DFL wins trifecta in Minnesota

[Minnesota Mike]

Last spring when posters here were predicting Republicans would take over the MN House some smart guy from MN said there was a better chance Dems took over the MN Senate. He was laughed at. I wonder if that smart guy is still around .

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Stowydad/status/1597672308772319234

[Minnesota Mike]

At face value, Dems winning a legislative majority in a Biden + 7 state isn't all that impressive, but it's important to rmbr that geography in MN for Dems sucks and the median legislative seat is like Biden + 2.

It seems like this cycle, Dems were very successful at upsetting in a lot of narrowly-Biden suburban seats around MSP that they lost in 2020 due to "downballot lag" or whatever and people just assumed that would happen again. Tbh, this seems like a really common theme in a lot of state legislature results, particularly in the midwest.

If suburban shifts continue, I could see MSP single-handedly locking Rs out of the legislature, but we're not there yet.

Time to play hardball and replace the R leaning 4-4 map with a 6-2 Dem one that makes MN-1 a Biden seat and MN-8 a Duluth to St. Paul snake.

I was just about to ask what the odds are the Democrats grow a spine and do some reredistricting with their new trifecta.

Zero. Nada. Not happening. Zilch.

As I have said elsewhere besides be antithetical to Minnesota's "good government" ethos they just don't have the votes for something that controversial. The biggest opponents of a mid decade redistricting would be the Minneapolis and St Paul DFL delegations who are vehemently opposed to those cities being split.

[Minnesota Mike]

At face value, Dems winning a legislative majority in a Biden + 7 state isn't all that impressive, but it's important to rmbr that geography in MN for Dems sucks and the median legislative seat is like Biden + 2.

It seems like this cycle, Dems were very successful at upsetting in a lot of narrowly-Biden suburban seats around MSP that they lost in 2020 due to "downballot lag" or whatever and people just assumed that would happen again. Tbh, this seems like a really common theme in a lot of state legislature results, particularly in the midwest.

If suburban shifts continue, I could see MSP single-handedly locking Rs out of the legislature, but we're not there yet.

Time to play hardball and replace the R leaning 4-4 map with a 6-2 Dem one that makes MN-1 a Biden seat and MN-8 a Duluth to St. Paul snake.

I was just about to ask what the odds are the Democrats grow a spine and do some reredistricting with their new trifecta.

Zero. Nada. Not happening. Zilch.

As I have said elsewhere besides be antithetical to Minnesota's "good government" ethos they just don't have the votes for something that controversial. The biggest opponents of a mid decade redistricting would be the Minneapolis and St Paul DFL delegations who are vehemently opposed to those cities being split.

No one will care, I think DFL members might see it differently as long as their seats stay safe (which they will even if a bit less Dem). One way to do it would be to make MN-1 and 8 around Biden +7, not overdoing it with an egregious gerrymander but one that would give Dems a step ahead in a 2022 type year and not seem as absurd as Biden +15 with Minneapolis cracked all over.

You can rationalize why the DFL should do a mid decade redistricting all you want but as someone who has been following MN politics for over 40 years I just see no chance of it happening. I have given some of my reasons above and FWIW I have never heard a peep from any Minnesota politico even bringing up the possibility. The DFL did not redistrict in 2012 when they last had a trifecta and they won't now. Heck I'm not even sure it would be legal in MN.

[Minnesota Mike]

Update on some elections stuff working it's way through the MN state legislature about half way through the session. Only the automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who have completed their prison sentence has passed both houses and been signed into law, the rest have cleared at least one committee remain alive.

- Automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who have completed their prison sentence. (Signed into law)
- MN joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
- RCV for state and federal elections.
- Establish 18 days of in person early voting that will work like ED voting (MN already has in person absentee voting but that is a little more cumbersome)

A lot of this will probably be rolled into an omnibus elections bill and with narrow DFL majorities no guarantee's of final passage but my guess is at least some of the measures become law.

[Minnesota Mike]

Update on some elections stuff working it's way through the MN state legislature about half way through the session. Only the automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who have completed their prison sentence has passed both houses and been signed into law, the rest have cleared at least one committee remain alive.

- Automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who have completed their prison sentence. (Signed into law)
- MN joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
- RCV for state and federal elections.
- Establish 18 days of in person early voting that will work like ED voting (MN already has in person absentee voting but that is a little more cumbersome)

A lot of this will probably be rolled into an omnibus elections bill and with narrow DFL majorities no guarantee's of final passage but my guess is at least some of the measures become law.

Even RCV. Based. 10 years worth of legislative gridlock to make up for!

Have the DFL been united so far, no quislings like in NY or WA before 2018?

So far they have been very united. So far they have passed bills concerning abortion rights, clean energy, drivers license for non documented residents, voting rights for ex felons among other things. A lot of other big stuff will wait until the end of session like it always does.

[Minnesota Mike]

Crazy how Minnesota has the most left-wing legislature in the nation. Some of the stuff they're passing is disgusting.

Example?

The MN Leg is nowhere near the most left wing in the nation. More progressive than most but not in the same league as CA among others.

[Minnesota Mike]

Any word on when the Minnesota legislature will pass the Interstate Compact?

Right now it looks doubtful it will pass. The interstate compact was not included in the omnibus Senate elections bill passed last week. It was in the House version and theoretically could be added back to the bill in conference committee but I doubt it. RCV is also dead, it was replaced by a "blue ribbon commission to study the matter" in the senate bill.

[Minnesota Mike]

Right now it looks doubtful it will pass. The interstate compact was not included in the omnibus Senate elections bill passed last week. It was in the House version and theoretically could be added back to the bill in conference committee but I doubt it. RCV is also dead, it was replaced by a "blue ribbon commission to study the matter" in the senate bill.

Is this due to the Senate hinging on a few Blue Dogs?

Neither the Interstate compact nor RCV are controversial to non-Trumpists, and the Senate isn't up until 2026. This should be the perfect time to catch up on a decade of stalled bills.

Dems only have a 1 vote majority in the Senate, it's actually pretty impressive how much they have held together especially on social issues. Personally as someone who's politics lean left I am not sold on RCV or especially the  Interstate compact. I think there are legitimate reasons to be against both.

[Minnesota Mike]

Any word on when the Minnesota legislature will pass the Interstate Compact?

Right now it looks doubtful it will pass. The interstate compact was not included in the omnibus Senate elections bill passed last week. It was in the House version and theoretically could be added back to the bill in conference committee but I doubt it. RCV is also dead, it was replaced by a "blue ribbon commission to study the matter" in the senate bill.

What is dead may never die.

Well goes to show what I know. Interstate compact passed the Senate today as part of a different elections bill. It's not done yet but it's looking really good for NPV since the Senate was viewed as the tougher chamber to get through.

Other MN Leg updates.

Marijuana legalization has passed the House, it's up in the Senate on Friday. Bills are slightly different in both houses so it will need to go to conference committee and then repass both houses but that's likely.

Enhanced background checks on gun purchases and a red flag law has passed the House after two days of debate. On to the Senate.

[Minnesota Mike]

Around 1 week left in the MN Legislative session. They have to be done by midnight a week from Monday but the House hopes to be finished by next Thursday, my guess is it goes until next weekend. Republicans have been dragging things out in protest of getting steam rolled on most items but while they can slow things down they can't stop the Democratic majority if they hang together.

Since this is an elections board an update on election related items.

-Restore voting rights of felons after sentance completion. Passed, signed by Governor.

-Automatic voter registration. Passed, signed by Governor.

-Pre-registration to vote for 16- and 17-year-olds. Passed, signed by Governor.

-Optional permanent absentee voter list for automatic delivery of an absentee ballot. Passed, signed by Governor.

-Extend in person early voting to 18 days. In omnibus bill, likely to be passed and signed into law. (slightly different than in person absentee voting)

-For a political party to maintain major party status, their candidate must receive at least 8% of votes at a state general election beginning Nov. 7, 2024. In omnibus bill, likely to be passed and signed into law. (goodbye weed parties).

-State law would show Minnesota’s support of the Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote. In omnibus bill, likely to be passed and signed into law.

- Ranked Choice voting. Dead for this session.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not sure this is the place for this but some non election highlites of the MN Legislative session.

-Enhanced background checks on gun purchases and a red flag law. Passed Senate, likely to pass House and be signed by Governor.

-Marijuana legalization. Passed both houses, in conferance committee to iron out differences. Very likely to be re-passed and signed by Governor.

-Paid family and medical leave. A self-funding family and medical insurance benefit account modeled after the state’s unemployment insurance fund would be created and managed by a new Family and Medical Benefits Insurance Division within the Department of Employment and Economic Development.

A new tax on employers and employees would ultimately fund the account; the premium rate would be 0.7% of the employee’s wages, half paid by the employee and half paid by the employer. In conferance committee to iron out differences. Very likely to be re-passed and signed by Governor.

[Minnesota Mike]

Today the House and Senate passed the state goverment/elections omnibus bill mentioned above. Just a governors signature (guaranteed) away from the mentioned provisions becoming law.

A little housekeeping from the conversation at the start of this thread, it is possible to redistrict mid decade, at least legislative seats, as the bill did change a handful of state house and senate seats. Before anyone gets too exited it was all minor changes to clean up the maps and did not change political lean of any of the effected districts at all.

[Minnesota Mike]

Well the 2023 MN Legislative session is over and it really was extraordinary. The Democrats had the trifecta for the first time since 2013-14 and really took advantage. Progressives got almost all their agenda through despite narrow margins (34-33 in the Senate, 70-64 in the House). I'm not exaggerating when I say this will be for better or worse the most impactful legislative session in at least 30 years. I won't go into everything since nearly every budget bill was a Democratic wish list but a high level overview.

- Republicans made a huge mistake in 2022 when they did not take a compromise deal on spending the COVID funds from the Federal Government, as a result Democrats had a massive $17B surplus, most of it one time money, to play with. Reps thought they would take the House and never even considered they would lose the Senate in 2022.

- This session Democrats for the most part resisted the usual SOP when there is a surplus of big rebates and/or tax cuts for everybody. Instead there was a modest $260 per person rebate for those with mid/lower income and massive cuts/credits for low income families with kids. One study estimated the changes will reduce childhood poverty by a third.

- There are no more blue dog Democrats in Minnesota. For the most part the conservadems from rural Minnesota have been replaced moderate/liberals from the Twin Cities suburbs.

- Even with a massive surplus and tax cuts they raised some other taxes to make sure their new programs would be continued to be funded.

[Minnesota Mike]

A really good recap for those interested.

https://minnesotareformer.com/2023/05/23/democrats-made-a-big-bet-on-themselves/

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1662120328275828739