Canada 2011 Predictions... if you dare

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wascana: CON gain from LIB

This one is interesting; Goodale's been around for a long time. I don't see it.

It's not that likely, but then things do look worse for him than they have since 2000; regional subsamples might not be too reliable, but they look really bleak in his part of the world and certain specific elements to the national picture might make it tempting for some of that legion of Dippers for Goodale to just vote NDP. Voters in Saskatchewan aren't all that sentimental about electoral institutions anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With that general pattern, stick Scarborough SW on as well. Not as super-solid as the rest of the Scarborough seats for the Liberals, bad Tory candidate, good NDP candidate and an impressive NDP past.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With that general pattern, stick Scarborough SW on as well. Not as super-solid as the rest of the Scarborough seats for the Liberals, bad Tory candidate, good NDP candidate and an impressive NDP past.

I was going for areas with lots of youngish liberals. I don't think Scarborough SW fits that pattern, does it?

No, but then neither does York South-Weston.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For reference...

Overestimation of the LibDem vote by final poll of each polling company...

MORI: 3.4
YouGov: 4.4
Harris: 3.4
Populus: 3.4
Angus Reid: 5.4
Opinium: 2.4
ComRes: 4.4
ICM: 2.4
TNS: 5.4

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aw, don't be like that.

Actually it was meant (mostly) as a sort of reassurance. It would take either a massive late swing or an even bigger polling industry fyck up than one of the worst in the Anglosphere for quite a while for the NDP not to finish ahead of the Liberals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Canada a good ground game isn't important in some ridings but I'm sure that if the NDP had a better machine in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Toronto Centre (maybe?), or other ridings with significant dense housing filled with minorities they would have done much better in the GTA.

The trouble with Toronto Centre is that it includes Rosedale. And, if we're being honest, that the Liberal candidate was Bob Rae. He fits the seat. *shrugs*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder whether it wasn't a late swing, so much as there all along but that the polling companies failed to pick it up? Look at quite how badly the Liberals did in those affluent suburbs that became their Quebec-substitute during the reign of Johnny Christian. And it's been obvious for ages that they're fycked forever in basically all of South Western Ontario; what's the point of voting Liberal in such places when there's a viable labour party to vote for?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

EPP did not do so well in Toronto...



...or Quebec...