NY-09, Special Election Thread

[NY Jew]

These rabbis "forbidding" voting for candidates need to lose their tax-exempt status pronto. If these were Christian pastors, it would be a huge scandal.

the way they did it was 100% within the IRS code.
so tough luck and I hope you have a great night tomorrow night because I will.

[NY Jew]

my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.

Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.

are they also spinning this? (or are some apologies in order)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/special-elections-reveal-a-fickle-electorate/2011/09/12/gIQAFbHNNK_blog.html

(Democrats are already blaming New York Democratic nominee David Weprin’s vote for same-sex marriage from when he was in the state Assembly for alienating Jewish voters.)

[NY Jew]

my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.

Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.

are they also spinning this? (or are some apologies in order)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/special-elections-reveal-a-fickle-electorate/2011/09/12/gIQAFbHNNK_blog.html

(Democrats are already blaming New York Democratic nominee David Weprin’s vote for same-sex marriage from when he was in the state Assembly for alienating Jewish voters.)

Actually the way I read the article the leitmotif was the Dem national malaise and erosion, and that the Dems want to spin that macro away with the micro of blaming it all on Welprin's gay marriage thing.  While you may be right that the gay thing was the straw that broke Welprin's back (I have no idea either way), your link actually undermines your case. You need to find stuff that spins it your way - not the opposite, if you are adducing it as evidentially support for your point of view. 

except when was the last time the democrats ever tried to use a spin on a platform their against.  There only saying that because anyone in the district who's eyes are open clearly knows it's true.
as opposed to the usual garbage (it was a lousy candidate, he was uninspiring, he wasn't liberal enough and lost his base ext.)

  As a side point Koch's Obama message on Israel thing has a slight twist in certain more modern parts of the Orthodox community to if he betrayed us on marriage (and couldn't stand up for what (many people foolishly think he is actually against gay marriage but he is a political prostitute like Sheldon Silver is (if they knew the truth he would be doing even worse)) he believes in and voted for marriage despite he knows it's wrong) and went with the liberal democrat party line how can we trust him not to betray our safety in Israel (or stand up to Obama) and go with the liberal democrat party line.

[NY Jew]

the way they did it was 100% within the IRS code.
so tough luck and I hope you have a great night tomorrow night because I will.

Why? Are you taking your hand to a dinner?

though I probably don't want to know what this means.

[NY Jew]

this is now right wing spin to (it's obvious to anyone who even glances at the jewish papers )
http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/13/jewish-voters-tell-david-weprin-where-to-shove-his-yarmulke/

[NY Jew]

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/102996/Op-Ed%3A-Why-Bob-Turner-Needs-To-Be-Your-Choice-Today.html

[NY Jew]

from the largest Orthodox paper todays edition
http://www.hamodia.com/digitaledition.cfm?docid=fd88eade5b1a47698f86ee741ef5da94

and read this interview with Weprin on page 15 (and tell me marriage wasn't the big issue)
http://www.hamodia.com/digitaledition.cfm?docid=4224c51b74ef4a0aa0a7e453049c9e02

[NY Jew]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/277046/marriage-and-remarkable-turner-surprise-kathryn-jean-lopez

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/103093/YWN-MAILBAG%3A-Only-A-Few-Hours-Left-For-NY-9.html

anyone still think this has nothing to do with marriage.

[NY Jew]

Heavy Jewish turnout according to Fox.

marriage protest vote

[NY Jew]

Yes, Turner has won. Queens has only about 25 precincts that McCain carried, and the Brooklyn portion is very Pubbie. It's totally over. And Turner will end up with a much more GOP district next time, because thanks to the VRA, most of it will be in Brooklyn. Yes Brooklyn. Trust me. . Weiner really F the Dems doing what he did at redistricting time. It should be at least a 10% margin, maybe more. It's a blowout. I wonder what repercussions it will have?






It depends on how well Turner does in Queens.  You can say Brooklyn was do to the Orthodox angry on same sex marriage and support for Israel (for some).  Queens in another story.

large Orthodox Population in Kew Garden Hills, Hilcreast, parts of Forrest hills and Kew Gardens.

great night at the victory center (just for the record there didn't seem to be any Wasps there.)

[NY Jew]

If Weprin loses, it's looking like a Massachusetts repeat: another Democrat who assumes it's just "in the bag" because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, and just sleeps around in his campaign office all day expecting a good race.  It's also no help that the voters didn't get to vote in primaries for this one.

fool it was the fact that Weprin lost many of his otherwise bases votes over marriage.

[NY Jew]

marriage wins this election

http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/2011/09/david_weprin_loses.php

[NY Jew]

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

this was won by Obama in the non Orthodox white areas (not enough to win even if Orthodox support was at 50% Weprin would have won 90% of the Orthodox vote if not for his social agenda)

[NY Jew]

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

Yes, this gay marriage thing was way overblown due to one of our posters who really cares about that issue. Sure it may have cost Welprin a couple of points. I think the Jews in NYC in this CD are more concerned about other Obama policies (think Middle East, Muslims, etc.), along with the economy like everyone else.

there is no way in the world Weprin would have lost the Orthodox vote (most likely would have gotten in the 90% range) much less get clobbered at what I heard from a reliable source went around 85% in some places (ED's).

[NY Jew]

if anyone was wondering the true reason why Koch endorse Turner it was to try and make sure this wasn't a public referendum on gay marriage (which it clearly was is certain parts of it (that brings in thousands of votes))

[NY Jew]

Did none of you read that article that Lunar posted that described how poorly Democrats did among Jews in Brooklyn in 2010? This kind of a shift was bound to happen here at some point, the national climate and a lackluster campaign just brought it to the forefront quicker.

Keep in my mind that I've been arguing on DKE that the defeats in NV-2 and NY-9 are largely due to Obama's unpopularity and the poor economy with attention being deflected away from entitlements.

have you ever spoken to the jews in Brooklyn this was solely due to the marriage vote. (many of the Israel voters (keep in mind many people don't see any difference between Turner and Weprin on that subject ) were to PC or afraid to say marriage redefinition but that's not what I heard when people heard the results)

[NY Jew]

PVI is only a measurement of the Presidential numbers over two elections.

I'm aware of this. One decent answer was given above, but I'll rephrase the question. Why do you think that such a strong Democrat district would be voting as close to the middle as it is in the last few elections?

What is happening on the ground?

Is everybody in agreement that its an identity thing. Its expected to be a registered Dem in that area, but only after that you vote what makes sense to you? Leading to the large disparity?

The Orthodox Jewish political establishment (who were largely missing from this race) recommends everyone register democrat to have a say in local elections

[NY Jew]

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.

Orthodox Jews are probably the fastest growing natural demographic in the country.
9% of all jew in Miami were Orthodox in 2004
(Orthodox households are much larger so this lessens there numbers)

[NY Jew]

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?

all from 2004 Miami Jewish Study
39.7% of Orthodox Jews have lived in Miami for more then 20 years, 60.4% for Conservative Jews, 69.8 for Reform Jews, 63.8 for Just Jewish.

Jewish Identification
number of people in Households
1 2 3 4 5 6+ 4+ Average 1 Sample Size Number of Households
                    1 person    2      3     4     5     6+    4+   Avg num                                         
Orthodox        26.0% 34.5 11.3  9.9  10.6 7.7 28.2% 2.8001
Conservative  32.1% 37.1 12.7 10.1 6.2  1.8  18.1% 2.2662
Reform            32.3% 39.7 11.5 11.0 4.1  1.4  16.5% 2.1967
Just Jewish     35.6% 38.4 12.8  8.1  4.5  0.6  13.2%  2.0972

                                    Orthodox Conservative Reform  just Jewish
Household with Children 34.9%          22.0%     20.7%   17.3%

under the age of 35
Orthodox     16.7%
Conservative 11.5%
Reform 8.2%
Just Jewish 11.4%
All 11.2%

[NY Jew]

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?

first of all there are many Orthodox strongholds in queens
second there was a very strong anti Obama sentiment in this district (both Jewish (not just Orthodox) and Catholic neighborhoods) but it would never have materialized in to a win if Weprin would have a decent social record because then he wouldn't have drove his base in to Turner's hand.

[NY Jew]

Historically, Dem politician after politician has been pretty crappy towards Israel yet the Jewish voters don't ditch. Historically Dem politician after politician have taken very socially liberal positions and yet Jewish voters don't ditch.

1. Orthodox Jews (Russian Jews are also not but there in a category to themselves) are not like other Jews they have been swing voters for years (Orthodox Jews voted for Reagan, and Giuliani, and abandoned Solarz over social issues, it gets even more glaring in the past 10 years)

2. Obama is widely considered in all non liberal jewish circles (Orthodox, and Russians plus a little bit of the second generation immigrants still alive ) to be a big anti semite (I don't want to turn this into a discussion about Israel I don't think I'll get any father on that one then I did on the marriage issue just except it as the facts because even if their wrong they will vote that way)
3. The Orthodox Jewish community (though many times it has voted based on social issues) is furious over the passage of the marriage destruction bill and is now more willing to be one issue voters. (Weprin's extras on this issue really hurt him) (further more once Jews saw this race was winnable it ended a long standing tradition in certain circles of voting for the front-runner)

[NY Jew]

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and

Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

I know you couldn't mean something like when I predicted that this would be won based on marriage.

though you could mean this prediction (I guess the moral is don't give advise that only works for you)

I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.

[NY Jew]

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

The same thing can apply to their supporters.
 

this is many times a true statement which is why Turner did better then the polls had him (Orthodox Jews are always underestimated in the polls Russians usually are too)

[NY Jew]

Couple of points:

1. The district is not entirely Jewish (it isn't even majority Jewish; working off the ACS data I posted way up thread, only 68.6% of the district is white and Italian and Irish ancestries came out at 20.7%. Of course there can be double counting in the latter, but my point isn't hard to grasp, I hope), not all Jews in the district are Orthodox, and not all Orthodox Jews in the district are the sort that wear those nifty black hats and vote with such remarkable discipline when an election is deemed to matter. So you can't just point to specifically Jewish (and by that you actually mean specifically Orthodox and/or Soviet and so on; basically an Other, I suppose) and pin this defeat on that. Obviously when a key swing block says 'fyck you', there's trouble ahead. But it is not enough on its own, not when its perfectly possible for a Democrat to win this district while losing such voters by miles.

2. It's not an affluent suburban district either, even if does have a few affluent residential areas here and there. This is a basically working class district with some richer parts and a massive immigrant population (only a minority of its inhabitants speak English as a first language ffs). It's certainly not poverty stricken and is less working class (significantly so) than most of the districts it borders, but then it's in Brooklyn and Queens.

if not for gay marriage this would have been a much closer race and Weprin would have won by a few thousand votes (the overall climate is important in any election but the Orthodox vote would have been his biggest base if not for marriage instead of Turner's)

[NY Jew]

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?

The vote patterns pretty much show that the population there is a lot different than the one in NY-9, it's not something I just made up. These are two separate places, they are not equal. But, you can believe whatever you like.

Not everyone in the district that is conservative is Orthodox Jewish, there are other conservative Democrats all throughout it. There are also Republican pockets in Queens.

many of those pockets are Orthodox, the are also many Italian, and Irish pockets in this district (just for the record marriage redefinition is very unpopular amongst Irish and Italians just not even close to as much as it is with Orthodox Jews).  Personally I think Weprin might have lost his own ED if the district would have included his house (assuming I'm not making a mistake in the ED he lives in)