions still exist here, but, politically, they are getting as rusty as the factories that haven't been used in 30 years.  PA is begining to evolve beyond steel and this election will reflect that.

Ah... but SW Pennsylvania was built on Steel and I'd guess it'll still have a big emotional pull.
Heavy Industry does that kind of thing a lot... examples: no Coal has been mined in Wigan for a long time... but it's still a coal town. No Steel has been made in Ebbw Vale for over 30 years... but it's still a steel town.
Strange things people.

BTW there still is a steel industry in WV

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you check out the ARG website, it shows that 22% of Democrats are willing to vote for President Bush, and also the Presidents leads among independent voters.

Not a good sign for Kerry at this time--things could change though.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/wv/

WV is such a Democrat state that anyone who is not a Democrat is regarded by a lot of people as a de facto Republican...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Biggest "shock" of the poll: "A total of 76% of likely voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Ralph Nader."

What's good for Kerry is that a higher % of people in the poll voted for Bush in 2000 than the statewide results in 2000