Orange County, California: Rise and Fall (?) of a Conservative Bastion (user search)
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  Orange County, California: Rise and Fall (?) of a Conservative Bastion (search mode)
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Author Topic: Orange County, California: Rise and Fall (?) of a Conservative Bastion  (Read 12101 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,841
United Kingdom


« on: December 10, 2009, 07:07:28 PM »

I'd be careful about assuming inevitability over such things. There were factors at work in outer metropolitan areas that benefited Obama greatly that won't be around in 2010 - or, if the are, not in a way likely to benefit him.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,841
United Kingdom


« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2009, 11:17:15 PM »

I'd be careful about assuming inevitability over such things.

The electorate is getting browner with every passing year- not only because of minority growth, but because some white Republicans are leaving for places like Nampa, Idaho and Provo, Utah. I don't think this trend is going to reverse itself anytime soon.

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

If all remains equal, that's probably true. But as all never remains equal over a period of that length, I don't think 'inevitable' is justified. Possible, yes. An argument can be made for probable, but inevitable is asking too much.
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