Orange County, California: Rise and Fall (?) of a Conservative Bastion

[Rob]

It had been the commandment to Americans after World War II to go forth and multiply. Orange County listened, and exploded. The government said to fight Communism. Orange County listened, and went berserk.- Rick Perlstein, Before the Storm

What can I say about Orange County? It's the fifth most-populous in the nation, with 3 million people. It's the home of Disneyland and John Wayne Airport. It was the home base of Richard Nixon, Walt Disney, and noted fascist John Schmitz, Republican congressman who was expelled from the John Birch Society for "extremism." It's the OC, and it's crazy as hell.

The seeds were sown long before Orange became the epitome of suburban sprawl. One of the men who engineered the county's secession from Los Angeles in 1889 was a Confederate veteran and ex-Klansman, Henry Head. In the 1920s, when only ~60,000 people lived there, this then-rural, white Protestant enclave was swept by the "new" Klan; city signs outside Anaheim met visitors with "KIGY" (Klansmen I Greet You).

From 1940 to 1970, the OC's population went from 130,000 to 1.4 million, as it was swarmed by affluent WASPs fleeing the liberal cities and the frigid Midwest. This is when Orange really acquired its reputation. The county was always conservative- Franklin Roosevelt, in the Depression years of 1932 and 1936, remains the only Democrat ever to win here- but these new arrivals were often proud early adopters of extremist doctrine. And they saw no contradiction between their ferocious hatred for taxes and their equally ferocious support for massive "defense" spending in their county.

In the early 1960s, the John Birch Society, the Minutemen, and the Christian Anti-Communism Crusade ruled the OC. In the 1964 Republican primary, Barry Goldwater lost the rest of the state to Nelson Rockefeller, but his smashing margin in Orange gave him all of California's delegates- and the Republican nomination. He won 56 percent against LBJ in the general election, and later joked that he "carried six states and Orange County."

As recently as 2004, George W. Bush won 60 percent here, and his popular-vote margin was his biggest in the nation (although not so impressive compared to his daddy's 1988 showing, when he racked up 68 percent). Yet...

Cruising through the county on a summer Sunday last year, Barack Obama picked up a cool $1.2 million. In November, a place that fancies itself "the reddest county in America" gave the Democratic nominee for president nearly 48 percent of the vote. - Newsweek magazine

Obama's 48 percent was the best showing for a Democrat since 1936. And that's been coming for awhile. Orange used to be overwhelmingly WASP, but it's now 33 percent Latino, 16 percent Asian, and 2 percent black. The housing collapse didn't do the GOP any favors, either. And Orange Countians may have been fanatical Commie-haters ("suburban warriors"), but they don't seem so interested in fighting abortion and gay rights.

That's not to say the old OC we all know and "love" is completely gone, though. Megachurches like Rick Warren's command many thousands of votes, and "Birther queen" Orly Taitz calls Orange County home.

Still, it's only a matter of time before the county falls to the "Democrat Party." And when it does- when this ultimate symbol of gonzo conservatism votes for a socialist!- I'm going to laugh and take a shot. Or three.

When will it happen?

[Alexander Hamilton]

When Orange goes Democrat, Los Angeles goes Republican.

[RI]

If Obama wins by a similar or larger margin than in 2008, Orange County will likely go his way.

[Alexander Hamilton]

If Obama wins by a similar or larger margin than in 2008, Orange County will likely go his way.

No.

[RI]

If Obama wins by a similar or larger margin than in 2008, Orange County will likely go his way.

No.

Why not? Orange County will only become more Hispanic between 2008 and 2012, and McCain only won the county by 2.56%. Any national increase in support for Obama coupled with the increase in minorities will certainly lead to the county flipping even if only narrowly, especially if the Republicans nominate a strong social conservative like Huckabee, Santorum, or Palin who would be massacred in many suburbs. If support for Obama is at a level similar to 2008, the increased hispanicity could very well change the result. Obviously, if Obama is more unpopular in 2012 than in 2008, he will not win the OC.

[Alexander Hamilton]

If Obama wins by a similar or larger margin than in 2008, Orange County will likely go his way.

No.

Why not? Orange County will only become more Hispanic between 2008 and 2012, and McCain only won the county by 2.56%. Any national increase in support for Obama coupled with the increase in minorities will certainly lead to the county flipping even if only narrowly, especially if the Republicans nominate a strong social conservative like Huckabee, Santorum, or Palin who would be massacred in many suburbs. If support for Obama is at a level similar to 2008, the increased hispanicity could very well change the result. Obviously, if Obama is more unpopular in 2012 than in 2008, he will not win the OC.

Republican turn out will be higher. No one showed up to vote for McCain, especially in California. Many Republicans in Orange voted for Obama because they did not trust McCain/Palin. They are conservative pro-business and suburban Republicans. They would be more likely to swing to someone like Mitt Romney in 2012. Also, Orange County is 2008 can basically be considered a fluke, much as Indiana was. McCain accepted public funding, so he neglected Orange County and took IN for granted. A real Republican cnadidate will always go to OC. Plus, Hispanics will not be so Democratic in 2012.

[CatoMinor]

If Obama wins by a similar or larger margin than in 2008, Orange County will likely go his way.

No.

[Sbane]

I think the housing crisis inflated Obama's numbers in inland parts of southern california( basically half of OC and all of the inland empire). That being said, Obama winning the 48th must certainly cause some concerns for Republicans. If they nominate someone like a Palin, Huckabee or even Gingrich they may lose OC. If they nominate Romney or Pawlenty they will probably see OC trending towards them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd be careful about assuming inevitability over such things. There were factors at work in outer metropolitan areas that benefited Obama greatly that won't be around in 2010 - or, if the are, not in a way likely to benefit him.

[Sam Spade]

As Torie would probably point out if he read this thread, remember what happened in Orange County during the 1970s.  Not that something similar will happen, oc.

[Rob]

I'd be careful about assuming inevitability over such things.

The electorate is getting browner with every passing year- not only because of minority growth, but because some white Republicans are leaving for places like Nampa, Idaho and Provo, Utah. I don't think this trend is going to reverse itself anytime soon.

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

[Alexander Hamilton]

I'd be careful about assuming inevitability over such things.

The electorate is getting browner with every passing year- not only because of minority growth, but because some white Republicans are leaving for places like Nampa, Idaho and Provo, Utah. I don't think this trend is going to reverse itself anytime soon.

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

No.

[Rob]

We're not talking about Bakersfield, buddy.

[Alexander Hamilton]

We're not talking about Bakersfield, buddy.

I spend more time in Orange County than I do in Bakersfield these days.

[Rob]

And...?

[Alexander Hamilton]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

[Rob]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

[Alexander Hamilton]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

[War on Want]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

[Alexander Hamilton]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

[Sbane]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

Orange County did not have depressed turnout in this election so your turnout hypothesis is wrong. You are right about the the housing crisis, but let's not overstate it here. Obama did very well in places that weren't as impacted by the crisis. Republicans are quickly losing ground among the educated middle class and if that trend continues OC will fall into democratic hands. In southern California, the places Republicans will rebound in are the inland areas.

[Sbane]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

What is this based on?

[Alexander Hamilton]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

Orange County did not have depressed turnout in this election so your turnout hypothesis is wrong. You are right about the the housing crisis, but let's not overstate it here. Obama did very well in places that weren't as impacted by the crisis. Republicans are quickly losing ground among the educated middle class and if that trend continues OC will fall into democratic hands. In southern California, the places Republicans will rebound in are the inland areas.

Depressed Republican turn out.

[Alexander Hamilton]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

What is this based on?

Based on trends, demographics, the fact that Jim Costa can't even visit small farm towns anymore, and an overall GOP rebound in CA and nationwide.

[Sbane]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

Orange County did not have depressed turnout in this election so your turnout hypothesis is wrong. You are right about the the housing crisis, but let's not overstate it here. Obama did very well in places that weren't as impacted by the crisis. Republicans are quickly losing ground among the educated middle class and if that trend continues OC will fall into democratic hands. In southern California, the places Republicans will rebound in are the inland areas.

Depressed Republican turn out.

And what is this based upon?