DFL wins trifecta in Minnesota

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/MinnesotaDFL/status/1590256795901374465?t=Xby2-WU7DvZjZWG6-W...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wow, and it wasn't a gerrymander, right? Impressive!

[ilikeverin]

We love to see it!!!

Imagine telling someone 20 years ago that the DFL would win MN-03 by a 20-point margin, too.

[Not Me, Us]

What are the margins?

Edit: +1 in the Senate and +6 in the House

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Best of all the State Senate mostly came down to the 3rd district, an ancestrally D seat in the Iron Range held by one of those former turncoat Democrats who became an independent and caucused with the Republicans. He retired, but at the end of last night the DFL candidate was ahead and though a lot of precincts were still out, most of them were very small townships...and Hermantown, a pretty D Duluth suburb. And all analysts said that if he held out, the Democrats would hold the State Senate...so I was optimistic.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I believe that makes 4 new trifectas for the Democrats: MI, MN, MA, and MD. Something about the M…

[PSOL]

The DFL is the most impressive state party in the US, and its giving us another example of how great it is.

[Minnesota Mike]

Last spring when posters here were predicting Republicans would take over the MN House some smart guy from MN said there was a better chance Dems took over the MN Senate. He was laughed at. I wonder if that smart guy is still around .

[Dani Rose]

Petitioning to rightfully add Tim Walz to the "Midwestern governors/governors-elect manufacturing blue waves in their states" club alongside Whitmer and Shapiro.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Last spring when posters here were predicting Republicans would take over the MN House some smart guy from MN said there was a better chance Dems took over the MN Senate. He was laughed at. I wonder if that smart guy is still around .

I also bet the "MUH TRENDS" people would insist the 3rd Senate District was Safe R.

[Nyvin]

DFL holding SD-3 and SD-4 was incredible.  I thought those districts were long gone.

They also flipped the Washington County SD-41 and kept the GOP to tight margins in a lot of other Twin City metro districts like 32, 33, and 35.   Flipping 36 and 45 kinda seemed easy.

[Alben Barkley]

Petitioning to rightfully add Tim Walz to the "Midwestern governors/governors-elect manufacturing blue waves in their states" club alongside Whitmer and Shapiro.

Eh... is Pennsylvania really the Midwest?

Does it matter though?

Minnesota and Michigan have trifectas now and Dems won the PA state house. Incredibly impressive.

[Dani Rose]

Petitioning to rightfully add Tim Walz to the "Midwestern governors/governors-elect manufacturing blue waves in their states" club alongside Whitmer and Shapiro.

Eh... is Pennsylvania really the Midwest?

Does it matter though?

Minnesota and Michigan have trifectas now and Dems won the PA state house. Incredibly impressive.

Culturally, they're similar enough to us that I consider them Honorary Midwest. Especially after last night, y'know.

[Koharu]

Glad to see this, despite my old stomping ground counties voting in the 60-70% range for Jensen and pals. At least I know my dad helped Walz and Ellison stay in.

[Podgy the Bear]

Petitioning to rightfully add Tim Walz to the "Midwestern governors/governors-elect manufacturing blue waves in their states" club alongside Whitmer and Shapiro.

Nice to have you on board over the last few weeks with plenty of good information and a positive spin.  Such an improvement over the red avatar bedwetters who continue to doom and complain the day after a great result.

[Dani Rose]

Petitioning to rightfully add Tim Walz to the "Midwestern governors/governors-elect manufacturing blue waves in their states" club alongside Whitmer and Shapiro.

Nice to have you on board over the last few weeks with plenty of good information and a positive spin.  Such an improvement over the red avatar bedwetters who continue to doom and complain the day after a great result.

I acknowledge how hard it is to be positive in this environment, because I was lowkey bricking it for half the day yesterday, but at this point it's just like...c'mon, guys. Let's take the W. Let's celebrate.

Also, thanks very much!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The DFL really lucked out in Senate District 4. This guy must be a beast of a campaigner. The previous incumbent was a retiring conservadem and...

Republican Dan Bohmer 14,202 46.80%
Democratic-Farmer-Labor Rob Kupec 15,929 52.49%
WRITE-IN WRITE-IN 214 0.71%

Not even super-close!

Now as for why this is a lucky break and why Kupec has to be so great at things, to understand this district is basically the Minnesota side of the Fargo metro, the urban part of it in Moorhead (which is where my parents went to college and met) is pretty DFL (basically a college town), but the surrounding territory is typical GOP heartland. And here's the Gubernatorial vote in each of the two State House districts:

4A (the liberal Moorhead district):
Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis Steve Patterson and Matt Huff 124 0.94%
Legal Marijuana Now James McCaskel and David Sandbeck 265 2.00%
Republican Scott Jensen and Matt Birk 5,032 38.02%
Democratic-Farmer-Labor Tim Walz and Peggy Flanagan 7,639 57.71%
Independence-Alliance Hugh McTavish and Mike Winter 100 0.76%
Socialist Workers Gabrielle M. Prosser and Kevin A. Dwire 72 0.54%
Write-In WRITE-IN 4 0.03%

And 4B:
Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis Steve Patterson and Matt Huff 154 0.89%
Legal Marijuana Now James McCaskel and David Sandbeck 276 1.60%
Republican Scott Jensen and Matt Birk 10,261 59.32%
Democratic-Farmer-Labor Tim Walz and Peggy Flanagan 6,415 37.09%
Independence-Alliance Hugh McTavish and Mike Winter 160 0.93%
Socialist Workers Gabrielle M. Prosser and Kevin A. Dwire 25 0.14%
Write-In WRITE-IN 6 0.03%

That equals 15,293 votes for Jensen and 14,054 for Walz. Basically a 51-46 victory for Jensen. And yet Kupec outran Walz by 6-7 points in each district!

And Kupech is no conservadem, he talks about "protecting reproductive freedom" and fighting climate change on his site...the only conservative thing about him is he claims to also support hiring more police and claims "As your next state senator, our police officers and first responders will always have an advocate in St. Paul." but I could easily see even a Twin Cities Democrat saying something like that.

So either as said he's one hell of a campaigner or his opponent was complete garbage...either way he's the hero of the moment!

EDIT: A brief bit of more research and I found it out, he's the former chief meteorologist for Fargo's FOX affiliate (he left to run for office), those sort of areas love their local media personalities. Definitely a top notch S-level candidate recruitment then!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Now on to legalize weed and destroy these silly weed parties that always seem to get like 3% each.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Now on to legalize weed and destroy these silly weed parties that always seem to get like 3% each.

One has already lost its major party status, the other is all but certain to after 2024.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Stowydad/status/1597672308772319234

[Hope For A New Era]

I believe that makes 4 new trifectas for the Democrats: MI, MN, MA, and MD. Something about the M…

Imagine if Tranel had won in Montana.

EDIT: A brief bit of more research and I found it out, he's the former chief meteorologist for Fargo's FOX affiliate (he left to run for office), those sort of areas love their local media personalities. Definitely a top notch S-level candidate recruitment then!

I swear being prominent in local news is practically a free 5 points or more in any election these days. I mean, look at Ronchetti. Is it just me, or is this effect getting stronger?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I believe that makes 4 new trifectas for the Democrats: MI, MN, MA, and MD. Something about the M…

Imagine if Tranel had won in Montana.

EDIT: A brief bit of more research and I found it out, he's the former chief meteorologist for Fargo's FOX affiliate (he left to run for office), those sort of areas love their local media personalities. Definitely a top notch S-level candidate recruitment then!

I swear being prominent in local news is practically a free 5 points or more in any election these days. I mean, look at Ronchetti. Is it just me, or is this effect getting stronger?

I think it has to being seen as a familiar face or "trustworthy" figure at a time when politics feels very disconnected and untrustworthy to a lot of folks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At face value, Dems winning a legislative majority in a Biden + 7 state isn't all that impressive, but it's important to rmbr that geography in MN for Dems sucks and the median legislative seat is like Biden + 2.

It seems like this cycle, Dems were very successful at upsetting in a lot of narrowly-Biden suburban seats around MSP that they lost in 2020 due to "downballot lag" or whatever and people just assumed that would happen again. Tbh, this seems like a really common theme in a lot of state legislature results, particularly in the midwest.

If suburban shifts continue, I could see MSP single-handedly locking Rs out of the legislature, but we're not there yet.

[Devils30]

At face value, Dems winning a legislative majority in a Biden + 7 state isn't all that impressive, but it's important to rmbr that geography in MN for Dems sucks and the median legislative seat is like Biden + 2.

It seems like this cycle, Dems were very successful at upsetting in a lot of narrowly-Biden suburban seats around MSP that they lost in 2020 due to "downballot lag" or whatever and people just assumed that would happen again. Tbh, this seems like a really common theme in a lot of state legislature results, particularly in the midwest.

If suburban shifts continue, I could see MSP single-handedly locking Rs out of the legislature, but we're not there yet.

Time to play hardball and replace the R leaning 4-4 map with a 6-2 Dem one that makes MN-1 a Biden seat and MN-8 a Duluth to St. Paul snake.

[Bojack Horseman]

At face value, Dems winning a legislative majority in a Biden + 7 state isn't all that impressive, but it's important to rmbr that geography in MN for Dems sucks and the median legislative seat is like Biden + 2.

It seems like this cycle, Dems were very successful at upsetting in a lot of narrowly-Biden suburban seats around MSP that they lost in 2020 due to "downballot lag" or whatever and people just assumed that would happen again. Tbh, this seems like a really common theme in a lot of state legislature results, particularly in the midwest.

If suburban shifts continue, I could see MSP single-handedly locking Rs out of the legislature, but we're not there yet.

Time to play hardball and replace the R leaning 4-4 map with a 6-2 Dem one that makes MN-1 a Biden seat and MN-8 a Duluth to St. Paul snake.

I was just about to ask what the odds are the Democrats grow a spine and do some reredistricting with their new trifecta.