Primaries to watch Tuesday (3/5/24) (Super Tuesday) (outside of presidential)

[Minnesota Mike]

A question on CA, I've seen people claim the 2 party share of the vote each party gets has some predictive power in terms of how the election will go in November. That Republicans generally improve from the primary to the general in terms of the vote so any seat democrats don't win over 50% in the primary will likely vote Republican in the general. How true is this?

I agree about some predictive power, Nov results are usually in the ballpark of the party primary vote, but it's actually Republicans who never win unless they get the most votes in the primary. IIRC since Top 2 was instituted in 2012 no Republican has won a congressional race where their party did not get the most votes in the primary. There are not a lot of cases of the opposite either but it has happened.

[Minnesota Mike]

Simitian v. Low is not decided yet - any ideas as to how that will be resolved?

Results will be certified April 12. After that recount. After that?

[Minnesota Mike]

Alert: it actually happened. Low and Simitian are now tied. Legally if it stays this way there will be a 3-way runoff, but there may be a tiny number of votes left, and a recount was guaranteed weeks ago.

I have read that any candidate or voter can request a recount BUT they have to pay for it. No request no recount. So do Low or Simitian prefer a 50/50 shot at a 2 way race or a guaranteed 3 way race. How about Liccardo? Recounts ain't cheap.