MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

You hardly ever see a candidate just short of endorsement drop. Maybe this isn't over.

[Minnesota Mike]

They're certainly not that democratic, but there is nothing quite like watching a political convention with actual stakes.

I have been railing against the power of Minnesota's convention system for 30 years but it sure can be interesting. Democrats often vote against the endorsed candidate but Republicans almost never do and it usually almost clears the field for the convention winner.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/PGless/status/1525609251707699201

And there it is. Jensen wins.

[Minnesota Mike]

I believe all the candidates previously said they’d abide by the endorsement and drop out if they didn’t win it. Is this true? If so, Jensen will be the GOP nominee.

Rick Stanek former Hennepin County sheriff skipped the convention and has hinted he will go to the primary (Stanek has been off the trail for a few weeks after an auto accident). Qualls had said he would abide the endorsement but there was some bad blood that developed late in the convention over the Murphy endorsement (long story) so maybe he runs in the primary. It's probable that a some dude or two also joins the primary since anyone with $400 burning a hole in their pocket can file but Jenson is now the prohibitive favorite.

[Minnesota Mike]

Qualls releases a statement saying he will “transition back to private life.”  So he sticks to his pledge to abide by the convention results.

[Minnesota Mike]

Filing closes in 10 minutes and it does not look like Rick Stanek is going to file so Scott Jenson has a clear path to the Republican nomination (he does face a perennial gladfly candidate).  Also the Corey Hepola 3rd party bid bites the dust as he does not file.

[Minnesota Mike]

Some more filing day highlights.

Doug Wardlow (R) did file to run against Republican endorsed candidate Jim Schultz for AG. Wardlow had said he would abide the convention endorsement but he backtracked.

Jeremy Munson and Matt Benda filed to against Brad Finstad in the MN-01 regular election. Finstad is the nominee for the special election held the same day as the primary.

Pot Party candidates are running in Mn-01, MN-02 and all the statewide races but AG.

The 2 MN Supreme Court judges running for reelection are both unopposed. Both are viewed as liberals.

[Minnesota Mike]

Early voting in MN starts 1 month from today.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/VoteBetty/status/1567582676365844483

Tough to walk back your abortion position when this exists from earlier this year.

[Minnesota Mike]

Any reason why the D in the SoS race is only leading by 4 in that poll?

SOS race broke down more along party line in the SUSA poll. I think that is just the fact that neither candidate is particularly well known and undecideds (20%) were not pushed hard. My guess/hope is when those undecideds have to make a choice they will follow their vote for the top of the ticket and break toward Simon(D).

[Minnesota Mike]

The thing about Jensen ads too is that he needs to make them count because he's very low on money. After the primary and him and Walz officially became nominees Walz waived the state public funding program which would've given him $245k. Because of this Jensen actually gets his share meaning he gets $490k. Except Walz has over $5 million on hand and is raising well over that $245k a month. Jensen meanwhile can't raise any more money, so he's stuck with the $490k plus the $580k he had remaining at the primary. So he had barely over a million dollars and that was in mid-August. Walz has five times that and he can keep fundraising.

Obv Walz is safe but for some reason I have a gut feeling Simon is in danger, at least if we assume Ellison is losing. Thoughts?

Why would we assume Ellison is losing? I agree he or Blaha are the most vulnerable but I think Ellison is in better shape than he was 4 years ago even though the environment is not as good for Democrats.

- The big thing that almost sunk him 4 years ago was domestic violence allegations by an ex girlfriend that Ellison denied. Those allegations have pretty much disappeared over the past 4 years. His ex claimed to have damning cellphone video but never produced it and have been no other allegations. Still troubling but but as an issue it has faded into the background.

- He has had a relatively successful term highlighted by the conviction of Derrick Chauvin.

- Head to head matchup. No Pot party or other 3rd party candidate to lower the number needed to win for Republicans. To beat Ellison Shultz will need over 50% of the vote, something no Republican has done statewide in MN since 1994.

You can never assume a Democrat is losing statewide in Minnesota. It will happen again someday but when it does it will be an upset.

[Minnesota Mike]

This may be the worst answer ever to the "say something nice about your opponent" debate question. Or maybe the best, I really don't even know anymore.

https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1582531314884169728

[Minnesota Mike]

Ellison wins. DFL keeps its streak alive.

Ryan Wilson (R) also conceded the Auditors race to Julie Blaha (D). That race was even closer than the AG race, 0.34%.

It was extremely close but the streaks of no statewide Reps winning since 2006 and No Rep getting 50%+ statewide since 1994 continue.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1590528705511968768

The 2022 MN Gov map looks a lot more like Biden 2020 than Walz 2018. Rural parts of the state continue to trend right but it will not matter if Dems continue to get 70% in Hennepin/Ramsey.

[Minnesota Mike]

Pretty cool tool showing how all Minnesota cities and townships voted for Governor.

https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2022/11/how-every-minnesota-city-and-township-voted-for-governor-in-2022/