Scottish Independence referendum, 2014

[ingemann]

While I'm not Scottish, I must say when I look at UK, that there seem to be little reason for the Scots to keep the union, in fact I would go so far and say there are no reason to stay. All the benefit from being a unified state with UK the Scots would get through EU or even EFTA. So if I lived in Scotland, I would vote yes.

[ingemann]

I've yet to hear an argument in favor of "Yes" besides "RAR RAR NATIONALISM!"

I think nationalism are more than enough reason to vote yes. In fact I woulkd say the treatment of Scotland under the Thatcher government would be more than enough reason for the Scottish to ask themselves, why they should share a state with people who clearly don't care about them.

But if we have to look at it cynical, most of the British oil lies in Scottish territorial waters.

[ingemann]

Krugman is not a fan of Scottish independence, or at least not the Scottish "independence" that would seek to keep the pound and thereby have no say in its monetary policy:

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Yeah, yeah, NYT paywall.  These two grafs say most of what needs to be said.

Scotland are going to be have a significant surplus on the BOP, so I don't see why this will be a major problem for them. These things tend to be a problem if you have BOP deficit.

[ingemann]

I'm conflicted.  As an American I worry what independence means for the military capability of our most steadfast ally.  I frankly think the rest of the Union would be strengthened economically without Scotland.  On the other hand, I fully support self determination, devolution and question the legitimacy of the Union in the first place.  Were I a Scot, I would support a Republic.

Voted yes in the poll.

Yes clearly (sarcasm).

Scotland are right now a major reason the British BOP doesn't look worse than it does, so no the British economy will be weaken by losing Scotland.

[ingemann]

I'm conflicted.  As an American I worry what independence means for the military capability of our most steadfast ally.  I frankly think the rest of the Union would be strengthened economically without Scotland. On the other hand, I fully support self determination, devolution and question the legitimacy of the Union in the first place.  Were I a Scot, I would support a Republic.

Voted yes in the poll.

Yes clearly (sarcasm).

Scotland are right now a major reason the British BOP doesn't look worse than it does, so no the British economy will be weaken by losing Scotland.

Somewhat surprising given that median earnings are quite a bit lower in Scotland than in England (something like 20 vs 25 K).

Seeing that those thing have nothing to do with the BOP (which are solely based on import and export), it's not really surprising. The reason that Sotland are a net gain for the British BOP are quite simple, most of the British oil production lies in Scottish territorial waters, and while UK no more produce more oil than they consume, it still have great effect on lowering the import.