Canada 2011 Predictions... if you dare

[Phony Moderate]

I think the NDP will end up similar to the lid dems and under perform, but still gain a few seats

....

The Lib Dems had a net loss of 5 or 6 seats....

[CatoMinor]

I think the NDP will end up similar to the lid dems and under perform, but still gain a few seats

....

The Lib Dems had a net loss of 5 or 6 seats....

Notice the part after the comma where I said they will gain seats, when I mentioned the Lib Dems I was referring to the sudden surge in the polls, but not doing nearly as well on election night.

[Franzl]

Is there anyone at all at this point that doesn't believe the NDP will at least form the Official Opposition?

[The Vorlon]

National

Conservatives: 39
NDP: 32 (Well Done Jack)
Liberals: 19 (Bye Bye Iggy)
BQ: 5 (Bye Bye Gilles)

Quebec

NDP: 39
BQ: 26
Liberals: 16
Conservatives: 17

Ontario

Conservatives: 42
NDP: 28
Liberals: 23

Tories get more or less same seat total as 2008
Diggers get 85 ish
Grits get 55 ish
Bloq holds on to about 25 ish

If Tories > Dippers + Grits => Tory Minority
If Tories < Dippers + Grits => PM Layton

It will be very close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For reference...

Overestimation of the LibDem vote by final poll of each polling company...

MORI: 3.4
YouGov: 4.4
Harris: 3.4
Populus: 3.4
Angus Reid: 5.4
Opinium: 2.4
ComRes: 4.4
ICM: 2.4
TNS: 5.4

[Хahar 🤔]

Is there anyone at all at this point that doesn't believe the NDP will at least form the Official Opposition?

Our good friend The Sun:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This article was published today.

[Lief 🗽]

For reference...

Overestimation of the LibDem vote by final poll of each polling company...

MORI: 3.4
YouGov: 4.4
Harris: 3.4
Populus: 3.4
Angus Reid: 5.4
Opinium: 2.4
ComRes: 4.4
ICM: 2.4
TNS: 5.4

Aw, don't be like that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aw, don't be like that.

Actually it was meant (mostly) as a sort of reassurance. It would take either a massive late swing or an even bigger polling industry fyck up than one of the worst in the Anglosphere for quite a while for the NDP not to finish ahead of the Liberals.

[Smid]

Inks - Paint but there is an outline map in the gallery to use as an initial template. I have a mate who did a dynamic map of Australian election results, which would look up results in a table and colour the map, but he's not an elections junkie like us, just did it as a personal challenge.

[cinyc]

Inks - Paint but there is an outline map in the gallery to use as an initial template. I have a mate who did a dynamic map of Australian election results, which would look up results in a table and colour the map, but he's not an elections junkie like us, just did it as a personal challenge.

It's fairly easy to download Elections Canada's riding shapefile, add a results column to the underlying spreadsheet and have a GIS program like MapWindow auto-paint the results.  I usually do that with county and sub-county level data for US elections. 

I am not going to try to do this with tonight's Canadian results, since I don't have the time and don't want to have to try to figure out how to auto-translate Elections Canada's results when we won't see them until 10PM.  But the news sites usually do more or less the same thing with their maps, at least in the US.

[MaxQue]

Post 2, Ontario, Quebec, Totals.

Ontario

CON: 54 (+5)
NDP: 26 (+9)
LIB: 25 (-14)
IND: 1 (0)

Ajax—Pickering: LIB
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing: NDP. A 2008 gain. NDP won by 13 over the Liberal incumbent. Going nowhere this year.
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale: CON. Boring conservative non-descript suburbs.
Barrie: CON. Already went there, it is a town stuck in the past and boring suburbs.
Beaches—East York: NDP gain from LIB. Wave will defeat Minna, but that will be close. If not, it should go to the NDP went Minna retires.
Bramalea—Gore—Malton: CON gain from LIB. NDP seems to be surging there, Layton visited it twice, so Liberal vote will be way down. Conservatives will pass in the middle.
Brampton—Springdale: CON gain from LIB. Dhalla scandal will swing enough to the Conservatives.
Brampton West: CON gain from LIB. Won by less than 200 votes last time. Doesn't take much to fall.
Brant: CON. NDP will come short, especially because of the notoriety of the Liberal St. Amand
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound: CON. Greens have a no-body, so, no-brainer.
Burlington: CON. Suburbs. NDP too weak, Liberals too low.
Cambridge: CON. NDP should be close, but, not enough to win.
Carleton—Mississippi Mills: CON. Boring. Once O'Connor retires, perhaps.
Chatham-Kent—Essex: CON. Will be interesting once NDP or Liberal fold.
Davenport: NDP gain from LIB. Another victim of the NDP bump.
Don Valley East: LIB. If Conservatives win there, they would be looking around 180-200 seats.
Don Valley West: CON gain from LIB. Left-wing vote splitting allows the Torie to go through.
Dufferin—Caledon: CON. No. Won't move.
Durham: CON. Bev Oda is safe, even if she seems VERY dumb.
Eglinton—Lawrence: CON gain from LIB. Another victim of left-wing vote split.
Elgin—Middlesex—London: CON. Not moving before the situation is clearer at the left.
Essex: NDP gain from CON. NDP bump will them there.
Etobicoke Centre: LIB. Unspellable Liberal will be saved by incumbency.
Etobicoke—Lakeshore: LIB. Without Ignatieff being the leader, that seat could fall. To check next election.
Etobicoke North: LIB. The safest of the 3 Etobicoke ridings. The other two will fall before this one
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell: CON. I don't see Liberals taking back the French voters.
Guelph: LIB
Haldimand—Norfolk: CON. Finlay is tainted by her husband, but the Liberal fall will save her.
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock: CON. Boring.
Halton: CON. "Cancer is Sexy" won't lose, sadly.
Hamilton Centre: NDP. Wave protect NDP incumbents in left-wing districtsé
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek: NDP. The same.
Hamilton Mountain: NDP. The same, but less solid for NDP.
Huron—Bruce: CON. NDP has a strong candidate and will have a solid 2nd, but, they start from too low, I think.
Kenora: NDP gain from CON.
Kingston and the Islands: NDP gain from LIB Yes. Unban riding, I feel than the surge will be bigger there. A true 3-way race.
Kitchener Centre: CON. Liberals are too weak, now, to win it.
Kitchener—Conestoga: CON. Safe conservative seat
Kitchener—Waterloo: CON. Won by 17 votes last time, but Liberals faded since then.
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex: CON. Rural Ontario.
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington: CON. Scott Reid is very safe.
Leeds—Grenville: CON. Another rural Ontario riding.
London—Fanshawe: NDP. Safe NDP riding.
London North Centre: NDP gain from LIB. Another random urban NDP gain, I think.
London West: CON. Liberals are too low.
Markham—Unionville: LIB. 25% is just too much for the Conservatives to take.
Mississauga—Brampton South: LIB. Too liberal.
Mississauga East—Cooksville: LIB. Too liberal.
Mississauga—Erindale: CON. Liberals won't gain seats in the 905.
Mississauga South: CON gain from LIB. Too tight last time.
Mississauga—Streetsville: LIB. Too liberal.
Nepean—Carleton: CON. Right-wing area. Was liberal in the 90's because of the PC-Reformist split.
Newmarket—Aurora: CON. Outer suburbs.
Niagara Falls: CON. Niagara region is quite Conservative (with the exception of Welland)
Niagara West—Glanbrook: CON. Same.
Nickel Belt: NDP. NDP took the seat with a 20% lead last time. Won't move.
Nipissing—Timiskaming: LIB. That is a Rota seat. Once he retires, who knows?
Northumberland—Quinte West: CON. Rural Ontario.
Oak Ridges—Markham: CON. 2011 will be worse than 2008 for Liberals. So, Torie win.
Oakville: CON. Confortable Torie last time.
Oshawa: CON
Ottawa Centre: NDP. Dewar won by 14 last time.
Ottawa—Orléans: CON. Sorry Hashemite, but Liberals are too weak at the federal level.
Ottawa South: LIB. Public servants don't like Tories.
Ottawa—Vanier: LIB. Same.
Ottawa West—Nepean: CON. John Baird is safe.
Oxford: CON. Less students than the original Oxford, I suppose.
Parkdale—High Park: NDP gain from LIB. Conservatives are irrelevent there. NDP surge should defeat Kennedy.
Parry Sound—Muskoka:  CON. Tony Clement is safe. Liberal are dead there, and it is too much to the south for the NDP.
Perth—Wellington: CON. Rural Ontario.
Peterborough: CON. Bellweather. The weather is blue, so, Del Maestro is safe.
Pickering—Scarborough East: LIB. McTeague won by 17% last time. Incumbency and that should safe him.
Prince Edward—Hastings: CON. Boring rural district.
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke: CON. Voted for Alliance in 2000. Enough said.
Richmond Hill: LIB. Another liberal saved by incumbency and NDP being weak in suburbs.
St. Catharines: CON. Liberals can't take back a seat in those circumstances.
St. Paul's: LIB. Bennett won 51-27 last time and she has national notoriety.
Sarnia—Lambton: CON. Another bellweather. NDP will win it if it win power, but if not, no.
Sault Ste. Marie: NDP. NDP bump will save Martin from the growing Toryism of the area.
Scarborough—Agincourt: LIB
Scarborough Centre: LIB
Scarborough—Guildwood: LIB
Scarborough—Rouge River: LIB. Even if Lee retires, the liberal majority is just too high.
Scarborough Southwest: NDP gain from LIB. Incumbent is only there since last election, NDP is quite strong there and Conservatives will gain votes there. 3-way, won by NDP, why not?
Simcoe—Grey: IND Hold. Guergis will barely win, against the official Conservative.
Simcoe North: CON. Boring rural and small towns district (Orillia, Midland...)
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry: CON. Tory won 57-19 last time.
Sudbury: NDP. Liberal Marleau is out and there will probably be an NDP wave.
Thornhill: CON. Liberals can't take a seat in Toronto suburbs, now.
Thunder Bay—Rainy River: NDP. I don't see a NDPer losing its seat tonight.
Thunder Bay—Superior North: NDP. Same.
Timmins—James Bay: NDP. Angus won 57-22 last time. He is not defeatable for now.
Toronto Centre: LIB. Bob Rae is an a sure seat.
Toronto—Danforth: NDP. Layton won't lose.
Trinity—Spadina: NDP. Liberals won't take an NDP tonight.
Vaughan: CON. A re-run of the by-election, but with a larger victory for Fantino.
Welland: NDP. NDP surge should lock Welland.
Wellington—Halton Hills: CON. Outer suburban seat.
Whitby—Oshawa: CON. Flherty is safe too.
Willowdale: LIB. Hall Findlay won by 16 and there is no Green candidate. Should be enough
Windsor—Tecumseh: NDP. Windsor. Enough said.
Windsor West: NDP. Still Windsor.
York Centre: CON gain for LIB. Liberals are seeming to panic about that seat and Conservatives were quite close last time.
York—Simcoe: CON
York South—Weston: LIB. Will be very close but incumbency and liberal lean of the district should save Tonks.
York West: LIB. Sgro won 59-19 last time.

And, since Gaspesie will be closed when my Quebec prediction will be up, I predict Bloc in that riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

my map is on FB, but apparently I have already made mistakes. I hope I havent broken the law with that comment.

[MaxQue]

Quebec

CON: 6 (-4)
NDP: 48 (+47)
LIB: 3 (-11)
BQ: 17 (-33)
IND: 1 (nc)

Most forecasts are based on maths and local polls, due to the unknown of the size of the NDP wave.

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou: NDP gain from BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue: BQ. No, I don't think NPD will win there. It will be close, and Moore is a great candidate, but Lemay is unbeatable.
Ahuntsic: NDP gain from BQ. Urban poor riding. Liberal "star" candidate was defeated in last municipal elections, I think.
Alfred-Pellan: NDP gain from BQ. NDP has a good base to start with.
Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel: NDP gain from BQ. Near Outaouais and Montreal.
Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour: BQ. Plamondon won't lose. He is there since too long.
Beauce: CON. Bernier isn't going anywhere, sadly. And Beauce would NEVER vote for NDP.
Beauharnois—Salaberry: NDP gain from BQ.
Beauport—Limoilou: NDP gain from CON
Berthier—Maskinongé: BQ. the NDP candidate doesn't really speak French. Not good.
Bourassa: NDP gain from LIB. Just a feeling than Coderre is going down.
Brome—Missisquoi: NDP gain from BQ. Voters doesn't like turncoats, like the BQ candidate (former NDPer).
Brossard—La Prairie: NDP gain from LIB
Chambly—Borduas: NDP gain from BQ. The first NDP riding in Quebec.
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles: NDP gain from CON
Châteauguay—Saint-Constant: NDP gain from BQ
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord: BQ
Compton—Stanstead: NDP gain from BQ
Drummond: NDP gain from BQ. Urban riding
Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine: BQ
Gatineau: NDP gain from BQ. Boivin almost won on 2008, it should be enough in 2011.
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia: BQ
Hochelaga: NDP gain from BQ. Montréal
Honoré-Mercier: NDP gain from LIB.
Hull—Aylmer: NDP gain from LIB. Turmel in Outaouais.
Jeanne-Le Ber: NDP gain from BQ. Urban Montréal.
Joliette: BQ. Close, but Paquette is high-profile and will perhaps replace Duceppe.
Jonquière—Alma: NDP gain from CON. NDP has a star candidate, it will help.
La Pointe-de-l'Île: BQ. It is too nationalist to go NDP, I think.
Lac-Saint-Louis: CON gain from LIB. NDP-LIB split allow Larry Smith to go through.
LaSalle—Émard: NDP gain from LIB
Laurentides—Labelle: NDP gain from BQ. NDP seems to have a real ground play there, from what I saw went I did go through the riding.
Laurier—Sainte-Marie: BQ. Than Duceppe is the party leader will save him.
Laval: NDP gain from BQ. Urban area.
Laval—Les Îles: NDP gain from LIB. There is a big fight with the Greeks there, because the liberals selected Joizil and not Bakopalos. Greek Association called Greeks to not vote Liberal and some liberal organisator called the Greeks fascists for that.
Lévis—Bellechasse: CON. It is a right-wing stronghold.
Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher: NDP gain from BQ. Urban, latte liberal riding.
Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: NDP gain from CON. Last minute win, because of some Bloquistes wanting to get rid of Gourde.
Louis-Hébert: NDP gain from BQ
Louis-Saint-Laurent: NDP gain from CON. Left-wing will coalese to beat Verner.
Manicouagan: NDP gain from BQ. Liberal vote collapse (Forbes' scandal) will raise NDP vote.
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: NDP gain from BQ
Mégantic—L'Érable: CON. Right-wing area.
Montcalm: BQ. That is an hardcore nationalist area.
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup: CON
Montmorency—Charlevoix—Haute-Côte-Nord: BQ. Guimond should be re-elected
Mount Royal: NDP gain on LIB. High-profile relevant people in the riding endorsed the Conservatives and NDP have a strong candidate, they will stuck up in the middle.
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine: NDP gain from LIB. Urban riding.
Outremont: NDP. Mulcair.
Papineau: NDP gain on LIB. French voters despise so much Trudeau than they'll do anything to get rid of it.
Pierrefonds—Dollard: LIB
Pontiac: NDP gain from CON. According to local poll. That prediction is also sold with salt.
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier: IND
Québec: NDP gain from BQ.
Repentigny: BQ. Hardcore nationalist area.
Richmond—Arthabaska: BQ
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques: NDP gain from BQ. Rimouski is the kind of area in which NDP could be popular.
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles: NDP gain from BQ. Too close of Montreal for Montreal.
Rivière-du-Nord: BQ. Hardcore nationalist, again.
Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean: CON. Lebel seems safe.
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie: NDP gain from BQ. Urban Montréal.
Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert: NDP gain from BQ. BQ too weak there to resist NDP.
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: NDP gain from BQ. Same, plus Conservatives are having a good candidate.
Saint-Jean: BQ. Nationalist Richelieu Valley.
Saint-Lambert: NDP gain from BQ. NDP has some strenght there and BQ is not very strong there.
Saint-Laurent—Cartierville: LIB. Dion has a stronghold. Too rich to vote NDP. Too much immigrants to vote BQ. Too much poor to vote Conservative.
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel: LIB. Quebec Italians are still back the Liberals.
Saint-Maurice—Champlain: BQ. Too much nationalist, to the point of being xenophobic, for NDP to be successful.
Shefford: NDP gain from BQ
Sherbrooke: NDP gain from BQ. Urban riding, with many students and a significant English area (or it is in a neighboring riding?).
Terrebonne—Blainville: BQ. Too nationalist, but will be quite close.
Trois-Rivières: NDP gain from BQ. Urban riding.
Vaudreuil-Soulanges: NDP gain from BQ. Layton natal riding. That should have a little effect, in that riding with significant English populations. Never voted for Bloc before 2004.
Verchères—Les Patriotes: NDP gain from BQ. Unbelieveable, but the maths are saying it.
Westmount—Ville-Marie: NDP gain from LIB. Was a good NDP showing in 2008, could be real in 2011.

[MaxQue]

Totals:

CON: 139
NDP: 103
LIB: 45
BQ: 17
IND: 2
GRN: 1

[2952-0-0]

So, who takes the prize?

[MaxQue]

I almost had the good number of New Democrats!

But I underestimated NDP wave in Quebec and the Liberal collape in Toronto.
Some of my calls are pretty bad, like Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

[Хahar 🤔]

I almost had the good number of New Democrats!

But I underestimated NDP wave in Quebec and the Liberal collape in Toronto.
Some of my calls are pretty bad, like Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

You also missed Westmount, of course. Funny one, that.

[Foucaulf]

National

Conservatives: 39 (-0.6 from actual)
NDP: 32 (+1.5 from actual)
Liberals: 19 (+0.1 from actual)
BQ: 5 (-1 from actual)

Quebec

NDP: 39
BQ: 26
Liberals: 16
Conservatives: 17

Ontario

Conservatives: 42
NDP: 28
Liberals: 23

With no predictions of a Tory majority, these are the closest figures I found.

[Smid]

My figures, based on the maps I posted:

Atlantic Canada
13 Conservative (31.5%)
8 NDP (37%)
11 Liberal (28.5%)
(I would have changed the Madawaska - Restigouche result after Hashemite's comment, but since I said I wouldn't change results, I left it and I'm leaving it as I originally called it in those numbers).

Quebec
7 Conservative (14.5%)
44 NDP (42%)
3 Liberal (14.5%)
20 Bloc (26%)
1 Independent

Ontario
59 Conservative (40%)
27 NDP (29%)
20 Liberal (26%)

Manitoba/Saskatchewan
21 Conservative (51%)
5 NDP (28%)
2 Liberal (15.5%)

Alberta
27 Conservative (62.5%)
1 NDP (19%)
0 Liberal (11.25%)

British Columbia
19 Conservative (40%)
15 NDP (36%)
1 Liberal (15%)
1 Green (9%)

Territories
1 Conservative
1 NDP
1 Liberal

National
147 Conservative (35.91%)
101 NDP (32.85%)
38 Liberal (19.82%)
20 Bloc (6.39%)
1 Greens (5.02%)
1 Independent

ACTUAL RESULTS

Atlantic Canada
14 Conservative (37.91%) = (+1, +6.41%)
6 NDP (30.52%) = (-2, -7.46%)
12 Liberal (30.32%) = (+1, +0.84%)

Quebec
6 Conservative (16.52%) = (-1, +2.02%)
58 NDP (42.87%) = (+14, +0.87%)
7 Liberal (14.17%) = (+4, -0.33%)
4 Bloc (23.43%) = (-16, -2.57%)
0 Independent = (-1)

Ontario
73 Conservative (44.4%) = (+14, +4.4%)
22 NDP (25.61%) = (-5, -3.39%)
11 Liberal (25.32%) = (-9, -0.68%)

Manitoba/Saskatchewan
24 Conservative (54.93%) = (+3, +3.93%)
2 NDP (28.99%) = (-3, +0.99%)
2 Liberal (12.76%) = (0, -2.74%)

Alberta
27 Conservative (66.78%) = (0, +5.28%)
1 NDP (16.81%) = (0, -2.19%)
0 Liberal (9.26%) = (0, -1.99%)

British Columbia
21 Conservative (45.54%) = (+2, +5.54%)
12 NDP (32.5%) = (-3, -3.5%)
2 Liberal (13.43%) = (+1, -1.57%)
1 Green (7.7%) = (0, -1.3%)

National
167 Conservative (39.62%) = (+20, +3.71%)
102 NDP (30.62%) = (+1, -2.23%)
34 Liberal (18.91%) = (-4, -0.91%)
4 Bloc (6.05%) = (-16, -0.34%)
1 Green (3.91%) = (0, -1.11%)
0 Independent = (-1)

[The Vorlon]

National

Conservatives: 39 (-0.6 from actual)
NDP: 32 (+1.5 from actual)
Liberals: 19 (+0.1 from actual)
BQ: 5 (-1 from actual)

Quebec

NDP: 39
BQ: 26
Liberals: 16
Conservatives: 17

Ontario

Conservatives: 42
NDP: 28
Liberals: 23

With no predictions of a Tory majority, these are the closest figures I found.

I was ~~surprised~~ by the TOTAL collapse of the Bloq..  I assumed the newness of the NDP to the province versus the established organization strength of the Bloq + PQ would allow the Blow to hold on to 25 ish seats... I was wrong...

There was also a late shift of a couple % in Ontario where the NDP dropped a bit and the Liberals and Tories firmed up a bit.  - This is (essentially) where the Tories picked up an extra 20 seats to get their majority.

The polling was horrid in Canada for this election.  If you tossed out the internet polls and the (unproven) IVR stuff, the traditional telephone based polls all said the Tories were on the bubble for a majority, and the late blip/vote splitting in Ontario put Harper over the top.

[cinyc]

The polling was horrid in Canada for this election.  If you tossed out the internet polls and the (unproven) IVR stuff, the traditional telephone based polls all said the Tories were on the bubble for a majority, and the late blip/vote splitting in Ontario put Harper over the top.

Nanos' Sunday-only sample wasn't too far off:

Conservatives 38.7% (-0.9 from actual result)
NDP 30.5% (-0.1)
Liberals 20.9% (+2.0)
Bloc 5.0% (-1.0)
Greens 3.7% (-0.2)
Other 1.3% (+0.3)

[minionofmidas]

I was ~~surprised~~ by the TOTAL collapse of the Bloq..  I assumed the newness of the NDP to the province versus the established organization strength of the Bloq + PQ would allow the Blow to hold on to 25 ish seats... I was wrong...

The projected NDP vote gains were beyond the point where such considerations tend to be valid. At these kind of figures, much of that established organization strength got out the vote for the NDP or not at all, and anyways voted NDP.

[Lief 🗽]

Hopefully the weird meme that ground game is important in a giant wave election dies now. Giant wave elections are the type where one's organizational strength is least important.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That depends on the area largely. The Democrats won lots of seats in 2008 for example that they could've never won without Obama's strong organization.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It depends on what kind of demographic you're banking on and the electoral system. With unreliable inner-city, minority voters a GOTV machine is absolutely crucial even in a wave election when you're dealing with big electoral targets.

In Canada a good ground game isn't important in some ridings but I'm sure that if the NDP had a better machine in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Toronto Centre (maybe?), or other ridings with significant dense housing filled with minorities they would have done much better in the GTA.