Nevada Primary/Caucus (Feb. 6/8) Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

If Nevada Republicans had just gone along with the primary Trump beats Haley by 40 Tuesday and Haley drops out by Wednesday.  Instead the "race" will continue until South Carolina.

[Minnesota Mike]

Looks like the Nevada D. primary will have a higher raw vote number than S.Carolina's.

That's what happens when you mail every registered voter a ballot. I would also bet more Republicans vote in the meaningless primary than in the caucus.

[Minnesota Mike]

AP Link

https://apnews.com/hub/ap-nevada-election-2024-results

[Minnesota Mike]

What’s taking so long?

State law does not allow any results to be released until every voter in line statewide has voted. Usually there can be a delay of an hour or more but with how light turnout is expected to be I don't see how this is a problem.

[Minnesota Mike]

It really does not matter tonight as the results will be pretty much meaningless but Nevada has been pushing to be the FITN primary, can you imagine competitive first primary with no results until midnight eastern?

[Minnesota Mike]

Biden underperforming throughout Rural NV, particularly in Eureka County where he is only up 61%-36%.

There are only 28 freaking votes in Eureka.

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly surprised "None of these Candidates" is getting only 6% in the Dem primary. If there was ever an opportunity to cast a harmless protest vote over Biden running again this was it and Dem voters overwhelmingly said the were good with Joe.

[Minnesota Mike]

15K more votes counted in Dem primary, 5K more in the GOP primary

DEM: 125,728 (89% in)
Biden: 112,414 (89.4%)
None of these: 7,017 (5.6%)
Williamson: 3,714 (3.0%)

GOP: 74,292 (86% in)
None of these: 47,077 (63.4%)
Haley: 22,611 (30.4%)
Pence: 2,895 (3.9%)

Looks like Nevada may actually top SC as highest turnout so far for Dems by the end

The Dem caucus turnout record was 118K in 2008. It shows how much better primaries are for turnout when the Biden/Williamson contest had more participation than Obama/Clinton.

Any guesses on Rep caucus turnout tonight? I say under 40K.

[Minnesota Mike]

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

I think the VI caucuses may have some zombie candidates. The usual suspects are listed as candidates by the Green Papers and I'm not sure if they can remove their names or not.

[Minnesota Mike]

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

I think the VI caucuses may have some zombie candidates. The usual suspects are listed as candidates by the Green Papers and I'm not sure if they can remove their names or not.

Normally caucuses don't have ballots, so there is nothing to remove their names from.
I guess if someone is hell-bent on voting Pence or Burgum nothing can stop them. 

It's not really a traditional caucus though, more of a firehouse primary. Both Nevada and the VI charged a fee to get on the ballot. Nevada removed the names of those who dropped out (anything to help Trump) but I'm not sure what the VI are going to do. Also the VI are using ranked choice voting so that would suggest more than 2 candidates.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://stcroixsource.com/2024/02/06/early-v-i-republican-caucus-gets-national-attention-but-infighting-continues/

Virgin Islands.

Though all but two have since dropped out of the race, the candidates for the U.S. presidential nomination on the local GOP ballot are Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Perry Johnson, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Donald Trump because each paid the party $20,000 to qualify.

The voting locations for Thursday’s caucus are:

St. Croix – 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. at La Reine Chicken Shack, Christiansted.

St. John – 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. at Lovango Rum Bar, Cruz Bay.

St. Thomas – 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. at Bluebeard’s Castle, Estate Taarneberg, Charlotte Amalie.

Official results will be released during the Republican Party in the Virgin Islands election night party at the Morningstar Buoy House Beach Resort at Frenchman’s Reef on St. Thomas. Doors will open at 6:30 p.m. Results are expected by 8 p.m.