Final UK 2010 Poll

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1. I will be voting for the Labour Party.

2. Labour will almost certainly be in the high twenties and the Conservatives will poll over 30%. Beyond that... you know, I don't actually know.

3. The most likely outcome (by far) is Tory, Labour, LibDem. In that order. I had for a long time expected a narrow (but workable) majority for the Tories, but the apparent movement of swing voters to the LibDems has thrown confusion on everything. What happens in a hung parliament depends on how well hung that parliament is, but you should all note that the constitution and structure of the Labour Party (it is essentially an associational society than runs candidates in elections and not a political party in the sense that the other parties, big and small, are. In other words, The Rules matter a lot) could wreck quite a few schemes. I expect David Cameron to be the next Prime Minister, though I'm not looking forward to the prospect.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please do explain The Rules, Al.

That would take far too long

But what I was thinking of (mostly, anyway) is the rules for electing a Leader. The process takes quite a while.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, then, explain that part of The Rules.

The essential point is that once a vacancy is announced, the process for replacing the Leader begins pretty much automatically; the NEC has to meet to decide a timetable, after which nominations have to be completed, while a fairly long period between nominations and the Special Conference is needed because fo the way the voting works. Which means that any party that wants to deal with Labour but not Labour led by Brown would have to wait for quite a while for a new Leader to be elected with no way of being sure that the new Leader is someone they'd like to work with.
I'm pretty sure that a coalition might also have to be approved through formal procedures, though I'm not entirely sure about that.